John Belden says Anthropic is holding back its Mythos model because of security concerns.
“They're holding back that particular model right now because of the security concerns that it that it has in it.”
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John Belden
1 episodes · 16 quoted claims
Belden says that ten years ago, choosing an ERP system effectively meant choosing between SAP and Oracle.
“Ten years ago, if you said you got to pick an ERP system, you would have said, well, okay, it's got to be SAP, or it's gonna be Oracle.”
Belden says CIOs choosing an AI orchestration layer must now pick among Google, Anthropic, OpenAI, Microsoft and SAP.
“Well, are you gonna pick Google? Are you gonna pick Anthropic? You're gonna pick Open Ai, you're gonna pick Microsoft, you're gonna pick SAP, right?”
Belden says labor unions may refuse to allow AI in companies as a condition of signing agreements, which could cancel AI projects already under way.
“the potential for, uh, labor unions and how labor unions actually say, you know what, we're not gonna allow AI to come into these companies if you want to sign us an agreement.”
Belden says the per-unit cost of AI is falling while usage is rising, which makes total spend hard to predict.
“while the per unit costs are going down, the utilization rates are going up, right?”
Belden says systems integrators are embedding AI into their own implementation processes.
“These systems integrators today, right, with their implementation processes, they're embedding AI into the implementation processes.”
Belden says systems integrators are often incentivized to deliver what they proposed months earlier, and clients lock them into those deliverables.
“SIs are oftentimes incented to deliver what they actually proposed on, right, you know, six months ago, and we end up locking them in”
Belden recommends that SI contracts include a review at least every six months to check market best practices and adjust terms.
“at least once every six months, we're gonna go look at the market and we're gonna see what the best practices are”
Belden says SI deals traditionally allowed independent auditors to check that prices stayed competitive at the rate card level.
“you could say we are going to allow an independent auditor to come in and audit your prices to make sure”
Belden recalls that, in his manufacturing career, supplier contracts with automakers required prices to fall each year as the carmakers moved manufacturing offshore.
“And because we know you're moving your manufacturing offshore, our expectations are that our prices are going to go down year after year after year.”
Belden says a human must remain in the middle of AI-assisted work so that someone at the SI can be held accountable for answers.
“So inevitably, you've got to have that that human in the middle right now.”
Belden says SAP and Oracle own the context of ERP systems today, which he thinks gives them an advantage over Anthropic, OpenAI and AWS.
“big providers like SAP and Oracle, they own the context today for the ERP system, right?”
Belden recounts presenting a CEO with a breakdown of roughly 900 risks for a big transformation, after which the CEO asked for the one thing to get right.
“And I had just gone through this great big decomposition of risks. There's probably 900 risks on here, right?”
Belden says many companies executed transformations well and still ran their company into the ground, so execution quality does not explain failure.
“you can go out there and find a whole bunch of companies that executed really, really, really well and still ran their company into the ground”
Belden says most companies suppress learning on large projects because they do not want to deliver bad news to steering committees.
“Most companies, when they start on these big projects, they ultimately suppress learning, right?”
Belden says this is the most exciting period of his 35-to-40-year career.
“I think this is the most exciting time that I've been involved with in the last thirty five, forty years of my career.”