In brief
Generative AI is drawing enormous attention, but the speakers argue it should not crowd out older forms of AI such as prediction and optimization. Those older tools remain valuable, and generative AI can make them easier to use. Companies that already invested in data and AI skills are best placed to benefit. The speakers' advice is to learn about it and act now, because waiting is risky.
The central tension is excitement versus real deployment. Most data leaders expect transformation, yet very few have anything in production, and regulation, culture and skills slow things down. Sam pushes back on citizen development and on big-tech concentration. Shervin and Tom counter that fear and paralysis are the bigger risks, as with early websites. The same debate plays out in schools, where banning AI is contrasted with teaching people to use it well.
Facts
Stated by the speakers. Each quote matches the transcript, which shows what was said, not that it is true.
Tom Davenport said a survey he ran with MIT CDO IQ and AWS found that about 80 (apparently percent) expected generative AI to transform their organizations, but only six had a production application.
“80 said they thought it was going to transform their organizations, but only six had a production application that they had deployed.”
0:03:53 · Tom Davenport · Generative AI adoption · 2023
Tom Davenport said DBS, the biggest bank in Southeast Asia, had about 35 generative AI use cases but none in production, largely for regulatory reasons.
“And they said, Yeah, we've got like 35 use cases, but none of them are in production yet, largely for regulatory reasons.”
0:05:06 · Tom Davenport · Bank deployment · 2023
Tom Davenport said Randy Bean's annual survey of data leaders had long shown figures in the low 20s on having a data-driven culture, down from the 30s in some cases a few years earlier.
“Have kind of bounced around in the low 20 area for years, and it's even getting worse. In some cases, it was in the 30s a few years ago.”
0:11:06 · Tom Davenport · Data culture
Tom Davenport said Randy Bean's latest survey, after twelve years of surveys, more than doubled the share of data leaders reporting a data-driven culture.
“in the latest survey that I think will be published by the time this podcast is out. It more than doubled these figures to organizations.”
0:11:37 · Tom Davenport · Data culture · 2024
Tom Davenport said Marriott staff told him about a Tripadvisor review saying the pool was too cool, which older sentiment analysis could not interpret as sarcasm.
“They said somebody wrote on Tripadvisor the pool was too cool, and you know, how do you interpret that?”
0:08:06 · Tom Davenport · Sentiment analysis
Tom Davenport said the advanced data analysis feature of ChatGPT works by writing Python code to do the analysis.
“The advanced data analysis part of ChatGPT works by writing Python code to do all of that stuff, so it's really quite astounding.”
0:07:27 · Tom Davenport · ChatGPT analysis · 2023
Tom Davenport said a two-line prompt to a generative AI system can produce about three pages of machine learning model creation, analysis and feature engineering.
“a two line prompt will get you three pages of machine learning model creation and analysis and feature engineering”
0:06:32 · Tom Davenport · Machine learning automation
Tom Davenport said OpenAI had a little over 300 employees, far fewer than Google's many thousands, yet still beat Google to market with generative AI.
“OpenAI was sort of an interesting example because they had 300 and something people employed there, compared to what 80 zero at Google, or maybe it's even bigger, but they still beat them to market.”
0:17:31 · Tom Davenport · OpenAI versus Google · 2023
Tom Davenport said OpenAI is now closely tied to Microsoft.
“Generally, of course, now they're in bed with Microsoft in a big way, so that I was going helps them.”
0:18:06 · Tom Davenport · OpenAI and Microsoft · 2023
Tom Davenport said BMW is training a very large number of white-collar workers (transcribed as '80 zero', likely 80,000) in citizen development.
“BMW training 80 zero white collar workers on how to do citizen development.”
0:13:36 · Tom Davenport · Citizen development · 2023
Tom Davenport said his next book is about the citizen movement, in which non-professionals take part in system development, automation, analytics and AI.
“my next book is about the citizen movement, you know, non professionals in system development and automation and analytics and AI.”
0:10:28 · Tom Davenport · Citizen development
Tom Davenport said he is writing his next book with Ian Barkin, who comes from an automation background.
“I'm writing this book with Ian Barkin, who he comes more out of an automation background.”
0:12:49 · Tom Davenport · Book collaboration
Tom Davenport said chief information officers are encouraging citizen development because the queues at IT departments for building applications are getting longer.
“the lines at IT for developing applications are getting longer, not shorter.”
0:13:36 · Tom Davenport · IT backlogs
Tom Davenport said he co-authored an MIT Sloan Management Review piece arguing that AI is a poor field for fast followers because accumulating data takes a long time.
“I co-authored a piece with Vikram Mahidar in SMR a number of years ago about AI. Is not a good area to be a fast follower in, because it takes a long time to accumulate the data that you need”
0:15:28 · Tom Davenport · Fast follower strategy
Shervin Khodabandeh said someone at a World Bank event reminded them that AI has existed since the 1950s.
“at the World Bank event a couple of days ago, somebody reminded us that, well, AI's been around since the 50s.”
0:02:02 · Shervin Khodabandeh · AI history · 1950s
Shervin Khodabandeh described a 10-20-70 rule of thumb in which 10 percent of AI value effort is the model, 20 percent the technology backbone, and 70 percent embedding it in the organization.
“10 is about the model and the algorithm, and 20 is about the technology backbone and all the connectivity and everything that's related.”
0:09:01 · Shervin Khodabandeh · 10-20-70 rule
Shervin Khodabandeh compared hesitation over generative AI to early-2000s organizations that questioned whether they needed a website and later paid for falling behind.
“it sort of reminds me of very early 2000 with the internet phenomenon, and so many established and famous organizations, public and private, basically said, Why do we need a website?”
0:13:56 · Shervin Khodabandeh · Internet analogy · 2000
Tom Davenport said a Stanford study found little cheating with generative AI in schools.
“It was a study out of Stanford saying that there's not much cheating happening because of generative AI in schools.”
0:19:00 · Tom Davenport · AI and cheating · 2023
Sam Ransbotham said a Pew Research study found that awareness and use of ChatGPT fell steadily as age increased.
“Pew Research had a study out recently that was talking about who had heard of ChatGPT and who was using it, and it was perfectly inversely correlated with age.”
0:20:12 · Sam Ransbotham · ChatGPT awareness · 2023
Tom Davenport said some Babson College faculty asked the academic technology office whether AI could be shut off on campus.
“some actually went to the academic technology office and said, Can we shut off AI on our campus?”
0:20:31 · Tom Davenport · AI in universities
Tom Davenport described a copywriting experiment with three conditions: a plain word processor, an advanced type-ahead system with accept-or-reject suggestions, and full generative AI output.
“One was just a word processor, no generative AI, the 2nd was a sort of a advanced type ahead system where you could accept or reject”
0:24:04 · Tom Davenport · Copywriting experiment · 2023
Tom Davenport said that in the experiment, copywriters preferred the intermediate type-ahead tool, which produced higher quality work and more online click-throughs.
“And in general, the people, the copywriters, liked the intermediate stage more, and it produced higher quality work and that got more click throughs for online.”
0:24:41 · Tom Davenport · Copywriting experiment · 2023