In brief
Ethan Mollick argues that ChatGPT and similar tools are a real productivity breakthrough, and that companies should start experimenting with them now. He says early studies show 30 to 50 percent gains, individuals can use the tools with no corporate rollout, and waiting for a finished strategy or clear legal rules means falling behind.
The tension is between speed and certainty. Mollick says no one, including R&D teams and consultants, knows how best to use the tools, so firms must learn by trying them in daily tasks. Yet the tools invent facts, raise ethical and legal questions, and may reshape hiring and jobs in ways nobody can yet predict.
Facts
Stated by the speakers. Each quote matches the transcript, which shows what was said, not that it is true.
Ethan Mollick says GPT-3, the base generation of the technology behind ChatGPT, had existed for over a year before ChatGPT and produced only okay work.
“GPT three, which is, uh, the sort of base generation of this technology has been around for over a year, and it was okay, right?”
0:02:48 · Ethan Mollick · GPT-3 · 2022
Ethan Mollick says the models went from D-minus to B-minus performance with ChatGPT, and an A-minus level with an internet-connected model like Bing.
“Suddenly, they became B minus students in classes, and now, if you use a even more advanced model like Bing that's connected to the internet, now they're A minus students.”
0:03:16 · Ethan Mollick · Model capability · 2023
The first productivity results on these tools came from two controlled experiments, one on business writing and one on coding.
“one is a controlled experiment that was done with people writing business writing, the other was a controlled experiment with coding”
0:03:40 · Ethan Mollick · Productivity studies · 2023
Ethan Mollick says an American plant adding steam power in the 1800s raised productivity by about 25%, which he uses as a comparison for the 30 to 50% gains seen with ChatGPT.
“the, uh, change that happened in productivity when a American plant added steam power in the eighteen hundreds was about 25% in productivity”
0:04:08 · Ethan Mollick · Steam power · 1800s
Host Kurt Nikish notes the early ChatGPT productivity studies are preliminary and not yet peer-reviewed.
“These are preliminary studies, they are not peer-reviewed yet, but what kind of applications are being opened up specifically in this moment”
0:04:30 · Curt Nickisch · Study status · 2023
Ethan Mollick says ChatGPT reached 100 million users faster than any product known in history.
“it was the fastest product to chat GPT to 100 million users of any product we know of in history”
0:05:48 · Ethan Mollick · User growth · 2023
Ethan Mollick says programmers have shifted from Stack Exchange to ChatGPT as their way of deciding what to code next.
“everyone in programming is using this to help with coding, right? So, that's sort of moved from Stack Exchange to ChatGPT, uh, as their method of figuring out what to code next.”
0:06:45 · Ethan Mollick · Programming · 2023
At the time of recording, J.P. Morgan had banned the use of ChatGPT in the office.
“there are a number of organizations, I know, like J. P. Morgan, at at the time we're talking here, banned the use of, uh, ChatGPT in the office”
0:07:40 · Ethan Mollick · Corporate bans · 2023
Ethan Mollick gives the example of using Bing AI to learn Porter's five-forces framework and research the precision agriculture industry, saving about twelve hours of work.
“you could tell it to learn how to do a Porter's five-forces analysis and then look up everything about the precision agriculture industry”
0:04:41 · Ethan Mollick · Research use case · 2023
Ethan Mollick says a controlled study found Google's medical AI model gave advice at least equal to doctors' advice for common illnesses.
“some of the fine-tuned models, like Google's medical model, is giving in, uh, you know, another controlled study is giving advice that's at least equal to that of doctors to patients with common illnesses”
0:10:21 · Ethan Mollick · Medical AI · 2023
Ethan Mollick says ChatGPT achieves top scores on every creativity test available, though he says it is not sentient.
“It maxes out every creativity test we have, even though it's not really sentient, right?”
0:11:43 · Ethan Mollick · Creativity · 2023
Ethan Mollick raises as one hiring scenario the idea of a prompt engineering role, where people skilled at getting AI to work are far more productive.
“this idea that there's some prompt engineering role in the future, that some people are just good AI whisperers”
0:15:27 · Ethan Mollick · Prompt engineering · 2023
Ethan Mollick explains these AI systems predict the next word in response to a prompt while trying to please the user, which is why they sometimes make things up.
“they're predicting the next word that to to give you, the next token to give you in response to your prompt, and they're doing that to try and maximize your happiness”
0:19:21 · Ethan Mollick · Hallucination · 2023
Ethan Mollick says he used AI to create a credible deepfake video of himself giving a speech he never gave, in about four minutes.
“I was able to, using AI, create a comp- a a very credible, uh, deep fake video of me giving a speech I never gave in my voice, and it took about four minutes to do, right?”
0:20:14 · Ethan Mollick · Deepfakes · 2023
Ethan Mollick expects OpenAI to release GPT-4, a model much larger than the GPT-3.5 models behind ChatGPT.
“there is going to be elements of what's called GPT four release, which is a model that's much larger than the ChatGPT GPT 3.5 models we've been playing with”
0:21:37 · Ethan Mollick · GPT-4 · 2023
Ethan Mollick says Google has by far the largest AI research team and has been cautiously rolling out products.
“Google has by far the largest research team on AI, and they've been cautiously rolling out products and have specialized products in different industries that might happen soon.”
0:21:37 · Ethan Mollick · Google AI · 2023
Ethan Mollick names Anthropic's Claude as another large language model available alongside ChatGPT.
“there's other companies, like Anthropic has Claude, which you can get access to.”
0:22:09 · Ethan Mollick · Competing models · 2023
Ethan Mollick says diffusion-based models, used for example in DALL-E, create images from text and may soon do the same for video.
“there are these what are called diffusion-based models, which are often used for creating images.”
0:22:09 · Ethan Mollick · Diffusion models · 2023
Host Kurt Nikish says businesses and individuals began widely discussing ChatGPT's potential to change work in late 2022.
“Late in 2022 is when businesses of all sides and individuals started talking about how this easily accessible type of AI really was poised to change work as we knew it, really this time.”
0:00:59 · Curt Nickisch · ChatGPT launch · 2022