Five of the seven key Senate battleground states in the Times's polling voted for Donald Trump by double digits.
“Kansas, Iowa, and Alaska. Five of those states, by the way, voted for Trump by double digits.”
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Nate Cohn
1 episodes · 21 quoted claims
The Times's final Michigan Senate poll found Abdul El-Sayed ahead by eleven points, a six-point gain from its September poll.
“the poll in Michigan found Dr. El-Sayed up by eleven points, which is his largest lead of the cycle, a six-point gain from our last poll in September.”
Mary Peltola's lead in the Times's Alaska poll fell from seven points to one point between its last two polls.
“That was a decline from a seven-point lead in our penultimate poll. She has had other issues in this campaign.”
Nate Cohn said Republicans redrew congressional maps to their advantage over the past year, which shields many Republican House members from a Democratic wave.
“one factor is that the Republicans have redrawn the nation's congressional maps to their advantage over the last year.”
Only one third of Senate seats are up in 2026, and Nate Cohn said few of them are vulnerable Republican seats.
“Only one third of the seats are at stake, and it so happens that this year there aren't very many vulnerable Republican seats up for grabs.”
Kentucky's sixth congressional district, around Lexington, voted for Donald Trump by 15 points and is considered a toss-up.
“Kentucky's sixth district. It's around Lexington. It voted for Trump by 15 points. That race is considered a toss-up”
Nate Cohn said Democrats have done exceptionally well in the early vote, but Republicans may turn out on election day as they did in 2016 and 2020.
“It is very clear that the Democrats have done exceptionally well in the early vote. It is also possible, however, and we've seen this happen before, like in 2020 or 2016, that Republicans just show up to vote on election day.”
Maine counts much of its vote by hand, and in recent elections about 20% of its vote was still uncounted at noon on the Wednesday after election day.
“Maine counts their vote in much of the state by hand, and in recent elections, 20% of the vote is still uncounted at noon on Wednesday.”
Nate Cohn said Alaska's vote count takes about a week because of its far-flung, mail-voting population.
“Alaska, I think, has a better excuse, which is that it has this huge, far-flung population that's voting by mail, but that takes them a week to count.”
Nate Cohn said Alaska's ranked-choice tabulation, if needed, would happen around November 18th.
“Yeah, and so, like in Alaska, I think that's November 18th.”
Nate Cohn said Democrats' best case in the third scenario is about 53 Senate seats, possibly 54, and the minimum to win is 51.
“I think that the best case for Democrats in this scenario might be something like 53 seats in the Senate, maybe even 54, though I think that would be pretty lucky.”
In the 'tsunami' scenario, Nate Cohn said Democrats could win the House popular vote by double digits and claim about 250 seats.
“In the House, the Democrats could win the popular vote by double digits and claim 250 seats, maybe.”
Nate Cohn noted that Kansas has not voted Democratic for the Senate since 1932 and said a Democratic win there is possible in the tsunami scenario.
“Maybe the Democrats win Kansas, a Senate state that hasn't voted Democratic since 1932, again, not just by a little bit, but by five points or more.”
Nate Cohn said a Democratic tsunami would be the biggest election for either party since perhaps 1974, the election right after Watergate.
“I think you'd have to go back maybe to 1974, the election right after Watergate, to come up with something that felt this big.”
Nate Cohn described the South Carolina Senate race, with Darlene Graham as the Republican, as surprisingly close in a state rarely competitive in federal elections.
“That's the race where Darlene Graham, Lindsey Graham's sister, is running in what seems to be a surprisingly close race in a state that is never really competitive in federal elections.”
Nate Cohn explained that typical pollsters now give extra weight to Trump voters so they match their share of the past vote, for example 50% in Pennsylvania.
“If I take a poll of Pennsylvania and Trump voters are 40% of the sample, and we know they were 50% of the vote, the typical pollster will make them 50% of the vote right now.”
Nate Cohn said the Times's polls make sure to reach the correct number of registered Republicans in each state, which he said other pollsters do not guarantee.
“First is that we do everything we can to make sure we reach as many Trump voters as possible, including by ensuring that in any given state, we reach the correct number of registered Republicans.”
Nate Cohn said the Times's final polls would have been three points more Democratic under the methodology it used in 2022 and 2024.
“And I'll note that our final polls, as blue as they were, would have been three points bluer.”
Nate Cohn said two thirds of the Texas vote had already been cast, and that the Times's data showed it leaning Democratic.
“Or take Texas. Two thirds of the vote has already been cast in Texas. It's a big proportion, and in our data, it looks really Democratic.”
Nate Cohn said Republicans have spent hundreds of millions of dollars in Texas this cycle, which he took as a sign they see real risk there.
“The Republicans have spent hundreds of millions of dollars in Texas this cycle.”
Nate Cohn said it has been 16 years since a party won a Senate seat in a state that voted for the other side by double digits in the prior presidential election.
“It's been 16 years since a party won even one seat that voted for the other side by double digits in the prior presidential election.”