Have Republicans Already Blown the Midterms?

Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Dan Pfeiffer. Today you're gonna hear my conversation with Amy Walter, the publisher and editor in chief of the Cook Political Report. The midterms are now less than two weeks away, and I thought Amy would be the perfect person to set the scene as we head into the final stretch. We talk about the latest in the Senate races, the House map, whether Republicans redistricting gambit worked, and voters attitudes towards Trump, the economy and the war in Iran, and so much more.

We'll get to that conversation in a moment, but before we do, Crooked Con is fast approaching. The weekend after the midterms, November fifth through seventh, we'll be in DC. for a weekend full of live shows, conversations and so much more. If you're anyone working in politics or interested in politics, this is a can't miss event. We'll be breaking down what just happened in the midterms and setting the stage for what's to come in 2028.

Head over to crooked con dot com to get your tickets now. And while I have you, I want to make a pitch for the message box, my Substack newsletter. It's the best way to get serious analysis of the midterms based on the data and my way too long experience working in politics. When the election happens, I'll help you understand what happened, why it happened and what it means for 2028. I have a special pre-election discount for Pod Save America listeners.

Go to crooked dot com slash yes we dan to get 20% off for an entire year. Okay, here's my conversation with Amy Walter. Amy Walter, welcome back to Pod Save America.

Goddamn, I'm very happy to be here.

Two, a little more than two weeks to go before the election. Feels like we would never get here. These are the longest two weeks we've had in a very long time. How are you feeling?

Um, I'm tired. And like every vo- I feel like every voter in a swing state who's saying, just let it end, let's just just let it be over, right? The the as you very well know, the last two weeks of the campaign, and probably m the last five days, are the absolute worst. Because it's now everybody just posting theories and conspiracies and conversations they had with someone they went to high school with, and what does this mean?

And you know, the we're we're not gonna get any polling, I think that's gonna make us change any of our theories of the case of this election between now and election day. We're really basically locked in and we gotta wait for the results.

yeah, I'm s I'm counting on some more polls. I'll be honest with you, I feel like Nate Ko- I mean, we'll the New York Times have more polls, Senate polls, just more polls. but Yes,

uh, it's we're gonna get more polling. I'm just saying I wouldn't expect that all of a sudden you're gonna o- open up polls that show, oh, wow, this is real. Oh, so and so's opened a seven point lead now.

yeah, that's right. So you wrote back a few weeks ago, on October seventh, that this political environment is as brutal for Republicans as any you've seen in at least twenty years. We're now a couple weeks or week and a half after that. I s d I assume that assessment still holds. Why is this a political environment so brutal for Republicans?

Um, and Dan, you remember this election quite well. And Oh, I do, this is, um, uh, we're all coming back. And this feels very 2006 deja vu. Because you have a president with an approval rating under 40%, which is where George W. Bush was at this point in 2006, an unpopular war and corruption being sort of the center of the conversation in Washington. Back then, it was Jack Abramoff, now it is all of the all of the things.

Um, there are also some sex scandals that were going on in 2006. We have that carryover in in 2026. But really a feeling, um, among the American public about, you know, um, a a deep, deep frustration with the direction of the country, um, even deeper frustration in 2026, with the direction of the economy, with inflation being a big factor. Um, but what, uh, what you're also seeing that reminds me of 2006 is the real.

An energy and enthusiasm difference between Democrats and Republicans for most of the Trump era, even when Democrats were more enthusiastic in 2018, Republicans didn't fall through the s the floor, right? I mean, it helped that the Kavanaugh hearings came out a couple weeks before the election. I think that helped to energize some of those less engaged Republican voters, so that was something of a boost. But I think even going into that election, the expectation was that there were gonna be some places where, because of how badly Trump was doing with independents and how motivated Democrats were.

Those swing seats, those seats that Hillary Clinton won, those were gonna be all but impossible for Republicans to hang on to. But that how deep into the Trump seats they could go was limited by the fact that Republicans showed up this year. And I think this was the case in 2006. How deep Democrats go into Republican territory is really driven by the fact that independents are gonna show up for Democrats, Democrats are gonna show up for Democrats, but are Republicans gonna sit home or are they gonna show up?

And every indication we have right now is that they're not enthusiastic, they're frustrated with the president for a whole range of reasons, but mostly the cost of stuff and the war in Iran. And they y- y- we've spent how much, how much money has been spent in the in the last three weeks in these races, right?

more than $200 million.

Millions and millions of dollars, yeah,

to it, more than 200 to try $1 million.

exactly. And in if you're in Alaska or Texas or Ohio or Iowa, your goal isn't to try to win persuadable independents, it's you are sending signals to your base about why it's important for you to turn out. And thus far, I mean, to me, what's the most te- telling in some of the polling we've seen recently is that opinions of the Democrats remain above water, and opinions of the Republican candidates are below water. Which which says, Boy, you've spent a lot of money and I don't know that you're getting what you thought you were gonna get from all of it.

it is, uh, there's so mu- so much to unpack there, you know, it is. The 2006 is the most obvious historical analogy. I do think you look at a whole bunch of different factors. This is a worse political environment for Republicans than 2006 was the. You can argue maybe the Democrats were better positioned in 2006 than they are now, uh, just because of the brand at the time. But either way, Trump is more unpopular than Bush by some measures.

The economy's obviously much worse. Um, you know, he's under thirty. He's thirty points underwater on the economy, fifty points underwater on gas prices. At some point, inflation. yeah, and ga- I mean, gas being over four a gallon is, you know, that's a political killer. The, you know, so it like it, it, it could be the. I would say these midterms are always hard to judge because we the typical you and I are a little different, I think, but the typical person judges in terms of seats won, not house popular vote, which is what it really is.

Because everyone's like, Wow, Obama lost sixty three seats, that must be the worst midterm ever. But Obama only lost the popular vote by like six and a half points. It just happened to be there were all these seats in play. But on its face, this is a very, very bad map for Republicans. And I do feel like they have fewer levers to pull than they

that's right.

did in 2006, in part because TV ads clearly matter less than they did back then. I mean, it's like, that's to me is the big question of they spent all this money. As far as we know, and we're all trusting the polls, and we'll talk about whether we can do that a little bit. But if you trust the polls, they have not moved. The Democrats are no less popular than they were before in a typical, uh, environment where you were spending hundreds of millions of dollars on an election.

You would see, even

they're not. if you They're negatives driving the negatives have up. C- like,

gone, the negatives aren't moving. And I don't know if that's because, and I'd be interested in your take on this. Is it because the the attacks are the wrong ones, and it's mostly transcultural attacks, you know, anti trans cultural stuff? Or is it that people aren't the people you're trying to reach aren't seeing the ads because of how they're used to see ads, or people have just tuned out? They've already made their decision and noth- none of this information is gonna make a difference.

I don't know what you're thinking.

I, I know I. I was just asking someone this very same question, um, and it's probably like everything, a combination of everything you just laid out. The first is I think Republicans came into as they saw the environment deteriorating, they were like, Okay, this isn't great for us, but here are the things we have going for us. Um, socialism, look, test it in a poll. Everybody hates socialism. Uh, so we're gonna link everything to socialism. Um, we still, even as we're underwater, this would be Republicans saying this, uh, even if we're underwater on inflation and the economy, we are still above water on immigration, crime, taxes.

So let's just lean into those four things. We'll lean into immigration, right? If my opponent gets in, he's gonna give m uh, go reopen the borders, give all your money away to illegal immigrants. By the way, he'd also raise your taxes. I cut your taxes. Remember, we had that that no tax on tips, wasn't that great? And then finally, if you put Repub- uh, if you put Democrats in charge, all these crazy woke things are gonna happen.

And it's not that voters don't care about those issues, but when you compare it to wait a minute, I. It just cost me $100 to fill up my car, and you're telling me that I have to worry about these other things. No tax on tips, like, that's, that's fine. I like, I, okay, and yeah, and I'm really happy the president closed the border, and I don't wanna give, uh, you know, welfare to illegals or.

But that is not my priority today. I need you Republicans to give me an answer for how you're gonna get the cost down, which is what the president told me he was gonna do in 2024. He was gonna lower costs, he wasn't gonna get us into an a forever war in the Middle East. Those two promises have been broken, and I don't see you trying to fix it. Because the only way they would be able to fix it, Dan, is to to come out and say, uh, this war needs to end.

I'm not gonna vote to continue the war. We gotta get the strait open, and, um, I'll do what, uh, everything I can. You know, when the president's right, I stick with him, but in this case, he's wrong. But they can't, they're in a total bind there. The other thing, and I heard this from a Republican really early in the cycle when I w wrote something about the so what are these socialism attacks gonna work? And this person, uh, this Republican said, You know, I've been doing a lot of polling on this.

And the challenge is that, um, you know, people don't really know what they think about socialism. I it's still a it's still a concept in a way that so if you ask it in a poll, do you like socialism? People go like, I don't know. That sounds like it's kind of a bad word, right? I I hear it in in in context, it seems like, or out of context, I'm sorry, it seems like something negative. But then if you ask me to describe it, I don't exactly know what that means.

And so we've tested these messages, and I've seen them other people test them as well in polling. You know, somebody who's identified as MAGA versus somebody who's identified as a socialist, and the MAGA label is more toxic than the socialist label. In part because people know what MAGA is, right? They're like, Oh, I, I get that, I know what that is socialist. I don't 100% know. It's Bernie Sanders, but it, it, it just doesn't relate in the same way.

And look, if if Democrats get in charge, if there was a Democratic president who said, Hi, I'm a socialist and these are the five things we're doing, then, yes, it could be a bigger problem for Democrats to have to decide. Are am I gonna associate with this candidate and and their policies or not? But right now, it's just this big overarching term that is being thrown at people that is not resonating, uh, in the way that I I think many Republicans had hoped it would.

It doesn't probably help the Republicans case that the one of the two most prominent socialists in American politics, uh, is someone who Trump keeps fawning over and inviting to the White House and hanging out with. Yes, is Melania, yes, cause I mean, most things, I mean, everyone remembers that. I mean, even Democrats, like the folks at Third Way, were in a panic that m that if Mondani became the mayor, he would be weaponized against all these Democrats.

And you know, Mondani isn't showing up in a single ad anywhere. Uh, in part, because I think one, it's absurd to use the mayor of New York to run to associate with someone running the second district of Iowa. Like, that was never gonna work under any scenario. But also Trump has buddied up with him and he's had a bunch of these things that are seem very, you know, he's filling potholes and he's helping people get food Well, that's and stuff.

That's the thing. If social.

Mom Daddy had come in and, you know, was Fire the police like every chief. And yeah, exactly exactly crime goes out of control, all b- businesses leave New York City, right? Um, then, yes, that would've been an af- a a more effective cudgel. But just the name and even the AOC Bernie stuff, I mean, this is where the conversation about, you know, ideology, personality and the environment and partisanship all kind of muddle together and it's not as clear.

You know, again, ask people, do you like, uh, socialism? Not really. Do you like Medicare for all? Yeah, that sounds pretty good, right? Do you do you think that b- d do do you like capitalism? Yeah, sure. Do you think we should have more taxes on billionaires? Yeah, yeah, I like that too, right? So people are a little bit all over the place when it comes. The things that Bernie Sanders is talking about tax corporations and give m Medicare for all.

He's not a toxic position today. Um, so that a also, it's I I think, amazing. takes the sting out of the socialism attack.

Yeah, it is, it's been I, you know, I've been in these rooms. I know how this goes, where it's like, every, every poll, every piece of research says. All people care about is costs. Like, it's one, two and three on everyone's agenda, you know? And so then you're like, Well, we're gonna test a bunch of our cost messages, and then those aren't gonna move voters, they don't so we're gonna try work. to talk about something else.

But the problem of that, that is a very understandable checker's move. But the problem is that if you the main thing is always the main thing, and if you're off the main thing, you look like you're ignore. You're just reinforcing the critique that you don't care about costs. Because anytime you turn on the TV, all you see is Republicans in Republican ads talking about something other than costs. Hm,

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I wanted to, as we think about this environment. There's been this debate kinda kicked off by your co colleague Charlie Cook about whether this is a blue wave or a red undertow, and what he means by that. A blue, by Charlie's definition, a blue wave is, you know, is some is a validation of Democratic politicians, Democratic ideas, the Democratic Party. A red undertow is an election that is a rejection of Republicans. How do you? How do you like?

What's your take on that idea? Cause that's sort of been this, like that's become in the preemptive factional debate within Democratic Party about what all this means. And I'm gonna ask you a little bit more about that later. Charlie's term of red undertow is being used is become part of, like, part of the conversation. I'm curious what your take on about that is. what that? Yeah, Yeah,

um, so we both know that every midterm election is a referendum on the party in power, and it's not a referendum on the party that wins. You can be super popular, um, as a Democrat in this environment, and win, you can be kind of unpopular and win. It's not about you, right? And it's not about your ideas, and it's not about all. This is definitely a ba- It's always a backlash, um, to whoever's in power, so that's true to me.

What I took from that analogy, what it's, uh, is look, here's the blue wi- the blue wave is the Democratic enthusiasm, which has been there right since 2025. We saw it in the governor's races, we've seen it in special elections, we've seen it primaries. Added to that blue wave are independents, which we haven't talked about yet. But man, even in in 2006, I can't remember what Democrats won independence by, maybe it was twenty, uh, it might've been a little bit, maybe it was in the teens.

But they're leading right now by like twenty three points, a generic democrat, uh, with independents. Trump's approval rating with independents is 26%. I mean, the if you're sitting in a swing district, you you you cannot win. When the pre as a Republican and the president's at 26% with independents, like, that's just deadly, right? So that's the blue wave is Democrats enthusiasm, really angry independents. But what could keep, what could make this wave go into territory where it doesn't belong?

I e. Trump plus ten, twelve, thirteen districts and states is the undertow are Republicans who aren't showing up, and th- that y- Democrats wave is dependent on a whole bunch of Republicans staying home. Um, even in places where they, you know, they have such a decided advantage, like, I Alaska and Texas, and um, that I I I feel like is is the um, the difference between Democrats having a good night, a great night, or like a historic night is is the is the undertow piece.

The other, um, the other thing that that I do think is important to appreciate about where Democrats go on this. And somebody else wrote about this. I can't, uh, remember where I s I saw this. But the gap between Democrats approval rating and their lead on the generic ballot, your net approval rating, like, let's say the net approval rating for Democrats were five and they were leading on the generic ballot by eight. Okay, so that's a three point difference.

But what we're seeing now that is his could be historic is how unpopular Democrats are, but how big their lead in the generic ballot is right. So that there is there u- usually you, you're not. Those two things are not supposed to work together. You're not supposed to be this unpopular but have this big of a lead. Some of that unpopularity, though, as we know, Dan, comes from Democrats themselves, right? Like Democrats don't like their own party, um, for various reasons, but they're gonna turn out and they're voting for Democrats.

Um, the, uh, I think the challenge for the Democratic leadership going into 2027 with a Democratic House and maybe a Democratic House and Senate is the expectations of the base. Now are so different from where they were in 2018 or even 2006. This is more. They want more than just putting a check on Trump, they want a real change to the system, um, and they want something more substantive than um, than just, you know, we're kinda moving around the edges.

So I I think that's gonna be the more challenging dynamic going into 2027 than w- whether Democrats are liked by the broader public.

yeah. It's it's also interesting because the reason the red undertow matters so much is here is because the map is so much of the map is taking place in red America. I mean, even the vast majority of swing districts are in districts that Trump won by even a little bit. And then the Senate, like, if if this was a Senate map where we were, that looked a little bit more like 2006 or some of that, where we're, we're, we're running someone, and we're trying to f- or even what could be the twenty, you know, the twenty, twenty eight map, where we're trying to win.

In. Wisco- more swing states or more blue states, then we would be less

So this is a totally dependent on different. Exactly, you don't need li- I I was, I've been saying that for a long time. If the Senate map ran through, like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia, like that, that's a no brainer for what happens, but that's not where it's going. And when I also make the comparison, so when Democrats lost those sixty seats in 2010, there were sixty districts that Democrats held in 2010 that Obama either lost or won by less than five.

Sixty, there were thirty seven of those in 2018. Republicans held Hillary Clinton's seats, or Trump won by less than five. They're basically now a little over a dozen of those. So if you're picking up more than if the net right, when Democrats are are the bigger, the gains in the House, they are coming from places that Trump won by six, seven, ten points. Um, and even on the Senate side in 2006, you had, um, John Tester win in Montana state that Bush had carried by twenty points, but every other state Democrats flipped, Bush had won by single digits.

So this would be really has, uh, you know, something we haven't seen before, which is a party flipping to win control. You Democrats have to do this, which is to flip two double digit seats. I in a time where, as you s rightly pointed out, we're even more partisan and more dug into partisanship. So

yeah, the uh, the those states, that's, you know, twenty years ago had it was very. It was very common to have a Democratic senator, yeah, and uh, in the case of

a Republican senator.

Kefauver and all of that and all these plus twenty seats. And Repub- in Republican, you know, Susan Collins, Olympia, Snow and places like Maine. We're in a different world now. Um, the the other interesting thing here is, you know, people are. I was at a a fundraiser the other night for a candidate I won't name, and there were a bunch of former Obama and Democratic staffers there. Part of the Barrett and Asper, and we were talking.

And, eh, these are all hardened political professionals with many complaints about everyone afraid to believe the polls, right? Everyone very nervous about the polls. The what I th- like, and understandably so after 2016 and 2020, um, people very nervous about polls. Democrats in particular were very worried about getting their hearts broken. We're a very sensitive group. Um, what I f- found interesting is that in previous elections, even in 2020, when the polls look really good, there would be all these Republicans out there saying to people like you, to Politico elsewhere, or releasing internal polls that show something very different.

Or saying, like, laughing at Democrats who were optimistic, like in 2020 about Iowa, Alaska, South Carolina Senate seats. You don't. You may hear something different, cause you talk to a lot more people than us than I do. Certainly, certainly more Republicans, but I you don't really hear that this time, like, and if you look at the spending patterns, Republicans seem to believe you work this, the polls. and I think that's, Yeah,

I think that's exactly right. I mean, are there differences in the ways that the two parties see a handful of these states, especially ones that are further out in the margins? For sure? But you're not gonna hear Republicans say, no, I don't. I don't think Alaska's real, right? I don't think Ohio and Iowa are real. I think what they are counting on and what your friends fear, what Republicans are hoping, what Democrats fear is the polling.

A all of the polls are within the margin, right? So that's always dangerous. No, even for these polls where Democrats ahead, no one's at fifty. Um, and you start to think, okay, well, have Democrats basically has the Democratic candidate peaked? They've gotten all the available voters and they're at 48%. That's where they're gonna end up. And that all the people who haven't been participating in the polls, um, again, it's not because these polls are biased or whatever.

You can't find people who don't want to take, uh uh, participate in in giving their opinion. Um, many of those people are gonna be sort of disaffected Republicans. Um, if they just decide on election day, like, screw it, I'm gonna go out, I, I'm, I'm gonna just suck it up and vote for the Republicans. Cause I, it's more, even though I'm mad at Trump and I am m mad about this war, it's would be worse to have Democrats in control of the Senate.

That that's a for today, that's the one thing I can control. I can't control Trump, I can't control this and that. Yeah, these races just kinda get there. The other is, you know, what are these undecided? Uh, uh, so that's piece number one is of, you know, those those Republicans who show up who we we aren't capturing in the polling on either side. I mean, both sides will admit that's what the we don't know, um, what we don't know.

To me, the other big question is, you know, I'm sitting here in Maine right now, and you know, no one knows what's gonna happen up here, you know? It, there is this, and and this is the real interesting tension point and the different tension points. I look at a place like Maine, where if you just all I told you, Dan was Trump's approval rating in the state is like 32%, and the generic is Dem plus like six or something like that, right?

So they're like, we want a Democratic Senate and we don't like Trump. Well, then the Democrat should win, right? But there still are people holding on, the people who don't want Trump and they don't want a Republican Senate are still having reservations about Troy Jackson or have some affinity to Susan Collins. Some similar thing happening in Michigan, do those folks, uh, ultimately stay home? Do they show up? Uh, that is a big, or do they all just break at once, right?

That's what we if we just assume the part that everything's partisan. And which has been the theory of, uh, many Republicans from the beginning of the cycle. That at the end of the day, we're gonna do all this and everyone's just gonna throw their jersey on. And so the red states, the deep, deep red states, will barely stay red, but we're gonna l- you know, the the blue ones and the purple ones go then, right? When you you end up, uh, with, uh, an outcome where Democrats could come up short, even though they came really close,

yeah, I mean, that is that is the like. That's the thing that if you like, are trying to put the hopeium aside for a second. And like, you know, the good, they all, you know, all the positive arguments, right? But we have, I, I would argue, certainly in these Senate races, in most cases, we have much better Democrats, a much better candidates. We

all, all of it. have political They yep, environment where I think yeah,

our, I think, are running hands down better campaigns and how they're. They've used their money. We're raising money on the hard side, we have, we're running, you know, we're sort of narrowing that money advantage by running more ads. We're doing all these things. But at the end of the day, you need almost every single thing to break your way. To win

that's right.

a Trump plus eleven state, and in the, at least the New York Times Senate polls in all of these states, all these red states for the Senate states, the um, the the majority of voters, or the plurality of voters at least, want a Republican control of the Senate, right? And so that's true in Ohio, yeah, I mean, and it's, yeah, I think the hardest it's

one, this is where it gets really complicated, because the hardest one is like, Texas, I think, is one of the I. I, you're right, I can't remember now. The Senate polls, I think Ohio that flipped, so Ohio is now more Democratic than it was earlier. So the Senate polls in the summer certainly pointed that way in June and July, said these Democrats are looking strong. But every one of these dark red states Alaska, Ohio, Texas, Iowa, they prefer a generic Republican.

But the Senate polls that came out in September showed something a little bit different. Which was I, as I remember, you took, uh, you know, let's say, uh, Alaska goes from plus eight to plus two, right? Like, oh well, that that's winnable, but that's still also a Republican, right? They generically, it's just in their DNA, wanna see Republicans more than Democrats in in charge of the Senate. And so, you know, again, if you just looked at the generic and said, how many of these do Democrats win?

You say, well, they they want Democrats in Michigan, Ohio, Maine, maybe they're evenly. I can't remember where they're evenly divided in one of those states, but they're narrowly, uh, Republicans are narrowly ahead in the other deep red states. Now again, the generic doesn't really mean anything. If what voters are seeing is, well, I'd really like a Republican Senate, but I just do not like Ken Paxton right. And that's,

and that's, that's a unique and that's where the one, I think. where disconnect is real, Yeah,

and that's where the disconnect is real in Maine and Michigan, too. Like, I really want a Democratic Senate, but I don't know that. I, I don't know that I could go for El-Sayed, I don't. Mm, right? Um, so that's why we love campaigns.

yeah. The the polling error thing is interesting because everyone's worried about polling error. There can be, as you point out, there could be zero polling error. And Republicans could s win three of those four seats we're talking about and keep the Senate. Or, and there's also possible, like I, I almost hesitate to say this, but it's v- it is n- it is also possible the polling error operates in the wrong direction.

absolutely. And these all break, including like Kansas, you put Nebraska right, like we have. We always know there's a surprise, usually it's in the house, especially in this day and age that we don't get surprised in Senate races, but governor's

I know six we did, I race. think, I was say, I mean, maybe you weren't surprised, but the fact Were you surprised when

by which one? web, I think, I think we were all surprised, cause we, uh, which is so funny to think about, like you guys were wor- you thought that you couldn't flip Virginia, I was like, Virginia was very different in 2006.

yes, yeah, I mean, it's so hard. It's like this is you and I have been in the game for a long time now. But like at the time, you had a guy who was not a very good candidate, like on the stump, but obviously Jim Webb, a very, very powerful candidate on paper, beating a guy who was the leading contender to be the R next Republican nominee at the time in George Allen, a that's right, former NFL player, you that's know, just like, and right.

And because that was the one Doug, for governor, that put him over the top. Yeah, and yeah, yeah, very, very popular, but I think, but I think there is the polls. C- like people forget this, cause it's funny. Democrats only care about the poll errors happening when they go against us. And the polls were quite wrong in 2025. They d underestimated Democrats or overestimated Republican turnout

they over. in very limited, Yeah, yeah, especially and in New Jersey. yeah, especially Yeah,

in New Jersey. And that could happen again because of the statistical tools being used to jam these Trump voters into the polls to have accurate representation. Cause you're trying to, you know, maybe poll, trying to model these off the 2024 results when that coalition maybe has collapsed. So we don't, we don't actually know we don't what's happening in the polls.

really know, and we are right. I mean, polls are it, it's an art and a science, right? You're making assumptions about an electorate that may not it. It will come close to that, but it. You just move a couple of these demographic groups a few points either way, and there's, you know, 5,000 votes and 10,000 votes, and there's the election.

yeah, I think it was, I can't remember who, maybe it was the New York Times, who had the the tool that you could use in 2024, where you could move things by, you know, move the Latino vote by a couple of points, both in terms of turnout and vote choice and get entirely different results. Um, let's talk about Trump for a second here, because obviously the subject of all of this is Trump's very unpopular.

He's the one who people believe raised their costs, he started the war everyone hates. In a typical midterm with an unpopular incumbent, whether it be Joe Biden in 2022, the George Brock Ob- George W. Bush in 22,006, Obama in 2010, the incumbent president kinda hangs out in the White House and doesn't really tries to sit, tries to back out. Trump's doing the opposite, he's campaigning, he's doing rallies every day, he's headed to Georgia.

Right now, as we're recording this, he's gonna be in Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, a bunch of other places. Before the end of the election. I'm trying to imagine what the strategic upside of that is for these Republicans. Do you have thoughts on that?

um, I don't see much upside. Um, at a time where, you know, when he is on the when he's in people's consciousness, it only reminds people of him, right? If you are a Republican in one of these red states, what is gonna get your voters to the polls is not, oh, that's right, I need to do this for the president. It is, oh, that's right. If I vote for, if I don't show up, Democrats are gonna be in charge and then bad things are gonna happen again.

Um, so the um, I I, I quote the the Echelon poll that, uh, they did for Puck recently a lot. Cause I I think this tells also the story of where the Republican voter is today. You know, back in January of 2025, I think it was something like 60% of Republicans identified as a Trump Republican, and now it's like 34% identify as Trump Republican. So when Trump says, pretend I'm on the ballot, vote like a, you know, this is about the MAGA movement.

Well, 34% of Republicans are like, Okay, great, that speaks to me, but the other whatever percent are saying, well, no, I, that's that that doesn't resonate with me, right? That's not what's gonna motivate me to get to the polls. And, you know, not to be an a knock on your old boss. But I remember in 2014, you know, here was, uh, Obama went I. He did go on the trail in many places to say, like, this is you're doing this for me, right?

Like, help, when you vote for these guys, you're helping my agenda. Let's do this. It's just a it's a hard. It is hard to get people who are already feeling pretty disconnected from politics to make a connection with some House or Senate candidate. That a president who you're kind of right now disappointed in, or at the very least feeling like, eh, I'm not. I don't feel great about think the way things are going in the country, that that's gonna be somehow motivating, uh, for them.

So look, I think the reality and we've seen this for the last two years, but especially in this last year, the the the reigning theory of the case in the Trump world is let Trump be Trump, right? E- There is no, there is no telling him like, this isn't really, uh, the strategy. We gotta kinda here, let's go do this, but we should probably not say that. Please don't say this, but do say this. Uh, so that's it.

P- part number one, part number two. I think he loves pe- proving people wrong. You guys keep saying we're gonna lose, you guys keep saying that. Um, I'm a drag on the party, that this is so unpopular that they're the MAGA isn't, you know, has lost its way. I'm gonna prove all of you wrong because I always do prove you wrong. You laughed at me in 2016, you laughed at me in 2022, laughed at me in 2024, and I come back every single time.

That is kind of what it feels like, right? Like, I, I'm gonna do this, um, for that reason. And so whether it's strategic, it's cl- clearly not yeah, I like, I things to help. Like,

could, I could. Retcon a strategic argument for why he could be helpful in Alaska and Iowa and Kansas, in particular. These are states he won by double digits. We know the undecided voters there are like 91% Trump voters or whatever. Um, I I think someone whose approved strong approval rating among Republicans, which is is twenty points lower now than it was in twenty four or even in 2018, is probably not the draw he used to be.

But you could do that. What I can't, what you can't tell me, is that him going to Michigan is helpful. A state where he's twenty points underwater, that's fair, that's um, and where fair. the best thing for Mike Rogers, who would possibly be, is to make this campaign all about Abdul.

All about, yeah, uh, make And it all about Abdul. Yeah,

yeah, and then I. But if Trump shows up, that makes it very hard. And Trump, these guys are in such a prison because M. Mike Rogers can't not go

that's right.

right, so he's gotta go.

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Let's I wanna pivot to the House here because we talk about the Senate. Well, I'm gonna get back to the Senate, maybe a little bit later, but we talk about the Senate on this podcast all the time. Like everyone else, we're obsessed with these Senate with the Senate. We're talking about the candidates. We don't talk enough about the in the specifics of the how the battle to win the House. Today on Friday morning, Cook Political Report moved eleven more races in the Democratic direction.

Um, I was struck by two of these in particular. Um, the first is Florida twenty five, which is the district that represented by Democrat Jared Moskowitz, that Republicans redrew to try to make it a pickup. And the second district in Montana, where Sam Forstagg, the smoke jumper, is running. Uh, what's what's going on here?

yeah. I mean, they're two very different states, right? And yeah, yes, d. I eh, eh, would say Jared two very different Moskowitz and Sam Forstagg electorates,

are very different candidates. Yes, people don't understand Forstagg's One jumps a former smoke out of airplanes, jumper. Yes, yes,

yeah, one's a smoke jumper for Jared Moskowitz. I don't think he, maybe, maybe he would do it, I don't

I don't know.

know. I haven't asked him, He might do, he but

might do it if there was a TV camera there. So yes, yes,

so so I think there are so many. I love the House because there's so many different storylines, right? And so one storyline on election night is gonna be, how did this whole redistricting thing work out? And Florida and Texas obviously will take center stage, and as you know, the Texas and Florida maps were redrawn. Basically, with the theory that the Republicans would do as well with Latinos as they did as Trump did, and as Republicans did in 2024, which is clearly not working out.

And I, if you look, for example, at those Texas seats, I think three of them Trump won by double digits, but Biden had carried those right. So if we just just by going back to not even the greatest that Democrats have ever done, but just go back to the 2020 number. Those seats are now no long, they're no longer look safe. The Florida twenty five is a is another good example of that. That was a district that Biden won, even though I think it's a Trump eight or nine, something like that district.

Moskowitz is, uh, obviously, is a very aggressive candidate, has raised a ton of money. Um, and you know, the same thing with, um, y, you have, like the we we have an in lean right now, but Maria Salazar down in South Florida, that was a district Trump barely won in 2020. Um,

won it by about fifteen, I think in 2024 in the new version. Yes,

yeah, um, and the twenty second, which we have as a toss up, another one that that this is that district that goes all the way across South Florida, like from the east to the west, uh, coast. And that's another one that Trump carried by double digits, but o Obama won. So, uh, those are a again. It's not a dummy, Mander, because a dummy Mander is, oh, you made some y, you made a Republican less safe by trying to draw out a Democrat.

In this case, it's just that they're not gonna make the gains that they thought they would. Montana is as much about, you know, this is, there's this other c- group of states, Montana, we have oha- Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa. Places that had been drifting to the right in 2024, and even to a certain extent in in 2020. But if you go back not that long ago, it to the Obama era, or if you go back even further to the Clinton era, these were the kind of districts that Democrats were winning.

Now, Montana's changed a lot since then, obviously, and this is the more democratic part of the state anyway. But I think what you're, um, what you're seeing in somebody like Forstegg is he's a really strong, you know, has a great appeal because of his story as being a smoke jumper and like this blue collar guy. Um, and that the, uh, that these are the kinds of of voters in these sort of ancestrally Democratic areas that for them, voting for a Democrat, they've, they've moved off from them culturally, but not necessarily economically.

I would say North Carolina eleven fits into that category too. That's the old Heath Shuler district, if, uh, remember that Western North Carolina, where there's a Heath Shuler like Democrat running there. Um,

is that J- is that the Jamie and Agers seat, right?

that's a Jamie Agars seat. So you've got, uh, and then the Iowa districts that, let's face it, they, they do swing a lot in swing years. Uh, um, but if Democrats sweep all of those Iowa districts, which at one time a Democrat did hold all of all three of those districts. The ones that they that Democrats never win are is the one furthest west, that's the most rural. But, um, you know, that's kind of going back to where Democrats had been with a lot of these, um, uh, sort of working class white voters.

Also, Macomb County, there's a very competitive race there as well. So if the if it's a good night for Democrats, they win in all the places where, because of the Hispanic shift and because of independents cratering. They pick up the Florida's, or they hold the Florida's and the Texas and the swing, the swing seats in Arizona and Pennsylvania and New Jersey. If it's a good like a gr- a great night, that's when you start knocking off the seats in the more traditionally blue collar working class areas that had, um, that had sh- that had shifted.

Uh, Scranton is another one where there's a great race there. Um, uh, okay, that's that's Paige Paige, Cagney, cut Yeah,

Cagney, who's a top notch Democratic candidate.

yeah. So that would be a a really, really good night. And then a, you know, an absolute whooping of a night for, uh, for Democrats would be that they're now moving into territory that again. These were seats that flipped in 2006, but we don't think of as competitive now. They've moved so far to the right since then. But in Kentucky, the Lexington, Kentucky district, um, which, uh, was redrawn to be even more Republican.

And then, uh, Minnesota one, the home of then Congressman Waltz, who won in 2006. He was, that was an upset race. Um,

yeah, hu- huge upset, huge upset.

it was a huge upset, so that's that's when you start getting into I I in into, like, tsunami territory.

I wanna flag the Kentucky one just for our audience, because Kentucky P- Kentucky's polls close first. And so if you're looking for a canary in the coal mine in either direction, how things come in in that Kentucky six race, where Democrats have a very good candidate in Zach Dembo, we'll begin to tell you a little bit, I think, about what kind of night it's gonna look like.

I think that's right, I think right. And so right now, for example, we have that in lean, uh, Republican. And if if the Republican does end up winning here, what that would suggest is okay. The battlefield now is much narrower, right? There could be some surprises over here on the on the further edges in the deeper red states. But that, for the most part, the the battle is going to be taking place in, you know, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, uh, Ohio, Texas.

And thankfully, a lot of those races will come in pretty early, too. Hopefully Texas comes in, uh, they, they count pretty quickly, Florida counts pretty quickly. very fast, yeah, Um, we like

Ohio counts quickly. Virgin- Yeah, Ohio's good, Virginia yep,

is another good place to watch on election night. Um, the district that almost always flips in a wave is the second district, um, which right now is Elaine Luria, running to get her seat back from Jen Kiggins, the congresswoman there. If Democrats flip the first district, that is now getting into, like, oh wow, this is, this is a very, very good night for Democrats. If they, if Tom Perriello comes back, another name blast from the past, the 2008 past, but not 2006.

But um, if he wins that area, it's a now more rural district, but around Charlottesville, well, now that's, uh, now Katie bar the door kind of election

It's gonna be interesting because it may not be uniform across the country 100%. It's because of,

usually not.

and there's a the couple of factors here. And you wrote a a excellent column about this, uh, just the other day, about Thanks, how, what about how different fractured the Trump coalition could work. But like you could, we could lose Kentucky and lose some of these more white districts that are Trump's, you know, Trump ten, Trump's twelve, Trump's fifteen. But when Trump fifteen, twenty, twenty districts that are mostly Latino, right? And 100%, you can see, and then you look at a race like Alabama two, which is the redrawn district that currently has Democrat Shammari Figures in it.

Trump campaigned there recently. Um, and that. But because of what could be a sky high turnout in BL- in among Black voters after the Collette decision. So you could have some of these D districts in the South with large Black votes, districts in the S in the Sunbelt with large Latino votes that can shift, and then maybe more suburban districts. You know, it's all gonna be very interesting, and then there's can be very this, lumpy, exactly.

I yes,

think people hear wave and they assume that it goes it means that across, yeah, everything goes, and it's like, it's more, it's more like a tornado. You know how a tornado can come through a neighborhood and like, skip over an entire block, But then it takes out an ent- entire neighborhood over here. And so, look, um, you know, I Iowa, e- every one of those seats is Competitive. And So that's what's nice about that state is that it can tell us it's literally you can go, like, is this a category 1, 2 or 3 storm based on, you know, the 1st going, the 3rd going, and then the I think a category 3 storm would be that the 2nd goes

as well. And So they sweep the whole state, which is, I think, what happened in 2006. So, like, all Of Iowa went in 2006. But some of the districts we thought were gonna be definitely flipping, like Suburban Philadelphia And suburban New York did not. So you can't look at this list and go, Oh my gosh, if Democrats don't win this seat, then that means they're gonna lose. Um, or if Republicans don't win this, uh, then it's gonna be a 50 seat gain.

It's like, you gotta just like, look at it, you as you said, look at it as, um, you know, the the the distinct regions and and appreciating that it it may be better in one place and not as good in another.

And that another th- this is like, well, I kinda looked at that in terms of, like, voter demographics, but there is this regional question in the Midwest, particularly The farm belt, about Whether Trump's policies on tariffs, diesel prices have put Republicans in a particular problem there, which is one of the reasons why, you know, worse Democrats are so competitive in Iowa and and Kansas. Like, I can understand Why Democrats are competitive in Ohio and Alaska and Texas because we have great candidates, you know, Sherrod Brown, Mary Palotta have won statewide.

They have brands independent of the Democratic Party, which is helpful in a red state. Tlaib Rico's, you know, obviously very talented. Ken Paxton is a different kind of candidate than that, um, has has, uh, he brings some baggage with him. But in like, Iowa, but Turks, you know, obviously has a has a very powerful story. But what's happening in Iowa has made that competitive. What's happening in Kansas has potentially made that competitive. So that also is another.

There's a geographic thing.

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There is this question, I think, that does worry a lot of Democrats, which is when you look at the polling, you see under you see overperformance in red areas, right, like, particularly in the Sen- Senate side, and you see underperformance relative to the political environment in blue areas. And the particular like we talked about, Maine, and that can be Susan Collins specific, right, that that Has happened in previous elections. You look at Michigan, which could be, you know, Abdul El-Sayed specific, if Although I'm not, I think it's a little more complicated than that.

But then you look at Minnesota, right, which is, you know, I think, like, 3 points in the 3, you know, around 3 or 4 points in the Nate Silver polling average right now. That's a state that should be, if you just believe the political environment, is a state that Democrats should be winning by Ten. Um, Do you have any thoughts, you know, and you see this in New York too, the generic ballot and some of these Senate polls in New York has been much narrower than you would have expected in a state that Democratic.

Kathy Hochul's obviously winning, but she's not winning by 20. Um, you know, do you have any theories about the the dis- the sort of the dissonance between or the underperformance in blue states, uh, this cycle for Democrats?

Yeah, I think that, um, there are probably a couple of things going on here. Uh, the 1st is that in this really polarized moment, Democrats just are not there. There's a state like Michigan, a state like, um, Minnesota, New York, Maine, it there's not a lot of elasticity. It's it's as polarized as it's ever gonna get, right? And so there's not much movement in a good year or bad year, you're just literally moving on the margins.

A state like Ohio or Alaska or Texas is moving as much as it is because this is where the polarization is not sticking. Um, And some of that is because a polarization of a place like Texas was built on some strength the strength of Latinos, same with, uh, Florida, and that these, uh, Republicans who voted for Trump were gonna continue to show up and continue to show allegiance to the Republican Party. And if they are staying home and they're no longer part of the electorate, then the electorate gets to be much more Democrat look less Republican than it did in 2024.

So I think that that there is just that much more movement in some of those states, and that's why from the very beginning our question has always been, but just how far can you stretch that band, right? And, uh, if you're if you're Democrats, it's like, okay, you can get to 48% of the vote. You can get to 49%. Can you really get to 50? Um, I also think, you know, there are gonna be so many hot takes after this election.

But one thing I think you will hear, uh, uh, from the left of the party if, uh, El-Sayed and Flanagan and Jackson win is, See, you guys were all worried we were gonna lose these blue states cause our candidates were too far to the left and they can win anywhere, and you guys just fed wet and panicked. I do think you're gonna hear pushback from centrists in the party. Number 1, if any of them lose, S it will be serious pushback.

But even th- if they win, to look at the margin that they carried, right, especially compared to the gubernatorial race. The other thing I'll say about Minnesota that I didn't really appreciate when I went and I was poking around in the state, looking the the same way you did about, well, this is is a lot closer. You know, one, Republicans really do have a stronger candidate there, and I Think if this were a different year and they had the money to put in, they would.

So the fact, y- you know, your follow the money dictum is a really important, important one here in Minnesota that they have not invested. They're spending more in Kansas and Nebraska And spending 0 in Minnesota. So that kind of tells you where where things are going. Um, but I will say that there the amount of money that's getting spent against Amy Klobuchar in the governor's race is significant. I think it's up to, like, $14 million or something, all of it on the Somali, um, welfare fraud scandal.

And obviously, Peggy Flanagan, the nominee for the Senate, as was lieutenant governor, so she can be attached to that scandal, but, uh, by Republicans. But Amy Klobuchar obviously was in the Senate. She's not, um, she's a Member of the Democratic Party, but not was not involved with that scandal. But even so, when I watch Klobuchar's ads, she has to, like, defend against that a lot. I think one of her 1st ads, she came out and said, We're gonna, you know, clean house and make sure we get to the bottom.

There's not gonna be any more fraud. So there's clearly there's a lot of, um, there's a lot more going on in Minnesota than just, Oh, the national environment, national environment, Trump Trump, and that that is another headwind Against Democrats that's not going on in other places.

Right. And the the subject of all this is is that in the in this sort of factional fight within the Democratic Party, is That Jackson, El-Sayed, and Flanagan were were the more progressive, more liberal candidates who won the Primary. This is a test of the of of More, you know, Bernie, you know, Bernie endorsed, you know, progressive, far-left candidates, whatever you wanna say in, you know, battleground states or important states or whatever else. I think the hard part about that argument is in Maine, I'm not sure anyone knows that Troy Jackson is very liberal.

I don't. It doesn't seem like they know a ton about him anyway.

I think he is campaigning this week with Bernie, yes, Bernie. Is And he does That, um, you

His, he he has not Know, Swerved out of that in any way, shape or form. His, you know, his tack On all those ads is s solidarity. Uh, but H- the bi- the bigger issue there is Susan Collins, like, I, That's the thing.

Uh, that's that's that's fair, that's And then Fair.

I think Peggy Flanagan. Well, how much people know about how liberal she is or not, I don't know. I imagine they probably do, cause that was a relatively contested primary, particularly On issues of Israel, with AIPAC money, et cetera. Uh, but her the bigger issue there is being the lieutenant governor to an unpopular Yeah, during the Incumbent governor.

Crisis. Yeah, yeah.

Now, my other sort of theory on some of these blue states, and this is less relevant to Maine, I think, but is we are in a change anti- incumbent environment, and these Yeah, that's Are states Fair. That have had Democratic governors, like, Minnesota's had Democratic governor forever, and Michigan's Coming at the end of two term demo- like, Democrats have been in charge there for a while, so there's less of that. But you make the most important point of all in this, which is it's pure math.

They're just if your numbers go up when people leave the Republicans, there aren't that many people to leave the Republican. There are more people to leave the Republicans if it's a Trump plus 10 state than if it's a Trump Trump plus 0.5 state or whatever it is in Michigan, Or a Trump minus 8 state like it is in Maine. Um, So, you know,

So there's just so much more. You're not gonna win by, you know, no demo- even in the best Democratic year, you're not gonna win Maine by 25 points, Yeah, that's Right? Like, there's there's Just so far you can you We we've polarized, people are locked in, and then the the swings will be still within that margin, yeah.

Um, oh, nice, you about Kansas, and then I'll let you go here. You Kansas is not really a toss up, do I have that right, by you Guys? Um, that's A state that Trump won by 16 points, hasn't elected a Democratic senator since Herbert Hoover was president, 94 years. Um, What's going on there?

Yeah, what's going on there is, I think, the confluence of factors that makes this unique, and and this is how, in order to flip a state like this, you have to have everything go Right, right? It has to be serendipity. And so the things that they have going right for them, Democrats do is, as we just discussed, the the the challenge for a state that Is a farm economy, When fertilizer, diesel, the tariffs are all taking a toll.

And then, of course, just on inflation is taking a toll on everybody, whether you're related to the farm economy or or not. So you get that. Then you have a a really strong Democratic nominee who is very talented, um, but also is very difficult to paint as a typical Democrat. And the fact that he doesn't come from politics, I think, is another asset, right? He is the he started a megachurch in Kansas City, he is still, um, a pastor there.

So this is somebody who, you know, when you look at him, you and and and know his background, you don't go, Oh, this is just kind of a typical Democrat. Or this guy just spent 25 years in the legislature. We know what he's gonna do when he goes to Washington, so you have that going for you. And then finally, you have to have a very weak Republican candidate. And Roger Marshall, D didn't, uh, you know, I I think I I came into this thinking like, Yeah, you know, o- okay, he, you know, hasn't really had a race before, and is he gonna be prepared for this?

And, you know, there were always the the talk about how he doesn't live there, and he's gonna have to talk about his residency. But I think that the the the hits just keep coming, right? And and the m the the the piece that came out in the New York Times about suing his patients, I think that one just really, um, it because, again, it combines all of those things. It's not just, Oh my God, I can't believe this guy s sued, uh, an an arrested women who had just given birth.

But, w- we're at a time where we're talking about cost of living and affordability issues, and people feeling so stretched, and this is a guy who who's doing this, right? So it it's not just that i if this were just about, like, where's his residency? Does he really live here? I don't know that that would be enough to get people to go over fire, but all of that together is, uh, what has what has set this moment up.

And and you're right, it would be really it's it it it is funny how Kansas, even though the states around it, those other farm states, were electing Democrats through the Obama Era, right? In in South Dakota and n- North Dakota, Nebraska, um, and, uh, so, uh, you know, I don't I don't think we should say, well, it's been 100 years, so I guess that means they will never elect, uh, a d a Democrat. But, uh, it it is, you know, but the the fact that Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, all are feeling this pinch, right?

They're they're all moving in a similar way, you know, moving away from Trump is, I think, a a lot about where we sit in the political environment. And then Marshall and, uh, the Democrat, o- of, uh, Adam Hamilton, sort of seals the ma- makes this he he offers a permission structure that I think another Democrat might not.

Amy Walter, it is always so much fun to talk to you. Good This was really Luck over these

Fun, thank you. Next two weeks. Uh, You too.

We'll be you. Hydrate. Everything you write and post is essential reading for anyone who's a true political junkie. We'll be looking for your analysis on election night and beyond. It's always great to have you on Potus, America. Talk to you again soon.

See you soon.

Thanks, Amy Walter. Love it, Tommy and John. We'll be back in your feed on Tuesday. Have a great weekend, everyone. Pod Save America is a crooked media production. Our show is produced by Austin Fisher, Saul Rubin, McKenna Roberts, and Michael Goldsmith, with Reed Churlin, Elijah Cohn, and Adrian Hill. Our team includes Matt DeGroot, Ben Hefco, Jordan Cantor, Charlotte Landis, Kenny Moffett, Adam Lipper, Joseph Dutra, Desmond Taylor, Dan Farah, David Tols, Mia Kelman, Ryan Young, and Naomi Single.

Our staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.