Person
1 episodes · 22 quoted claims
Tyler Cowen estimates that US government consumption is about 18% of the economy, health care almost 20%, and education six to seven percent.
“government consumption is what 18%, healthcare is almost 20%, I'm guessing education is six to 7%, the nonprofit sector”
Tyler Cowen predicts that AI will raise annual economic growth by about half a percentage point.
“I think they will boost the rate of economic growth by something like half a percentage point a year.”
Tyler Cowen describes China as a middle-income country whose per capita income is only slightly ahead of Mexico's.
“They're just a middle income country. They struggle to tie per capita income with Mexico. I think they're a little ahead of Mexico now.”
Tyler Cowen says typical economic growth during the Industrial Revolution was about 1.5% a year.
“Typical rate of economic growth during that period was about one and a half percent”
Tyler Cowen cites Greg Clark as saying England had sustained economic growth of about 1% a year starting in the 1620s.
“for the first time in human history that I know of, we have sustained economic growth, according to Greg Clark, starting in the sixteen twenties of about 1% a year.”
The Beatles broke up in 1970, whereas the Rolling Stones are still performing.
“I mean, they broke up in 1970, right? Rolling Stones are still going.”
Tyler Cowen says Ringo Starr joined the Beatles after the band replaced their earlier drummer Pete Best.
“Ringo not quite a founder, but basically a founder, cause Pete Best was drumming and they got rid of him right away.”
Tyler Cowen says his book GOAT, about the greatest economist of all time, was written mostly for AI readers.
“the last book I wrote, you know, it's called G.O.A.T. Who's the greatest economist of all time? I'm happy if humans read it, but mostly I wrote it for the AIs.”
Tyler Cowen estimates a call transcript alone would carry about 25% of the value of seeing the person in a talent interview.
“having only the transcript would be worth much, much less, I would say, if that's what you're asking. Yeah, it would be maybe 25% of the value.”
Tyler Cowen says that when he began his career an economist might earn about $40,000 a year, and only Milton Friedman and Paul Samuelson had notable outside income.
“you would earn, like back then, maybe $40,000 a year, like two people, Milton Friedman, Paul Samuelson, had outside income”
Tyler Cowen says he chose between economics and philosophy as a career in the late 1970s.
“it was either economics or philosophy, and I saw back then this would be like the late nineteen seventies.”
Tyler Cowen cites the United Arab Emirates as an autocracy where the worst people have not risen to power, contrary to Hayek's tendency.
“There are quite a few autocracies in the world today where the worst people have not risen to the top. UAE would be, I think, the most obvious example.”
Tyler Cowen says family-based Gulf monarchies have proven more stable and meritocratic than he expected in 1980.
“There are these family-based Gulf monarchies with very large, clannish interest groups of thousands of people that have proven more stable and more meritocratic than I ever would have dreamed, say, in 1980.”
Tyler Cowen says Woodrow Wilson reintroduced segregation in parts of the US civil service.
“reintroduced segregation of the civil service in some key regards”
Tyler Cowen says Herbert Hoover was an impressive candidate who made bad decisions by allowing deflation and a fall in nominal GDP.
“Hoover on paper was a great candidate and was an extremely impressive guy. I think he made one very bad set of decisions relating to deflation and letting nominal GDP fall.”
Tyler Cowen says Garry Kasparov lost the second match against Deep Blue after making an error in the Caro-Kann Defense in the final game.
“in the final game, you know, Kasparov made that bonehead error in the Carogan Defense.”
Tyler Cowen says Renaissance Florence and its countryside had only about 60,000 people yet produced art still valued today.
“I mean, look at artistic production in Renaissance Florence. There's what, 60,000 people in the city, the surrounding countryside.”
Tyler Cowen says youth crime has been falling since the 1990s.
“youth crime has been falling since the nineties, so the very bottom of the distribution also is getting better.”
Tyler Cowen says Emergent Ventures has funded many Stanford people who are doing well as a group.
“Emergent Ventures has funded a lot of people from Stanford, uh, as far as I can tell, as a a group, they're doing very well”
Tyler Cowen says his portfolio is mostly diversified, heavily US-weighted mutual funds with no trading.
“it's a lot of diversified mutual funds with no trading, basically, uh, pretty heavily U. S. weighted, and nothing in it that would surprise you.”
Tyler Cowen says his wife works for the SEC, which restricts the investments he can make, such as most individual stocks.
“my wife works for the SEC, so we're not allowed to do most things, like even to buy most individual stocks.”
Tyler Cowen says he spent about four months reading dozens of books to prepare to interview Stephen Kotkin, an expert on Stalin.
“So now I'm prepping for Stephen Kotkin, who's an expert on Stalin and Soviet Russia, and that's been a blast. I've been doing that for like four months, reading dozens of books”