# Last Call for Takes! - **Show:** Pod Save America - **Published:** 3 Nov 2026 - **Source:** https://audioboom.com/posts/8972501 - **Transcript:** https://podcasts.opennash.com/shows/pod-save-america/last-call-for-takes-f81c4d/ - **Provider:** OpenNash Podcasts (machine-generated) ## In brief On the eve of the 2026 midterms, the hosts argue that the final Times/Siena polls show Democrats with a real shot at the Senate and an even better shot at the House. They say Trump's unpopularity, the Iran war, tariffs and his own political mistakes put red states in play. They also warn that the polls may be too good to be true. The main tension is optimism against fear of a polling miss. The hosts go state by state, from Michigan and Kansas to Texas, Ohio and Maine, then ask what a good or bad night would teach Democrats. Their view is that the Senate matters most. Control of it decides Supreme Court and judicial appointments for decades. ## Key insights 1. **The final polls look almost too good** The Times/Siena polls had Democrats ahead in Michigan, Texas, Maine, Ohio, Kansas, Alaska and Iowa, some in states Trump won by double digits. The hosts say they feel dread about good polls, since a polling error toward Republicans would erase the leads. 2. **Haley Stevens' endorsement may backfire on Republicans** Stevens endorsed Mike Rogers, then gave a halting CNN interview. The hosts argue this unified Democrats around Abdul El-Sayed and raised money for him. They note that the poll shows him winning 96% of Harris voters. 3. **Trump's own choices helped put the Senate in play** The hosts cite Ken Paxton beating John Cornyn in Texas, Lindsey Graham seeking a full term, Mike Collins pushing out Brian Kemp's preferred Georgia candidate, and JD Vance's Senate seat opening. Each created a weaker or more costly Republican position. 4. **The Senate is the real prize** Jon Favreau argues that winning the Senate would block one or two Supreme Court appointments and dozens of judges. He says losing it could mean justices in their thirties serving for decades, so he sees the Senate as a binary outcome. 5. **Winning red-state Senate seats would be historic** Citing the Cook Political Report, Favreau says five Republican-held seats Trump carried by more than ten points are toss-ups. No election in at least sixteen years has cost the president's party more than one such seat. A loss would therefore be explainable, and a win unusual. ## Questions this episode answers ### What did the final Times/Siena polls say about the Senate races? They showed Democrats narrowly ahead in several states, including Michigan by 11, Texas by 7, Maine by 6, Ohio by 5, Kansas by 5, Alaska by 2 and Iowa by 1. The hosts say these leads look unusually strong, so they worry the polls could be off. ### Why does Haley Stevens' endorsement of Mike Rogers matter? Stevens is a Michigan Democrat who endorsed the Republican Senate candidate against her own party's nominee, Abdul El-Sayed, a day after reportedly telling a colleague she wouldn't. The hosts think it will have little effect on the vote and may even rally Democrats. ### Why do the hosts say winning the Senate matters more than the House? Favreau says the House would end Trump's ability to pass new legislation. The Senate also confirms judges and Supreme Court justices, which he says could shape the courts for decades. ### What is the Iran situation the hosts discuss? They say Trump is weighing renewed strikes on Iran, with Netanyahu pressing him to act. They also say Tucker Carlson reported Trump might be days from a nuclear strike on Iran's 'Pickaxe Mountain' site. Tommy Vietor doubts the nuclear part and says keeping the Strait of Hormuz open costs billions each month. ### What would a bad night for Democrats tell us? The hosts say it would suggest voters are not driven by pocketbook issues like inflation, tariffs and gas prices. They also point to polarization and the influence of big money. They add that it might mean midterm voters resemble presidential-year voters more than pollsters assumed. ## Facts - **Jon Favreau** [0:03:04]: "No president since Harry Truman has been this unpopular heading into election day." - **Jon Favreau** [0:09:19]: "maybe Kemp would have run for Senate. And that probably would have given Ossoff the toughest race." - **Jon Favreau** [0:09:44]: "lots of reporting the last few days that Netanyahu is pressuring Trump to start striking Iran again as soon as this week." - **Jon Favreau** [0:10:09]: "reporting from Tucker Carlson, who cited anonymous sources close to Trump saying that the president may be within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran's pickaxe mountain" - **Tommy Vietor** [0:11:07]: "It's a conventional weapon, but it weighs like 21,000 pounds." - **Tommy Vietor** [0:11:31]: "It requires 50,000 US. troops, twenty navy ships, two carrier strike groups, and additional, uh, two to $3 billion a month above normal military spending" - **Jon Favreau** [0:17:44]: "Haley Stevens' uh, shocking decision to endorse Mike Rogers on Sunday morning, which included going to church with him and holding a press conference afterwards." - **Jon Favreau** [0:33:38]: "Abdul is winning 96% of Kamala Harris voters, and only 2% of Kamala Harris voters are voting for Mike Rogers." - **Jon Favreau** [0:40:40]: "Roger Marshall's history of sending debt collectors after his patients back when he was an OBGYN, uh, and in some cases, leading to them, uh, going to jail." - **Jon Favreau** [0:42:12]: "it is in the Kansas Bill of Rights that you can't go to jail for having debt." - **Jon Favreau** [0:48:43]: "a federal judge dismissed the Department of Justice's Trump ordered lawsuit trying to block the election certification if the incumbent Sullivan lost." - **Tommy Vietor** [0:52:15]: "in 2014, there were two Dan Sullivans on the ballot at the same time, just by happenstance." - **Tommy Vietor** [0:52:15]: "the main Republican Super PAC spent like 500 grand to get a Green Party candidate who lives in Arizona to run." - **Jon Favreau** [0:54:58]: "His campaign appeared to cancel the final event of his come and take it tour, which was set to take place at the Alamo." - **Jon Favreau** [0:57:07]: "His favorable rating in this poll is like plus ten, and Paxton is, uh, negative twenty one." - **Tommy Vietor** [0:56:25]: "he stole from his friends, his staff reported him to the FBI, he was impeached by Republicans" - **Jon Favreau** [1:04:21]: "the state has apparently set a a midterms early voting record." - **Jon Favreau** [1:09:56]: "The independents in the poll, uh, the times poll where she was leading by three, were forty seven, forty seven. It is now fifty two, forty one in favor of Troy Jackson in this poll." - **Jon Favreau** [1:19:11]: "the 200 million plus that they spent in just Texas alone doesn't do it" - **Jon Favreau** [1:22:11]: "Cook has five Republican-held Senate seats in the toss-up column that Trump carried by more than ten points, which is wild." - **Jon Favreau** [1:22:11]: "No election in at least the last sixteen years has seen the party in the White House lose more than one Senate seat that the president had carried by double digits." ## Transcript **[0:00:00] Jon Favreau:** Today's presenting sponsor is Simply Safe Home Security. The clocks fell back, and suddenly it's pitch dark by five thirty PM. But no matter how early the sun sets, Simply Safe's live, US-based agents are on guard twenty four seven, ready to step in, whether it's six PM or two AM. Traditional security systems only alert you during a break in. Simply Safe stops threats before they happen. Smart, AI-powered cameras watch for potential threats and alert a live, US-based agent ready to intervene. **[0:00:24] Jon Favreau:** The agent intervenes in under thirty seconds, speaking through the camera to stop an intruder in their tracks, then calls for urgent nine one one dispatch when it's needed most. Our CEO, uh, got a SimplySafe, and she installed it in a few hours, and she said the app is really easy to use. She can arm or disarm the system from her phone, and the temperature and water sensors, uh, allow her to monitor areas of the house as the weather changes. **[0:00:48] Jon Favreau:** So, she's a big fan of her new SimpliSafe. We've partnered with SimpliSafe to offer our listeners the biggest savings of the year. 70% off your new system with professional monitoring when you visit SimpliSafe dot com slash crooked. That's SimpliSafe dot com slash crooked. And when you order, type in Pod Save America at checkout. It lets them know we sent you, and it really helps the show. Simply Safe ahead of crime in real time. Welcome to Pod Save America. **[0:01:33] Jon Favreau:** I'm Jon Favreau. **[0:01:34] Jon Lovett:** I'm Jon Lovett. Tommy Vietor. **[0:01:36] Jon Favreau:** On today's show, the midterms are finally here, and the final round of Time Ciana polls show what the averages have been saying all fall. Democrats have a great chance of retaking the Senate and an even better chance of taking the House. We'll go through the final state of play state by state, and the message that Donald Trump is using to try to blunt that momentum. What could it be? Uh, before we get to all that, quick reminder to join Alex Wagner tonight for a live stream of election results and analysis. **[0:02:04] Jon Favreau:** The stream starts at nine PM. Eastern, six PM. Pacific on the Pod Save America YouTube channel. She'll have lots of great guests from the network and beyond, including us, right after we get back from doing Jimmy Kimmel Live tonight. So check that out too, if you'd like. Uh, and then we'll be recording a bonus episode tonight when we have a handle on all the results. Dan will be here too, so look for that in your feed tomorrow. **[0:02:27] Jon Favreau:** Also, if you haven't yet grabbed your tickets for Crooked Con this Saturday, today and tomorrow only, we're having a flash sale. **[0:02:33] Jon Lovett:** Oh, are we? **[0:02:34] Jon Favreau:** It's a flash sale. $30 off your ticket with code CC Midterms twenty six. **[0:02:40] Tommy Vietor:** C C Midterms twenty six. **[0:02:42] Jon Favreau:** That's C C Midterms twenty six. Crooked Con Midterms twenty You got it. You figured Six. See, it out. Uh, it's in the episode description as well. Uh, this flash sale ends Thursday, and it's the last chance for discounted tickets. So **[0:02:53] Tommy Vietor:** Wait, what's a flash sale? Is that just a limited time? **[0:02:56] Jon Lovett:** Yeah, it's just like, Boom, we're s. It's on sale. **[0:02:58] Jon Favreau:** yeah, it's happening. Good. Flash. Uh, **[0:03:01] Jon Lovett:** And Haley Stevens is now coming, so that's exciting. **[0:03:03] Tommy Vietor:** Yeah, headliner. **[0:03:04] Jon Favreau:** yeah. Yeah, she's gonna be there. She's gonna moderate a panel. CrookedCon dot com to get yours and see if Lovett's joking or not. See you this weekend in DC. All right, the day has arrived. Our last show before polls close and the final midterm election of the Trump era in American politics. No president since Harry Truman has been this unpopular heading into election day. He got us into a war that spiked gas prices to record highs, imposed crushing tariffs on everyone, deployed paramilitary squads to terrorize communities, made billions of dollars for himself and his friends, put states into play that Democrats haven't won in decades. **[0:03:43] Jon Favreau:** And on Monday, he delivered one final pitch at the Lincoln Memorial to Americans who still haven't made up their minds about whether to keep Republicans in control of Washington for two more years. **[0:03:55] Donald Trump:** Tremendous algae problems. And you have that picture with the algae, it's not an easy thing. The algae is brutal. The green, that's not grass, that's algae that it took over the entire pool. The pipes, the pipes now are totally renovated, they have brand new pipes put in. It's also something very important in terms of the algae. It creates the bubbles and creates what's necessary that the algae doesn't form. When we fixed the granite, we recaulked it. **[0:04:21] Donald Trump:** All of this has been recaulked. The granite's stone is so strong, it literally has, uh, thousands of years of life. The grass in front of the White House was a very inferior grass for many, many years, and it's a big deal regressing. The sitting president doesn't win the midterms, but we gave this a very strong shot. **[0:04:42] Tommy Vietor:** When? **[0:04:43] Jon Favreau:** I mean, if we fucking if we don't win this one, fucking pack it in, guys. Pack Talking about it in. Sod. **[0:04:52] Tommy Vietor:** It was like a resistance lib joke came to life. Like, my jaw dropped watching this. We were They brought the shark stunned. out, like, couldn't believe this was actually happening. **[0:04:58] Jon Favreau:** Takes a lot to surprise us ten years into this bullshit. But we were watching it live on Fox, our favorite channel, and w- with the Chyron said, like, President speaks one day before critical midterms. **[0:05:10] Tommy Vietor:** Guys, he literally said in his remarks, We have a lot of great things planned for the nation, and we could get into that, but we don't have **[0:05:15] Jon Favreau:** Don't have enough time. **[0:05:16] Tommy Vietor:** enough time. He well, cause I Don't have enough time, and Yeah, so now is the time. cause there's and **[0:05:19] Jon Favreau:** a lot of grass. Talk about a lot of algae. **[0:05:21] Jon Lovett:** after, like, what, like, thirty or forty minutes on, uh, Reno, he then did a kind of, Yeah, they're uh, sad, **[0:05:28] Jon Favreau:** gonna, they're gonna trans your children. sad, kinda low energy Communist jihadist scum, kind of stuff. **[0:05:34] Tommy Vietor:** A and he did it with a mic in front of his face like this, and a hat pulled down really low, so you couldn't even see him. **[0:05:39] Jon Favreau:** His heart wasn't in it, but he also doesn't seem down, oddly enough, for thinking that he may lose the midterms, as he said there, and looking at all the polls. He kinda just seems like, Look, I'm here, this is what I care about. I'm trying to keep my moods lifted. **[0:05:53] Jon Lovett:** yeah, it's like, he's like, he's I. He's heard that Americans are angry about all these construction projects, and he thinks it's because of anger at them not going well enough, as opposed to say, the incorrect focus. **[0:06:06] Tommy Vietor:** Yeah, they don't know enough about the successes. **[0:06:07] Jon Lovett:** Yeah, once they hear about what the bubbler's been up You think that's to, and the challenging sod conditions we were working under, it's very hard to regress. Did did Very challenging. **[0:06:16] Jon Favreau:** I think he just doesn't give a shit. **[0:06:18] Tommy Vietor:** I think it doesn't give a shit either. It's also like, it really is a story about how his staff now has no control over him. Um, I talked to Rom for like three minutes today, like at one of those two minute Rom phone calls, and he was like, If you came into my office and pitched me on a day before the midterms event about the renovations at the reflecting pool, I would have ripped your arm off and thrown you out of the office. **[0:06:39] Tommy Vietor:** It's insane. **[0:06:39] Jon Favreau:** I think he wouldn't have even done that at first cause he would have laughed at you and thought it was like a practical joke that you like a prank that you guys And then throw were doing. **[0:06:44] Tommy Vietor:** me in the fire. Did he do a follow-up thing on the arch afterwards? **[0:06:47] Jon Favreau:** Well, everyone cut away, so we cut away cause we were like, I guess that's it. And then I and then cause then Doug Bergham got up and spoke, and then I guess he came back to talk about the arch. **[0:06:55] Tommy Vietor:** he came back after Doug. **[0:06:56] Jon Lovett:** I I would they they cut away when I was watching after, cause I was I was literally **[0:06:59] Jon Favreau:** He had to get to all of his teller rallies, uh, Donald Trump, who's doing a lot of teller rallies today. **[0:07:03] Jon Lovett:** I was I was at the dentist and my deal, and I was like, Oh, I I gotta prepare for the pod and so I can so I don't have to do the odd conversation while I'm I'm in the dentist dude. chair, so I, so I was watching from my dentist chair. **[0:07:12] Tommy Vietor:** So I've evolved on this. I'm now fully headphones in, like, noise cancellation, listening to something cause, first of all, I I get huge anxiety at the dentist, and it's also it's you can't talk to them anyway. They try to talk Yeah, I to you. **[0:07:24] Jon Lovett:** know, I know. **[0:07:25] Jon Favreau:** anyway, we're, like, Trump just talking about the dentist here on, uh, election day. In addition to, um, all of Trump's governing fuck ups, uh, did you guys see that Semaphore put together a great roundup of Trump's political fuck ups that that almost single-handedly put the Senate in play? Um, and, uh, and which do you think were the most consequential? **[0:07:43] Tommy Vietor:** Great list. **[0:07:43] Jon Lovett:** Yeah, I so I think, uh, unforced error list number one, I would say, is going to war with Iran. That's pro. Let's just like, let's just yeah, well, we skip all that. **[0:07:52] Jon Favreau:** have all the governing ones. **[0:07:53] Jon Lovett:** Let's right. But, uh, it's tough category. I think Paxton over Cornyn is probably the cleanest because **[0:08:00] Tommy Vietor:** I think that's right. **[0:08:01] Jon Lovett:** it just absolutely put I mean, who knows what the actual race would be now if it were Cornyn versus Tellerico, but totally changed the dynamic. And they were saying even before Paxton was the nominee, their their best case scenario was nominating Paxton. A win would require at least another $100 million, so that was the hand the handicap before they even, uh, went through with it. So, I'd say that. Maybe second being for inexplicably deciding that, uh, uh, Darlene Graham shouldn't just be the interim senator senator, but should also go for the full term. **[0:08:27] Tommy Vietor:** That certainly put South Carolina on the map. It's crazy. I I I really I think those are better choices and more accurate choices. I really like pushing this idea that choosing JD Vance I mean, was a historic mistake. **[0:08:38] Jon Favreau:** Yeah, you, you're same way, **[0:08:39] Tommy Vietor:** It would have put Ohio like, Yep, on the ballot in twenty six, and if he hadn't done that, if I hadn't chosen JD, you could imagine Trump getting mad about this and ranting about how if I hadn't chosen JD, things would be different. **[0:08:50] Jon Favreau:** yeah, cause JD would still be, you know, senator from A really annoying Ohio. There senator. wouldn't be a there wouldn't be a race there. I also, uh, I hadn't thought about Tillis either, um, pushing Tillis. Uh, now, look, I think Roy And Kemp bowing I out. think Roy Cooper Jordan. versus Tillis, um, I still would give that in this environment to Cooper, um, but certainly didn't help. **[0:09:11] Tommy Vietor:** But we're spending in that scenario, right? Yes, that We're spending is right, tens of millions **[0:09:14] Jon Favreau:** that's right. **[0:09:14] Tommy Vietor:** of dollars. Like, there's all this effort going into North Carolina, and the party kind of walked away from it months ago. **[0:09:19] Jon Favreau:** And Kemp is kind of a double there, right? Because if if Trump wasn't president, or Trump didn't hate Kemp, maybe Kemp would have run for Senate. And that probably would have given Ossoff the toughest race. But then Kemp had a guy, this guy Dooley, that he wanted to run against Ossoff. Trump took that guy out with, uh, with Mike Collins, the bigot. And so, um, yeah, there goes Georgia. So that's what, so that's what. So Trump really helped put the Senate in play. **[0:09:44] Jon Favreau:** Um, so we'll see see how that worked out for him. Uh, not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but I think it's worth talking about what's next for Trump after Tuesday. Um, lots of reporting the last few days that Netanyahu is pressuring Trump to start striking Iran again as soon as this week. Um, Trump kind of, sort of maybe threw some cold water on that to reporters today, but he kind of he was like, No, not right afterwards. **[0:10:09] Jon Favreau:** I'm not gonna s, but maybe, who knows? Like his usual shit. Um, there was also some wild, by wild, I mean, terrifying reporting from Tucker Carlson, who cited anonymous sources close to Trump saying that the president may be within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran's pickaxe mountain, um, where quote, Israeli intelligence claims the Iranian government has restarted its nuclear enrichment program. Tell me, what'd you think of Tucker's very long post? **[0:10:36] Tommy Vietor:** it was a very long post. It's always interesting when people write like the op-ed tweet. It's like, huh, And he you wanna say doesn't do that something on your show? **[0:10:41] Jon Favreau:** often, though. He doesn't tweet out, he doesn't tweet a lot anyway. **[0:10:43] Tommy Vietor:** Yeah, so the, uh, the Iranians just floated a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz that included some things like lifting sanctions and billions in frozen asset relief. That make it hard for me to imagine that Trump would take a deal. So I think renewed conflict is more likely than not. Um, pickaxe Mountain is more likely than not to be a target because it is it is the place you hear the neocons kind of frothing at the mouth about because of potentially i including a new nuclear site. **[0:11:07] Tommy Vietor:** Um, I personally think the nuclear weapons part is made up. It doesn't make sense, really, militarily or strategically. I think this could be some Gulf source, like, you know, someone in Qatar or UAE or whatever talking to Tucker and trying to spin him up. Um, there were other reports that Trump might want to drop something called the MOAB, the mother of all bombs, on pickaxe. That's a really big bomb. It's a conventional weapon, but it weighs like 21,000 pounds. **[0:11:31] Tommy Vietor:** Um, it that option makes sense because it would have no strategic impact, but it would be a thing Trump would like to talk about. It's kind of the perfect world for him. Um, but, you know, the whole thing was weird. I mean, the the the war's not over. Iran attacked thirty five ships in October alone. The Journal had a great piece over the weekend about the escort mission. It requires 50,000 US. troops, twenty navy ships, two carrier strike groups, and additional, uh, two to $3 billion a month above normal military spending **[0:11:58] Jon Favreau:** In perpetuity. **[0:11:59] Tommy Vietor:** in perpetuity to keep it open. Um, the other thing about the Tucker post that said Obama opposes a deal, which, like, I don't buy the sourcing there, but also that could be someone said to me, W- what if that's just a genius way for Tucker to try to get Trump to like the deal? If Obama That would had **[0:12:15] Jon Favreau:** be some real chess from Tucker Carlson there. Does seem like no matter what happens, uh, in the elections, all Trump has is foreign policy stuff like this **[0:12:25] Tommy Vietor:** God, of course. **[0:12:26] Jon Favreau:** and and Reno's home. Reno's, yeah. That's about I'd rather it. **[0:12:29] Tommy Vietor:** redo the Renos. I've I've heard Regime that **[0:12:30] Jon Favreau:** change abroad, renovations at home. **[0:12:32] Tommy Vietor:** I've heard that Rubio, Besson, and Ratcliffe kind of want to keep the economic pressure on and stay the course. That Vance and Whitkoff want a deal, and so does the Gulf, I'm sure Vance uh, wise. does. Oh, absolutely. Excuse me, And then, **[0:12:44] Jon Favreau:** I've got to be running for president in this. **[0:12:46] Tommy Vietor:** yeah, and then you'll never guess who really wants to run it back and do War 2.0. P-Tex, I think, **[0:12:51] Jon Favreau:** Of course. **[0:12:52] Tommy Vietor:** apparently, and I think Trump is leaning that way because I think he doesn't care about politics. I mean, look, like we said at the top, the the ballroom press events to, like, close out the midterms shows he doesn't care about politics anymore. Um, I think he just wants to show that he can dominate the Iranians, and he'll probably do it. **[0:13:07] Jon Favreau:** He wants a few like, I if if he things don't go well in the midterms, he wants a few good headlines. He doesn't care how long they last, right? He's not looking for, like, some permanent peace or negotiation. He just wants a few good headlines. So if he bombs some things, maybe people will be like, Oh, he dropped some bombs, he's strong again. That's this is this is as far as the thinking goes. **[0:13:25] Jon Lovett:** It wasn't als- it wasn't as if when, uh, Bush held that press conference after the shellacking in 2006 where, uh, he relieved Donald Rumsfeld, that suddenly everyone was like, Oh, good. Yeah, it didn't. I Didn't buy him think a lot of goodwill. **[0:13:37] Jon Favreau:** did not. **[0:13:37] Jon Lovett:** It was the right thing to do, but didn't buy him goodwill. **[0:13:47] Tommy Vietor:** Pod Save America is brought to you by article. Article makes it effortless to build a home that lasts without the boutique markup. Their curated collections of mid-century, coastal and scandi furniture are designed to mix and match perfectly, so you can create a cohesive, designer look that will stand the test of time. We have a ton of article furniture at this very office. We have really comfortable chairs. I think we have bookshelves, couches. 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This peace of mind ensures you can invest in your home without hesitation. Article is offering our listeners $50 off your first purchase of $100 or more to claim. Go to article dot com slash crooked, and the discount will automatically be applied at checkout. That's article dot com slash crooked for fifty bucks off your first purchase of $100 or more. **[0:15:03] Jon Favreau:** Pod Save America is brought to you by ZipRecruiter. The holidays are fast approaching, which means thousands of companies have seasonal positions to fill, from extra retail workers to real bearded Santas to snowplow drivers. Wow. Uh, whether you're hiring for one of those roles or any other role, the best way to find qualified people who are genuinely excited about your role is on ZipRecruiter. Right now, you can try it for free at ZipRecruiter dot com slash crooked. **[0:15:25] Jon Favreau:** ZipRecruiter has a new feature that shows you the most interested, qualified candidates first, so you meet the right people faster. ZipRecruiter's powerful matching technology finds qualified candidates quickly. Candidates can tell you in their own words why they're excited about the job you're hiring for. No wonder ZipRecruiter is the number one rated hiring site based on G2. We love ZipRecruiter. We've used it here, uh, for many years, and, uh, it's always easy to sort. You know, resumes are tough to sort through. **[0:15:49] Jon Favreau:** And when you're using **[0:15:49] Tommy Vietor:** It is. **[0:15:50] Jon Favreau:** Zip, when you use ZipRecruiter, just the best ones go right to the top of the pile. **[0:15:52] Tommy Vietor:** I bet if you're in the right state, your snowplow driver could double as a bearded Santa. **[0:15:57] Jon Favreau:** Oh, for sure. Like, Maine, New Like, that's who's in the states **[0:15:59] Tommy Vietor:** Hampshire, Boston. **[0:15:59] Jon Favreau:** that we come from. Yeah, **[0:16:00] Tommy Vietor:** Yeah, all the places that we're from. **[0:16:01] Jon Favreau:** uh, let ZipRecruiter find the right people for your roles, seasonal or otherwise. Try it for free today at ZipRecruiter dot com slash crooked. That's ZipRecruiter dot com slash crooked. Meet your match on ZipRecruiter. All right, on Sunday night, we got the final batch of Time Ciana polls. By the way, Sunday night release. I, you know, I was up. It was Rude. four in the morning. **[0:16:24] Tommy Vietor:** Yeah, it was rude. **[0:16:25] Jon Favreau:** I was I thought it was gonna happen Friday, Thursday morning, Friday morning, Saturday morning, checking the checking the phone, and then all of a sudden, Sunday, it's, like, dinner time Pacific. And I'm like, What? Now we're getting them? I had to drop everything. **[0:16:38] Tommy Vietor:** Terrible football game on. We're doing things. **[0:16:41] Jon Favreau:** Anyway, these polls gave Democrats across the country a sinking feeling in our stomachs for the sole reason that they seem too good to be true. **[0:16:50] Jon Lovett:** Yeah, we don't try. **[0:16:50] Jon Favreau:** That's where we're at right now. **[0:16:51] Jon Lovett:** We don't try. Listen. **[0:16:51] Jon Favreau:** Bad polls, we feel the bad, the pit in our stomach. Good polls, we feel the pit in our stomach. **[0:16:56] Jon Lovett:** Oh, because it's not real. Good feelings aren't real. It's not real. Only only only anxiety is And yet real. That's our pattern. That's and yet we s our pattern that we seek to recreate in our politics. **[0:17:05] Jon Favreau:** and yet we still read them anyway with great interest. All right, Abdul El-Sayed, up eleven in Michigan. Whew. Hot poll, hot poll, little hot. **[0:17:14] Tommy Vietor:** Feels tough. Talked about that one. **[0:17:15] Jon Favreau:** James Talarico, up seven in Texas, Troy Jackson, up six in Maine, Sherrod Brown up five in Ohio, Adam Hamilton up five in Kansas, Mary Peltola up two in Alaska, Josh Turek up one in Iowa. Um, we will take these state by state. We'll start with Michigan. Uh, again, Time Ciana has Abdul up eleven over Mike Rogers, fifty three forty two. That's the biggest margin of the group. Uh, Nate Silver's average has Abdul up just shy of five points. **[0:17:44] Jon Favreau:** Uh, all very encouraging signs that are, uh, just getting slightly overshadowed by Haley Stevens' uh, shocking decision to endorse Mike Rogers on Sunday morning, which included going to church with him and holding a press conference afterwards. Uh, Stevens, ha- had told fellow Democrats, literally the night before, hours before, I think, that she that she definitely would not endorse Rogers. Um, and so that was a turn of events that Stevens had just a bit of trouble explaining in an incredibly awkward interview with Anderson Cooper on Sunday night. **[0:18:17] Jon Favreau:** Um, we're gonna play a bunch of it. I'm gonna do a longer clip here because it's just it's one of the most unbelievable interviews I've seen. **[0:18:25] Anderson Cooper:** Debbie Dingell said that she talked to you at midnight last night and that you told her you were not going to endorse Mike Rogers. If that is true, what changed between then and this morning? **[0:18:37] Haley Stevens:** Well, look, this is just a weight off my shoulders. Okay? U- Abdul has been getting angrier and angrier. **[0:18:43] Anderson Cooper:** Back in August, you posted on social media a quote, Mike Rogers will be another rubber stamp for Donald Trump's dangerous agenda. We can't afford to give MAGA another Senate seat in November. How do you s w- why is it okay now? Why can you afford now to give MAGA another Senate seat in November? **[0:19:02] Haley Stevens:** well, why is it okay to have the Democratic Party and a a top nominee, i you know, ejecting, uh, y- you know, this type of or injecting rather this type of of anger and lack of kindness. It That sounds sounds like you're upset like with me too, Anderson. **[0:19:16] Anderson Cooper:** No, I'm not, I'm just you're And not really answering any let's just, of my questions, so I'm it's somewhat frustrating. Do you know, you want Democrats have the affordability to win and control the Senate? **[0:19:22] Haley Stevens:** agenda? I absolutely do. I just I'm just casting my vote this one way. Michigan, there's a lot Good of people and good, out there voting good. I. **[0:19:34] Anderson Cooper:** But with all due respect, you're casting your vote that way and you're on television right now talking about it, and you had a press conference earlier. There's reports that more than half of your staff has quit. Is that accurate? **[0:19:47] Haley Stevens:** Look, I have an incredible team in in Washington. Um, obviously Do you still have they they cast **[0:19:53] Anderson Cooper:** them? their votes, and You said in a press that's okay. But just conference today, to have We can't stand with hate. Do you believe that Abdul El-Sayed is hateful or an anti-Semite? **[0:20:06] Haley Stevens:** I'm just sick of who he stands with. He's picking a sidekicker, and the uncle. **[0:20:11] Anderson Cooper:** He wanted to be at a public event, uh, with him up until some point, I guess, yesterday, and I. It's just an interesting change, and I think a lot of people are curious to try to understand it. **[0:20:32] Haley Stevens:** Was that a question? **[0:20:34] Anderson Cooper:** Uh, no, I wanted to see if you wanted to fill in the silence, if you don't. **[0:20:36] Tommy Vietor:** Jesus Christ. dude. **[0:20:42] Anderson Cooper:** You you told Debbie Dingell you were not gonna do this, is that correct? Last night at some point. **[0:20:52] Haley Stevens:** Anderson, that that that is, you know, nice editorializing and nice bits of I'm about to information that you have speak to Debbie Dingell, about what's going so I'm, uh, on with I'm giving you the Michigan politics. courtesy. I'm giving Look, **[0:21:03] Anderson Cooper:** you the courtesy of saying what I had an opportunity actually happened. **[0:21:05] Haley Stevens:** to go to a church service and have a prayerful moment. It was Sunday. It was very beautiful. It was about friendship, which I have many incredible friends in the Democratic Party, and I care a lot about them. **[0:21:21] Anderson Cooper:** You don't wanna say whether you had a conversation with Debbie Dingell. Okay, Congresswoman Haley, I really Hail the Stevens. Thank you very much. I appreciate your time. So, **[0:21:27] Tommy Vietor:** I had not watched it on normal speed. It is so much worse than it like two x. **[0:21:31] Jon Favreau:** oh man. And so, like, I, you know, Dan and I, uh, did a a reaction to the news, um, on Sunday on YouTube. And, you know, I, I sort of got all my anger out there. Uh, and then I watched that Sunday night, and I suddenly, like, shifted to just feeling like, ugh, people have got to. Just someone who knows her, who, uh, she's still listening to, has to just, like, get her off TV and stop doing press. **[0:21:56] Jon Favreau:** And cause, like, something is just something is off there. That's it. Yeah, I felt But what do you guys I felt think? **[0:22:01] Tommy Vietor:** bad for her after the CNN interview, and then this morning, I woke up and saw that she was talking to the Free Press and Scott Jennings' radio program and was on this endless media tour. And so I think I went back to not feeling bad for her. **[0:22:12] Jon Favreau:** Yeah, to be clear, I don't I don't feel bad for her at all. I feel like, um, for her, for her own sake, but also for, like, doing the dam- all the rest of the damage she's doing. Like, I think everyone, including Haley Stevens, would be better off if Haley Stevens just went away. **[0:22:23] Tommy Vietor:** yeah, I think she's doing the most damage to herself right now. I mean, I think, like, for Abdul, like, obviously, this is not how you wanna close out the campaign. This is not the message you want to be talking about, and it's it is catnip for the media. Um, and you could see a bit of his frustration coming through when he was getting asked only about this. I think Abdul actually handled the questions about Haley quite well at the press conferences he did and tried to stay focused on the issues. **[0:22:45] Tommy Vietor:** But, like, I spent my weekend rage tweeting, I can't imagine how he felt with people who work for him. Um, I kinda think her antics won't have a big impact on the outcome. There was a very few undecided voters left in Michigan, I think less than 5%. Um, Democrats have largely coalesced around Abdul. If you were having doubts about Abdul, did you need Haley Stevens to tell you not to vote for him? Like, uh, I I don't know. **[0:23:06] Tommy Vietor:** She also seems, I think, genuinely unwell. Um, she may be in the midst of a mental health crisis, so she's probably not the best messenger, e- especially as she continued talking over and over again. Um, there is a chance maybe this rate, like, rallies the base, too. I I don't know, but she looked so petty and small, and I think it laid bare the standard, the double standard that Abdul is held to, which is he is called on to denounce this random ad, all sorts of things in her statement, uh, but she has no problem endorsing a candidate who is running one of the most bigoted, nakedly racist campaigns that I've ever seen. **[0:23:39] Jon Lovett:** Yeah, so so I when when when I saw this happen, I was like, knot in my stomach. And I saw people kind of wish casting, like, Oh, maybe this will backfire. And I'm, like, pretty convinced it will backfire. In part because she is so incoherent and watching someone say that they want there to be a Democratic Senate, but they are voting against Abdul and being unable to defend it and being unable to defend how they could violate so many of their principles, including saying they are campaigning against hate. **[0:24:05] Jon Lovett:** Uh, having made a series of demands of Abdul, including the most important one for her that he met and which she praised him for meeting, and then turning around So which and **[0:24:15] Jon Favreau:** which, uh, condemning the the Rebellion contents of the rebellion **[0:24:17] Tommy Vietor:** Back then. **[0:24:18] Jon Favreau:** packet? **[0:24:18] Jon Lovett:** yeah, there's the re the rebellion ca- uh ad by, uh uh, Jank Yuger and **[0:24:22] Jon Favreau:** The uncle? **[0:24:23] Jon Lovett:** the uncle, the uncle, clearly impactful, clearly, like, his insertion into this race was was wonderfully helpful, f- fantastic work. But he but Abdul did denounce. First of all, he had already disavowed it. He then disavowed and disagreed with it. Great. Like, I had thought it was a good thing for him to do, not because he was trying to win over Haley Stevens, but because for some small subset of people who were maybe undecided and reluctant and who are be Jewish Democrats, specifically in Michigan, being deluged with anti-Abdel hysteria, it was a free opportunity to dis to to, uh, disentangle having extreme criticisms of Israel while being able to call out anti-Semitism. **[0:24:58] Jon Lovett:** Glad he does that. She still changes her mind, uh, so she endorses, unendorses, endorses, and then unendorses Abdul while claiming nothing has changed for her. All of that, to me, adds up to kind of Democrats kind of coalescing around Abdul. And, like, you have really strong statements from everyone from Chuck Schumer to the to the left, saying that they, uh uh, are extremely upset with Haley, uh, Stevens for doing this. So in the end, I think it becomes a unifying moment. **[0:25:28] Jon Lovett:** Plus, he raises a bunch of money off of it. So, uh, in the end, do I think she makes a big difference? I like, there's probably a lot of that that fiance, uh, was saying how she was getting a a standing ovation from thousands. I don't know where that was taking place, uh, **[0:25:42] Jon Favreau:** Yeah, some some event. I saw some clip of it. **[0:25:44] Tommy Vietor:** Yeah, it was a Jewish but community event, I think, fundraiser. Yeah, **[0:25:46] Jon Lovett:** I I have a feeling that she is getting a lot of applause from a subset of Democratic voters who are planning to vote for against Abdul anyway. I don't know who is being brought along by Haley Stevens, and for everybody else, I think it is a unifying moment about the stakes in the election. And by the way, Abdul's remarks right after, where he talked about it, I just thought were excellent. Uh, and, uh, that's it. **[0:26:11] Tommy Vietor:** it's just worth pointing out, too, that, like, for those listening and thinking, Well, why didn't he just denounce the ad earlier? Her ransom note included much more than just denouncing the Very ad. It was like important. the ad didn't invent its argument, it dramatized one of Doctor El-Sayed's made in his own words. So she wanted him to basically condemn his own past statements and policies. Also, uh, get get Israel out of his explanation for everything Michigan can't afford. **[0:26:34] Tommy Vietor:** Apparently, we can't talk about the Iran war, increasing costs. She also wanted him to, uh, take down his advertisement featuring Tucker Carlson, Which, by the like, which **[0:26:43] Jon Lovett:** way, is just idiotic. **[0:26:43] Tommy Vietor:** she said, was an insult to the Black community. Like, it was just like this crazy, all over the place statement from her. **[0:26:48] Jon Lovett:** I was gonna say, like, I've had this sort of, um, uh, uh, I I this sort of experience of being on both sides of the algorithm in the last couple days, right? Because **[0:26:57] Jon Favreau:** Straight shooter. **[0:26:57] Jon Lovett:** we well, cause we posted we posted a video of my saying that Jewish voters in Michigan have a moral obligation, uh, to support Abdul, which, uh, got me just absolutely vil- like, I just, oh, you know, you would have you would have been a Jew loading people on the fucking trains. Like, that level, kind of, **[0:27:13] Tommy Vietor:** That's fun. **[0:27:14] Jon Lovett:** that's terrific. And then I I point out that I actually do think that that chenkad is anti-Semitic and that Abdul should denounce it. Uh, uh, not because he hasn't been against anti-Semitism, but just because I thought it was a free opportunity to demonstrate the points he's been making about the difference between, uh, having a disagreement on Israel and when a a ton of people feel as though, uh, they're being targeted, that he'll stand up for them. **[0:27:35] Jon Lovett:** Fine. Uh, uh, I think those two things do go together, and I think you see why when you have someone like Haley Stevens, uh, who is a abandoning everything that she claims to care about and claiming to making a decision based on hate while siding with Mike Rogers and making zero demands of him. She makes ridiculous demands of Abdul, not just to disavow an ad, which I thought Abdul should denounce before Haley Stevens ever put out a statement, but also to basically relitigate the disagreements they had over the course of the primary and a completely specious attack on an ad by Tucker Carlson. **[0:28:04] Jon Lovett:** If Tucker Carlson is saying bad things about Mike Rogers, damn right, get that in front of people. What are we? D let's stop being babies. It was a ridiculous, fake attack. But then also going over to Mike Rogers, no, no, no problem with the hateful rhetoric from Mike Rogers. No reassurances needed for Haley Stevens on any of that. **[0:28:18] Jon Favreau:** Well, this is, I mean, I I had a suspicion a around the time when she was, uh, you know, the calls to for him to condemn the ad and all that. Like, none of this was on the level. That, uh, and the reason that Abdul's team did not want to make a big deal of going even further to condemn the ad is because they knew that no condemnation is going to be enough for Haley Stevens and the people around Haley Stevens and the people criticizing Abdul. **[0:28:44] Jon Favreau:** And it's like, Apologize for this. Okay, I apologize for this. Denounce this ad. Alright, denounce this ad. Don't say this anymore. It's like, what you want is for him not to have the position he has on Israel. That's what you want. And and also, like, And like that, be beyond beyond that, like, it's never it's never enough. And then when your criticism of Du- Abdul, uh, doesn't seem like it's working with enough, uh, you know, Jewish Democrats in Michigan, now you're gonna throw in that he, uh, is somehow that, like, Black Democrats in Michigan should be wary of Abdul because of, uh, because Tucker Carlson is in an ad for five seconds saying that he wouldn't vote for Mike Rogers **[0:29:18] Jon Favreau:** with a gun to his head. As if that is some, like, you know, beyond the pale thing to include in an ad. It's the whole thing is fucking bullshit. And she proved it because he goes and denounces the ad, and then she's like, I don't want you to just denounce the ad. I want you to denounce what you said in the primary about Israel. And it's like, Well, the primary happened. Uh, he won. You endorsed him without a problem then, and now you're going back and saying he should I mean, it's just ridiculous. **[0:29:40] Jon Lovett:** Yeah, I I feel like these are separate things. I I agree, you're not. I don't think Abdul should denounce the ad to please Haley Stevens or the people that will that for whom there will never be enough. I thought it was the right thing to do to denounce the ad in part because it's being shared around Michigan as being his ad, which I don't think is fair. Uh, and the fact that he went from, you know, disavowing to say he disagrees with the statement, and which which Haley Stevens seemed to celebrate. **[0:30:04] Jon Lovett:** Like, it points out that Haley Stevens is not on the level. It doesn't mean that he isn't that it isn't the right thing to do in that case. Like, I thought it was I think it got harder as the week went on. Like, I think if he had just said that he disagreed with it from the beginning, I don't think it would have changed Haley Stevens. But clearly, like, this was a roiling issue. Like, I think it was yeah, **[0:30:21] Tommy Vietor:** a no, I think it was a roiling issue online in certain communities. I think in crass political terms, Abdul's job is to talk about the things he wants to talk about in a campaign and keep the focus on the issues he wants to focus on. So, like, I I could make a political argument for why you you don't denounce that ad because you don't want to get sucked into this morass of, like, relitigating all the shit that we fought about in the primary. **[0:30:40] Tommy Vietor:** Like, I I could also make the argument that denounce it and put out a statement and move on, right? Well, I I that's that's what think it's like, **[0:30:46] Jon Lovett:** I think. **[0:30:46] Tommy Vietor:** I I just think I think you could go either way. I think **[0:30:48] Jon Lovett:** But he ultimately does disavow it, right? Like, he does right, and it he does. didn't didn't help. And, Well, it didn't help with Haley like, Stevens, right? And it, like, it, it, like, well, first of all, it, d I mean, who knows? We can't making decisions about what to do in politics but the based on what a the point I'm head, **[0:30:59] Tommy Vietor:** making about the is a messaging focus one, which is like, she this wasn't about the ad. Like, this feels like a political rollout that started with her fiance, which led to this crazy statement, which led to this weird back and forth. And her lying to, like, everyone she knows in her life, her political mentors, people she was with at dinner. And then culminating in, like, this is what Anderson Cooper was trying to get at, like, what changed between midnight, like, Saturday and Sunday morning? **[0:31:25] Tommy Vietor:** It's inexplicable, right? Which is why I just like, don't trust that any of this would have helped because she was the one creating the, like, firestorm. **[0:31:32] Jon Lovett:** Yeah, what I'm trying to separate out, I agree with that. What I'm trying to separate out is the fact that Haley Stevens ultimately said she was pleased with his statement. And then does this crazy back and forth, uh, Hamlet routine until abandoning Abdul, part of whatever's going on in that relationship, whatever she's saying, lying, whatever. I don't have to worry about Haley Stevens. She seems fucking out of her mind. Fine. Uh, whether or not it was helpful to denounce the ad, like, I think it was the right thing to do. **[0:31:56] Jon Lovett:** I was glad he did it, and I was glad that Haley Stevens said it was the that he that that she was pleased by the statement, which seemed to have resolved it. Like, I hear, take your point, like, uh, he could have whether it was, like, necessary to go further in that first statement, whether he could have dispelled with it right at the beginning. I don't know that that changes anything to do with Haley Stevens. I I just a as I I like, just wanna, uh, separate out Haley Haley Stevens does not get to be the arbiter of what counts as anti-semitism. **[0:32:22] Jon Lovett:** She does not get to be the person that sets the standard, uh, for what, uh, is sort of, uh, helpful to put a small subset of reluctant Jewish voters in Michigan. Also, that small set, uh, subset of reluctant, uh, Jewish voters aren't gonna be the difference maker in this election. To your point, which is why they ended up bringing in all this other bullshit about how the Tucker Carlson is anti-black. Fine, uh, I just think those things should be separated because I like, I am glad that Abdul denounced the ad in part because my argument to Jewish voters who may not make a difference in this election, but who I care about because I'm part of that community. **[0:32:52] Jon Lovett:** I want them to understand why I believe feel so strongly that it is important because of Jewish values to support this campaign. And I think what Haley Stevens is doing is helping to make that case. **[0:33:01] Jon Favreau:** Yeah, and I do think that, I mean, we'll see how the results go, but just looking at this back to the Time Ciana poll. So this was, like, obviously, a, you know, probably Abdul's best result in a poll that we've seen. It is he matches, uh, Jocelyn Benson's margin pretty much in this poll. He matches he and Benson match the generic ballot in Michigan in this poll. So it's about, what, ten or eleven points. Um, if Trump win won Michigan by what, one, two points, and there's a shift to the nation, uh, the shift of the entire nation left about nine points on average in some of these polls, that pretty much lines up with where Michigan would be in **[0:33:38] Jon Favreau:** the poll. Abdul is winning 96% of Kamala Harris voters, and only 2% of Kamala Harris voters are voting for Mike Rogers. So, Democrats for Mike Rogers is not a real thing, at least in this poll, unless the poll is completely wrong. Now, uh, this was versus 91%, ninety one five was the split in September. So last time Time Ciana did this, Abdul's winning 91% of Democrats, 5% were with Mike Rogers, and now it's ninety six two. **[0:34:04] Jon Favreau:** Abdul's fav- favorability rating in this poll, 50% favorable, 38% unfavorable. Rogers is thirty seven forty nine, Trump is thirty four sixty. Abdul is favored on cost of living by fifty four thirty seven, foreign wars fifty two thirty nine, best for, uh, Michiganders like you, fifty three thirty nine. So, again, we could be waking up Wednesday and the whole poll could be wrong, but at least according to this poll, like, the the the media narrative, which is pushed obviously by Republicans, but also some centrist Democrats, some Democrats, is that, like, Abdul is extreme, he's too far left, hateful, footsies with Ant- all this kind of stuff. **[0:34:41] Jon Favreau:** Like, none of that is showing up in the actual numbers, in these numbers that we've seen. Again, there could be something hidden, but at least in what we've seen, they're not Where showing it. **[0:34:48] Tommy Vietor:** did the uncle rank on Yeah, yeah. Uncle **[0:34:51] Jon Favreau:** it was actually it was, like, cost of **[0:34:53] Tommy Vietor:** Uncle? **[0:34:53] Jon Favreau:** living, uncle, uh, and that, and and and hate, and just hate. And then it was, uh, the economy again. you know, Yeah, **[0:34:59] Jon Lovett:** what's what's interesting about the poll? And look, you know, Nate Nate Cohen, to his credit, uh, talked about why they put this out, even though, obviously it is, um, if he like, i if it turns out that it's closer, they're gonna be like, Oh, wow. They were so off, they were so in favor of the Democrats in this poll. And they talk about the challenge of reaching Republican voters. And they release the data of what the poll would look like if they kind of adjusted it down, and and Democrats are still winning, uh, in that in that polling. **[0:35:24] Jon Lovett:** But let's say that that even if the polling's a little bit off, it's not crazy off, right? And and Abdul really does have a sizable lead. I do think a lot of the debate that you see that clearly Haley Stevens is steeped in, her fiancé is steeped in, uh, is about what it would have looked like if it was much closer, right? The urgent need for him to make concessions on specific policies around Israel, right? The urgent, like, the effort to tar him in this specific way for a subset a small subset of voters in Michigan, right? **[0:35:50] Jon Lovett:** Jewish voters are a small subset of Michigan, uh, but based on this polling, that's just really not what's going on, which is making I also don't all **[0:35:57] Jon Favreau:** wanna pin this on Jewish voters in Michigan because there are plenty of Jewish voters in Michigan that are behind Abdul. And then there are plenty of people who are not Jewish at all who have been propagating these narratives about Abdul, including Mike **[0:36:08] Jon Lovett:** I should be no, no, Rogers. You know, sorry. I should be the I should be. I think that, like, the the effort to appeal to Jewish voters in this way, and to appeal to voters who may not. This may not be their number one eth- issue, but it's a kind of shibboleth about being a lefty. Fine, no, yes, and that that, uh, will have turned. We'll see, we'll see how important that was. One other thing, I just w- I I watched the Ross Doucet conversation with Abdul, the full full conversation, Yeah, that's the and **[0:36:33] Jon Favreau:** that's must-see TV. **[0:36:35] Jon Lovett:** uh, well, and and yeah, **[0:36:38] Tommy Vietor:** As long as there's an NFL lead in, some people agree with you. **[0:36:41] Jon Lovett:** well, this is available online because this is the un the unedited clip, right? Oh my god, This is the Trump uncut, insisted uncut, pure, pure, uncut uncut. Doublet. Doublet. Yeah, Doubt that Abdul. **[0:36:48] Tommy Vietor:** Uncut Doublet, that's what I want. Yeah, and it's, uh, More of that. **[0:36:51] Jon Lovett:** but, uh, I don't know, I assume it is an uncut Doublet. Well, it's Catholic. I don't know what word's **[0:36:55] Tommy Vietor:** I love that. **[0:36:56] Jon Lovett:** over there, but so, anyway, he's a traditionalist. Uh, it's a great conversation, and obviously the parts that have been clipped out have been about Israel. But it was just interesting to watch Abdul have a long, substantive, somewhat contentious conversation about healthcare, about data centers, about the economy and capitalism, about democratic socialist. And it was just a reminder too that, like, Abdul in the Senate, uh, will just be an interesting, thoughtful policy voice around a whole range of issues. **[0:37:23] Jon Lovett:** And he's an incredibly smart and talented politician and, uh, like, thinker about Democratic politics and policy. And that also, I think, gets lost in this Haley Stevens, uh uh, chaos. But that I was reminded of that today. **[0:37:45] Tommy Vietor:** This episode of Pot Save America is brought to you by our friends at Wildgrain. Cozy season is here, which means cooler temperatures, warm ovens, and the perfect time to enjoy fresh baked breads and seasonal treats at home. 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Again, that's Wildgrain dot com slash crooked forty, or use crooked forty at checkout. **[0:39:24] Tommy Vietor:** Pot Save America is brought to you by Vanta. When you run security for a company that's scaling fast, the stakes tend to heighten quickly. More compliance frameworks, more vendors, more risk, and a board that wants to see it all in one place. Uh-oh. **[0:39:37] Jon Favreau:** Too often, compliance data lives in silos, Classic. spread across separate tools, platforms, and contracts. As a result, your team spends more time connecting the dots than actually driving the program. Vanta connects it all. Its market-leading agentic trust platform is built for enterprise scale. What I always say, with 400 plus integrations and continuous monitoring, Vanta automates evidence collection, surfaces the risks that matter, and organizes your audit around your auditors requirements. 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As we've discussed, Hamilton has done a a great job of making an issue of, uh, Roger Marshall's history of sending debt collectors after his patients back when he was an OBGYN, uh, and in some cases, leading to them, uh, going to jail. **[0:41:13] Jon Favreau:** Marshall apparently got sick of his campaign's refusal to respond more forcefully to these charges. And, according to the New York Times, he went around his staff. This is always when, I love you know, things are this. I love getting good. **[0:41:25] Tommy Vietor:** this so much. **[0:41:26] Jon Favreau:** He went around his staff to record this ad with his own film crew, um, which he then posted on Twitter. Amazing. Let's watch. **[0:41:35] Jon Lovett:** I'm doctor Roger Marshall, and you should know the truth about Adam Hamilton's ads. They're false, plain and simple. Now, to ensure that 40,000 Kansans would still have access to care, we did have to keep the lights on. So, we occasionally handed some accounts over to collection agency, just like nearly every private medical practice does. To be crystal clear, the Kansas Bill of Rights ensures that no one can go to prison because of indebtedness. And I would never wish that on any patient I had the privilege to serve. **[0:41:35] Jon Lovett:** My involvement in any patient's account ended the minute it was turned over to an outside agency. I never had anyone arrested, not once, an Adam Hamilton note. **[0:42:12] Jon Favreau:** Never had anyone arrested is is your closing message. Um, uh, yeah, in case you want to parse what he's saying there, it is in the Kansas Bill of Rights that you can't go to jail for having debt. But what happened was people who got the debt collection notices and might not have known, then got a summons. If they didn't appear in court for the summons, then they went to jail as a result, or they were there You missed was an arrest **[0:42:33] Jon Lovett:** a court date. **[0:42:33] Jon Favreau:** warrant, there was a arrest warrant from the bench for them as a result. So it is it it is still true that people, because of the debt collection, ended up, uh, arrested. **[0:42:44] Jon Lovett:** I saw this ad and I didn't I actually hadn't seen the reporting about it. I saw this ad and the first thing I thought is he made them do this. His key is he is furious, uh, like, you like, Haley Stevens is in these crazy text messages that's riling her up. He was riling himself up with his B- doctor buddies about how he's getting the fucking shaft in this campaign. Weird, one He's like, **[0:43:02] Jon Favreau:** of them was Jason Turkish. **[0:43:05] Jon Lovett:** Yeah, the mastermind, the mastermind behind the whole goddamn thing. **[0:43:06] Tommy Vietor:** Well, I'm sure, yeah, he's probably got the group chat going, everyone's spinning him up. He's like, You know what? I'm gonna grab my Merlot shirt, and I'm gonna go out there, and I'm gonna talk about how I never knowingly had any new mothers arrested. And I think this is gonna work for me because the Kansas Bill of Rights says no one can go to prison because of indebtedness, but they might. It's like, what do you And someone, f- like, you can see **[0:43:23] Jon Favreau:** someone, someone get me that folksy guitar riff that's in all those ads. We don't need much more than that. **[0:43:28] Jon Lovett:** Now I wanna be holding the fence. I wanna be off to the side of the the one hand on shot. **[0:43:32] Tommy Vietor:** the fence. And and like, the way they rolled it out was the staff refused to air the thing. So he emailed it to random people. So one guy posted. So you get all the earned media of this ad kicking back up the stories about him getting the woman who just had a C-section arrested three times. But you get none of the benefit of paid media getting your message in front of people. It is the biggest, like, campaign cell phone I could imagine. **[0:43:55] Jon Lovett:** The first time I I was really, like, that, that that the race really caught my attention was when they had a debate at the state fair. Uh, just and and, uh, first of all, Hamilton's just a great candidate. Uh, but then Roger Marshall couldn't get a word out because he was being booed over this. And this has clearly just been dogging him everywhere he's going, and it has must been driving him crazy. And, like, their internals must not look so great because he's saying, Well, fuck it, I want this message out there. **[0:44:23] Jon Lovett:** And the staff is refusing to air it and leaking that they're refusing to air it. That sounds Uh, **[0:44:27] Tommy Vietor:** so corrupt. That staff sounds terrible. **[0:44:29] Jon Favreau:** this poll has Hamilton leading a a sample in the poll that leans Republican by nine points, and he's ahead by five points. The, uh, House ballot in the poll is fifty to forty seven, uh, Republicans. So there's a three point lean in the House ballot, it's a nine point lean in the state, and Adam Hamilton's still up five in this with this electorate in the poll. Um, another thing that was interesting is, uh, the number of voters who had either no opinion or didn't know. **[0:44:59] Jon Favreau:** I've never heard of him, um, Adam of Adam Hamilton, fell from 36% last time there was a good poll from New York Times Ciana, uh, in this state, to just 13%. So as he's gotten much more well known, usually your approval rating goes down, um, if the negative ads are working, but for him, it's only he it's only gotten better. Um, and he's got 13% of Republicans supporting him. And Roger Marshall, his favorability, his favorable rating is 39% in this poll. **[0:45:28] Jon Favreau:** 39% is also his very unfavorable rating. So not just total unfavorable, it's people who have an extremely unfavorable view of him is also the same as those who have a favorable view of him. **[0:45:39] Tommy Vietor:** Then this is a state where I'm skeptical of the polling for demographic reasons, and cause, I don't know, it seems like it's hard to poll Kansas. But Nate Cohen, uh, had a piece where he wrote about how the Times in 2022 had a poll that had, uh, Cheri's David's up fourteen points in the third congressional district in Kansas. They downplayed it cause it seemed unrealistic, and then she won by twelve. So they have a track record of actually calling the ball right in Kansas, which was interesting. **[0:46:02] Jon Favreau:** I had forgotten about that one. The other one I thought about is in 2022, the abortion ban. So, like, we've now, I mean, it sounds k- the whole Kansas thing sounds crazy, but when you think about the Cherie St. David's race, when you think about the abortion ban, which was a statewide ballot initiative, you think about the fact that Laura Kelly is governor right now. Uh, Democrat, Kathleen Sebelius, uh, our our friend Kathleen Siebers- Sebelius has been, uh, you know, very popular Democratic governor. **[0:46:27] Jon Favreau:** Like, it's not crazy that there would be a Democrat elected in Kansas, or at least not as crazy as it seems at first look. **[0:46:35] Jon Lovett:** yeah, I think there's a lot of people that have taken, uh, the current specific conditions of, uh, red states as sort of, like, some immutable fact of politics. The the ACA passes in part because you have people like Ben Nelson in Nebraska, right? It's just not we're not that far off from having, uh, Democrats as, uh, uh, senators in these places. And the idea that it's, uh, it's better to talk about abolishing the Senate than actually competing and winning these places, I think is, uh, pretty foolish. **[0:46:59] Jon Favreau:** Uh, closing message from, uh, Matt Schlapp. Remember Matt Schlapp? **[0:47:03] Jon Lovett:** Yeah, yeah, he did some he did some he did some slapping. He did He got him some slapping, into a trouble **[0:47:06] Jon Favreau:** got him in trouble. Conservative, uh, national conservative, Trump guy. Um, he he posted, Dear Kansas Conservatives, if we lose the Senate race in Kansas, we most likely lose the majority in the Senate. Vote Republican tomorrow, even those of you who are hurting. If you don't, it will all get much worse. Your message of frustration has been heard loudly and clearly. What a what a message. Yeah, I And also, know. has it has it been heard loudly and clearly by who? **[0:47:31] Jon Favreau:** By who who has heard the message? **[0:47:33] Jon Lovett:** Right. I mean, the the it's just so hard. The the other part of this, which is hard to untangle from the polls is okay. There's a concern that some of these rural voters, uh, these T Trump voters may not be as enthusiastic, and either they're not gonna vote or they're just not talking to pollsters. But also, we know that the tariffs and the and the and the war has had this disproportionate impact on some of his, uh, of Trump's best places, right? **[0:47:58] Jon Lovett:** And so it's just hard to disentangle what that will be. And actually, you know, that's that's why I think it's the the the kind of herding in polling. It leads to either everyone moving together correctly or everyone moving int- uh, together incorrectly. But in this case, I think we have a slightly of an a slightly outlier poll that's saying, oh, like, maybe things are actually, uh, uh, moving in this direction for real. We'll see. **[0:48:21] Jon Favreau:** Uh, over in Alaska, the race is closer, uh, with Mary Peltola just two points up on Dan Sullivan, according to the Times. Uh, it's not far off from where Nate's model has the race, uh, where Peltola's up by around two and a half points. Um, it is the only poll in the Times' last batch of polls where the margin has gotten tighter for Democrats. Uh, I think she was up six or seven in the last one. **[0:48:43] Jon Favreau:** We also got an update on the, uh, Dan Sullivan, Dan Sullivan ballot stacking scandal. Two Dan Sullivans, the Dan Sullivan. Uh, on Sunday, a federal judge dismissed the Department of Justice's Trump ordered lawsuit trying to block the election certification if the incumbent Sullivan lost. Trump is still complaining about the ballot stacking. Of course, he talked about it at the reflecting pool event on Monday, after posting a photo of the final Alaska ballot with the word scam. **[0:49:06] Jon Favreau:** You got Tim Sheehy, who's the senator from Montana, saying, Of course, we should f- never seat Mary Peltola if she wins. Um, what's your level of concern about the ballot stacking issue at this at this late stage? **[0:49:17] Tommy Vietor:** I I would say I'm a little there's like two levels to it. One, i is this gonna bother undecided voters and turn them away from Peltola? We don't know. I I'm skeptical that there's gonna be a lot of people, but it could move enough at the margin. And then two, it's like, will Trump try to use this story as a pretext to overturn the results if Republicans lose? I think one, we don't know. Two, absolutely. And the DOJ amended their lawsuit to include all the New York Times reporting, um, before it was tossed. **[0:49:42] Tommy Vietor:** So i it's very frustrating because, uh, even like, I don't think this is gonna really impact the vote all that much because of the way Alaska votes. But, uh, it was a ham-handed, foolish attempt to do some dirty tricks that, uh, I think, is backfiring pretty, pretty badly. **[0:49:59] Jon Favreau:** This is the one where, um, I think, the one race where I was like, M my view of the race has gone from the most bullish, uh, to like, now I don't I don't really know. A Alaska's very, very hard to poll. Um, it's just hard to get people on the phone there, it's hard to get people on the phone anywhere, but especially in Alaska. Um, also, I think that **[0:50:18] Jon Lovett:** Because it's so cold. **[0:50:19] Tommy Vietor:** you wonder why that is. You'd think with it's so cold, you'd be inside. **[0:50:23] Jon Favreau:** Yeah, I think it's just that, like, it's so rural and people are so spread out, it's all over. I think it's just it's a tough electorate to kinda, um, That they're not and the **[0:50:32] Jon Lovett:** but they're not going through the door. I mean, I I agree with you, I'm not saying you're doing a great bit. I actually haven't thought about it, like, why does them being far apart from one another change the way they answer the phone? **[0:50:39] Jon Favreau:** yeah, well, they also, I mean, they're they're they're doing mail, they're doing online **[0:50:42] Tommy Vietor:** right, it's tricky. **[0:50:43] Jon Favreau:** surveys, they're doing all that kind of stuff. Um, I think that, uh, also that Dan Sullivan is a is he's, like, you're seeing in these polls, he's like more well-liked than some of these Republican nominees. So that's how it's just it's just hard to it's hard to tell, uh, what's actually gonna happen there. And, um, so it's, you know, it's it's it's up in the air. **[0:51:03] Jon Lovett:** yeah, the only the third thing I would just add to Tommy's list is, even if there is nothing, uh, inherently illegal with having some random other Dan Sullivan run, is there any exposure in the effort to keep it a secret? Uh, and the the the deception about it, uh, which I think would play into Trump's hand as well, and Trump's DOJ's hands as well, we'll see. Um, here's my question. If the if, the if the response is, well, it doesn't really matter because there's ranked choice voting. **[0:51:30] Jon Lovett:** What was the value of doing it? **[0:51:32] Jon Favreau:** We Dan and I talked about this, uh, on Friday, and it it like, there wasn't a ton of value in doing it there. I if you really dig into it, if The you rank the different choices, like, there's some there some people there **[0:51:44] Jon Lovett:** drop off? Maybe they only vote I used to one like, **[0:51:47] Jon Favreau:** here's the thing. **[0:51:47] Tommy Vietor:** it's part of it. **[0:51:48] Jon Favreau:** They every every Alaskan voter that they've interviewed since then have been like, first of all, we knew this was happening the whole time. You have to you have to think we're fucking idiots to not understand, which which is says something bad both about the effort to do it and the effort to make people think that the effort to do it was sleazy and b- beyond the pale. Cause most people in Alaska, I think, are just like, Yeah, of course we know the well, difference, and like, what the fuck? **[0:52:08] Jon Lovett:** well, it is sleazy, but it's a question whether it'd be efficacious, right? **[0:52:12] Jon Favreau:** That's what I'm saying, right? Which is, I think that people in Alaska were skeptical about. **[0:52:15] Tommy Vietor:** I think, weirdly, in 2014, there were two Dan Sullivans on the ballot at the same time, just by happenstance. Yeah, gosh. But, um, just to be clear, like, the Republicans do it too in Alaska, I think, because of the system, there's always just efforts to, like, leach away a few votes from each side. I think this cycle, uh, the main Republican Super PAC spent like 500 grand to get a Green Party candidate who lives in Arizona to run. **[0:52:36] Tommy Vietor:** And there was like there was a lot of paid communications, like $800,000 worth of paid communications designed to siphon votes away from Democrats to fringe candidates. So, for some reason, everyone just fucks around in Alaska. **[0:52:45] Jon Favreau:** I will say Sarah Longwell's, um, final focus group was Alaska voters. Uh, I was listening to the episode over the weekend, and she's talking to Amy Walter. First of all, talking about why it's hard to poll Alaska. Sarah could only get three Alaska voters for the focus group. That's, uh, she was like, looking far and wide. Um, and you did One of hear **[0:53:04] Jon Lovett:** them was a moose. **[0:53:05] Jon Favreau:** you did hear these w- these three women who were, like, pretty conservative, saying, like, don't like Trump, but, like, Dan Sullivan's always been they all know Dan Sullivan, they all know Mary Peltola, right, because it's a small enough state. Um, but the best anecdote, which will confirm all of our priors, was, um, there's this woman who was a Trump twenty four voter, Sullivan twenty two voter, or S Sullivan twenty voter, sorry, six years ago. Um, and was like, you know, I was gonna I don't I'm not happy with Donald Trump, but I like Dan Sullivan, and I was just gonna I was gonna vote for him again and just vote the same way. **[0:53:37] Jon Favreau:** But then Trump came to the state and did that rally, **[0:53:39] Tommy Vietor:** That's great. **[0:53:40] Jon Favreau:** and now not gonna do it, voting for Peltola. It's like, God bless that it's so funny woman. that Trump goes to Alaska and his rally turned off a voter. **[0:53:47] Jon Lovett:** Yeah, the, o- the, uh, the other thing too, is the the like, these polls are all obviously very good news for Democrats if they hold. Uh, but one I talked about this with Dan this morning, uh, on the Rapid Response that, uh, it also shows late breaking voters b- going towards Republicans by plus nine, which is a little bit confusing. Uh, but take that as a fact. Then, if people really are breaking towards Republicans, it really won't matter if the margins are where they're at in these other states. **[0:54:12] Jon Lovett:** You have a bunch of Democrats over fifty, but here in in Iowa, in Alaska, where it's this close, people late breaking, uh, would could close the gap. **[0:54:20] Jon Favreau:** Yeah, I think I think it makes sense, but it's also not something to it. It's not unexpected because these are red states that Donald Trump won by double digits. And so the undecided is naturally gonna be mostly Republican voters. And so you're gonna get some to the extent that the Republican creeps up, you're gonna get P voters coming home, which is why you're getting like these. D late deciders or later deciders who tune, who t who are just tuning in late, actually go just coming home to Republicans. **[0:54:47] Jon Lovett:** Well, it would be, yeah, I, yes, it would be that they are late deciders in an environment where a lot of Republicans who have decided early decided to vote for a Democrat. Right? **[0:54:58] Jon Favreau:** right. Um, all right, let's talk Texas. Uh, where the times had. Hillary up by seven points and leading Ken Paxton by, uh, three and a half points in Nate's model, like Trump, Paxton's also closing strong. His campaign appeared to cancel the final event of his come and take it tour, which was set to take place at the Alamo. He canceled the event at the Alamo. **[0:55:20] Tommy Vietor:** Well, your other option is get slaughtered by Santa Ana's guys. So **[0:55:24] Jon Lovett:** It's just funny. It's funny, too, because I can see being talked into the Alamo metaphor and then also being talked out of the Alamo metaphor. Cause it is a it is perhaps a place to do your last stand, but of course, the reason we do remember the Alamo. **[0:55:35] Jon Favreau:** You've got a stand, though. **[0:55:36] Jon Lovett:** You gotta go, you can't forget the Alamo. **[0:55:37] Jon Favreau:** Yeah, it's gotta be a stand. It'd love You gotta stand to be the last stand. **[0:55:39] Jon Lovett:** there. But also, it's not like it's a metaphor about winning, it's a metaphor about yeah, yeah, imminent getting death. getting the big L. And it's where Pee-wee Herman's bicycle was. **[0:55:47] Tommy Vietor:** No basement. Most importantly, No basement in the Alamo. **[0:55:50] Jon Favreau:** no basement. **[0:55:50] Jon Lovett:** No basement in the Alamo. **[0:55:51] Tommy Vietor:** So we learned. **[0:55:52] Jon Favreau:** Paxton also closed his speech on Sunday by saying, Quote, Texas has never been this close to slipping away. We've never been this close to losing everything that we hold dear. If Texas falls, we don't have another Texas to move to, which is technically true. So, uh, **[0:56:05] Tommy Vietor:** It's just gonna float down to Gulf. **[0:56:07] Jon Lovett:** I I also just that's a very funny kind of sentence for just a losing candidate. Just just like, Hey, do you think there's a chance that you're talking about yourself? Are you a little wor- you know? It's like, like, this is a very big deal for you to lose. I feel this is very emotional for you, Ken Paxton. **[0:56:21] Jon Favreau:** uh, last thoughts on Texas, blue Texas. Is it happening? **[0:56:25] Tommy Vietor:** I mean, it's weird to feel good about Texas. It's mostly because of the demographics, like 40% Latino. Um, it's because Paxton is such a historically terrible candidate. I mean, he gave a he gave a pedophile a sweetheart deal, he stole from his friends, his staff reported him to the FBI, he was impeached by Republicans, and he seems to, uh, have a hard time keeping it within the confines of his marriage. Everything like he does. **[0:56:49] Jon Lovett:** What's funny about that is **[0:56:50] Jon Favreau:** That's a nice way to say it. **[0:56:50] Jon Lovett:** that what's funny about that is basically those all apply to Trump Yeah, that's true, every single one. **[0:56:56] Tommy Vietor:** that's true. I also think they they tried really hard to make Talerico into a boogeyman. It just it doesn't seem like it's worked particularly well. I don't know. Talerico's skilled, you know, **[0:57:07] Jon Favreau:** James Talerico is too much of a pussy for Texas. Just didn't work. I think like he, he's. His favorable rating in this poll is like plus ten, and Paxton is, uh, negative twenty one. Now, if Paxton ends up pulling this out and winning, you can see here he gets Paxton in this poll gets 44% of the vote, even though he's at 33% approval. So this is like, do enough Texas Republicans hold their nose and vote for Ken Paxton? **[0:57:35] Jon Favreau:** Not because they like Ken Paxton, not even necessarily because they dislike James Talerico, but just because they're Republicans and they can't vote for Democrats. Like that is the because, again, this is a state where Trump won. It's Texas, and so, you know, it's a. It's a. It's a hard partisan lean to overcome. **[0:57:49] Jon Lovett:** It's also funny to think about mismanagement in California, cause a lot of people to move out of this state, and a lot of those people did end up in Texas. Now, I think that's probably a more conservative group than a typical California voter, but it is also gonna be a subset of people who are very motivated around the economy and just not as sE, not as susceptible to kinda hippy dippy persuasion. **[0:58:10] Jon Favreau:** Yeah, and and so and tell, uh, uh, Gina Inahosa is, uh, up in this poll as well. Uh, that race has been Talerico's like two points ahead of, uh, Inahosa, and Paxton's four points behind Abbott. Um, and so, you know, the governor's race is obviously much tighter, but we will see. In Iowa, the race continues to look pretty tight as well. Time Cena has Josh Turek up just one point on Ashley Hinson, forty eight, forty seven. **[0:58:35] Jon Favreau:** Um, and, you know, Nate and his average has it at point seven, so by any measure, it's, uh, effectively a tie. Uh, Trump was in Dubuque on Sunday, where he tried to break the race open by rallying his supporters around this message. **[0:58:47] Donald Trump:** I knew Ashley for a long time and she was a little bit heavier, but she had the weight She's that was on her, really literally the weight, and she knew the importance of what she was doing. oh my gosh, And she went out the old-fashioned way, too, not with, you know, give me a shot. Boy, she put herself, she went on a regimen, she put herself in shape, she's in perfect shape. She was good, I thought she was great the other way, but she put herself in shape and she did that for years. **[0:59:15] Donald Trump:** Me, I put on a couple of pounds. I hate to say **[0:59:18] Tommy Vietor:** I had not seen that. I didn't see I cannot that at all. **[0:59:20] Jon Lovett:** fucking believe that is real. **[0:59:23] Tommy Vietor:** Did that. That was his route. What, well, cause **[0:59:26] Jon Favreau:** you know what he's, he wants to treat both genders equally. **[0:59:30] Tommy Vietor:** right? Yeah, that's true. **[0:59:31] Jon Favreau:** If he's going to be talking about John Houston's ass nonstop, he's gotta say something about the female candidates. look, Donald Trump and And she his sexual didn't, and she didn't, she. She did it the and sexist, not old-fashioned way. to. She didn't fucking take the shot. **[0:59:43] Tommy Vietor:** like I did. **[0:59:44] Jon Lovett:** Yeah, all of a s, Yeah, Donald Trump, the one issue he's a fucking Calvinist on, is weight loss. The uh, the uh, also, it's funny, too. It's like Trump's sexuality has always been really interesting, and for him, it's about the person. **[0:59:54] Tommy Vietor:** Sapio sexual. **[0:59:55] Jon Lovett:** Yeah, he's just like he, he like John Houston, that does it for him. Ashley Hinson, that does it for him. He just what he, what he's attracted to. Yeah, it's a body, it's a body, but it's also a mind, and he doesn't see gender, you know, the way that we do. Uh, so that's that's kinda cool about him. **[1:00:10] Tommy Vietor:** I asked Harry Enten if, um, there's, you know, the polls tell us anything about a benefit from being caked up. So you gotta listen to this on the episode to hear that. Don't **[1:00:19] Jon Lovett:** What's what's caked up? **[1:00:20] Tommy Vietor:** Having a just a big, thick, juicy ass like a bounce a bounce like a **[1:00:24] Jon Favreau:** a quarter off it. **[1:00:25] Tommy Vietor:** like a Houston. Yeah, get two dimes and a nickel back. **[1:00:27] Jon Favreau:** As we've discussed, Democrat Rob Sand seems to be running way ahead of Turek in the governor's race. Uh, he's at more than seven in Nate's average. Tommy, what do you think? You think there's gonna be a bunch of ticket splitters here? You think that that that Rob could help Josh get over the finish line at the end? **[1:00:41] Tommy Vietor:** I hope so. I mean, yeah, Rob's running a really good campaign. It's a unique campaign. It's sort of this nonpartisan campaign. Um, he's also benefiting because his opponent lives in Kansas. That's always a good thing when you can run against someone who doesn't live in the state. But like I, I was talking how many points to, um, **[1:00:54] Jon Favreau:** do you give him for looking like you uh, dozens, dozens dozens? Does does and dozens, not that? Where it's worth like **[1:00:58] Tommy Vietor:** more than, you know, hundreds. **[1:00:58] Jon Favreau:** a a point or two, at least No, yeah, I in the in mean, that that's the home stretch? **[1:01:00] Tommy Vietor:** the that's four X being kicked up, in my opinion. Um, I was talking to JD. Shulkin earlier today, uh, served in the Iowa State legislature, ran for Congress. He personally knocked on a thousand doors, uh, probably in Western Iowa, where he lives. He says it's the best environment of his political career, meaning like the best targeting, the best lists, uh, more persuasion conversations, the best conversations overall, and like more people knowing what the hell is going on. **[1:01:23] Tommy Vietor:** So that's th- that is optimistic. That tells me that Rob's got a really good field program, cause he's got a lot of money. And then he can hopefully turn out more Democrats and then independents that are Democratic leaning that you need in that state to win. The pessimistic case for Josh Turek in that Senate race is the Republicans spent, I think, $100 million against him. And Ashley is a way better opponent, regardless of what Trump thinks about her appearance and how she lost weight. **[1:01:47] Tommy Vietor:** I think the **[1:01:47] Jon Favreau:** well, he loves it. **[1:01:48] Tommy Vietor:** question, Yeah, he does love it. The question for Turek's, uh, the question I think will will be answered by the election is do tariffs, do diesel prices keep home enough conservative farmers that are enraged about the economy? **[1:02:01] Jon Favreau:** Yeah, I think this, I think you're exactly right. This is a, um, environment election more than it is candidate on the Senate side, right? Because, first of all, gotta give Josh Tirk his due here. I think when you, um, talk to people about all these races and all these candidates, and you talk about Josh Tirk, everyone's like, Yeah, he's a good candidate, he's a good candidate. He has the best Democratic net favorability, I of any of the candidates polled in **[1:02:25] Tommy Vietor:** It's crazy. **[1:02:25] Jon Favreau:** this seven-state set by New York Times. SIEA. And like, it's just so funny because everyone you know a lot about Abdul and James Talerico, and who's popular and who's not. Josh Turek, most favorable, highest favorable rating of anyone in the poll. Now Ashley James Hin Ashley Com- Hinson has the highest favorable rating of any Republican of the seven. So now you're the two people who are the most favorable. Now **[1:02:48] Tommy Vietor:** nice off. **[1:02:49] Jon Favreau:** hers, hers is still forty three, forty three, like that, that's what it takes to be the best rated Republican of anyone in these states. Um, but so I think that's why it ends up being like, just does Iowa as a state get over the hump of, like, what the partisan lean is of that state? Because, you know it, you know, Democrat hasn't won it since Barack Obama did. **[1:03:14] Tommy Vietor:** Potse of America is brought to you by Walmart every single week. Walmart keeps prices low for 150 million Americans across the country. It is all part of their decades-long commitment to hardworking families that started back in 1962 with a simple tagline Always low prices, always. 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Learn more today at Walmart dot com slash save money. **[1:04:21] Jon Favreau:** In Ohio, Sherrod leads John Houston, ass man, by five, according to the Times, and by three, according to Nate. Uh, not much to say here other than the fact that the state has apparently set a a midterms early voting record. Also, though, they have this horrible law there that there's like one early midterm voting location per county, which is why it's been so fucking hard to do. Um, **[1:04:42] Jon Lovett:** Well, cause, you know, there's, there's, there's the counties, some are very big and some are very small. **[1:04:47] Jon Favreau:** right, exactly, exactly. Uh, Vance was also in the state on Monday, where he closed out the campaign by, you know, fearmongering about quote illegal communities of Somali immigrants, quote coordinating to flood the polls and drown out Ohio voters. Excellent, wonderful stuff from the vice president in his home state. Um, what do you guys think about this one? This is another. This is sort of like Alaska, where as we get closer to the end, I'm like, Ugh, can can we do it in Ohio? **[1:05:11] Jon Favreau:** Because it's such a it's become such a tough state for Democrats. Again, I, I, I've always believed if anyone can do it, it's Sherrod and I also. And like in this poll, Amy Acton is also forty nine, forty three over Vivek, uh, which is very close to the margin, uh, Sherrod's margin. Um, and so, you know, Brown's favorables in this poll is forty six, forty four. Uh, Houston is thirty six, forty eight. Uh, so it's not like anyone likes John Houston, and people do like Sherrod Brown. **[1:05:37] Jon Favreau:** But again, the, you know, Donald Trump won this by double digits, so **[1:05:41] Tommy Vietor:** Yeah, I, I, I share your fear. It's it's such a tough state. I think it's trending against us. I'm so used to seeing polls in the end that have the Democrat at like forty six, forty seven, and then we lose. Um, Harry Enten pointed out to me, I mean, obviously Sherrod's a great candidate, he's like the best candidate we could have run. Harry Enten pointed out that there are people, respondents in polls who think that Sherrod is the incumbent, which is like a funny, goofy thing to imagine. **[1:06:03] Tommy Vietor:** Here's my big hope. I am hoping that Vivek Ramaswamy, being the worst person in the world and running one of the most shameful ads in history against Amy Acton, will collapse the electorate, throw the election, uh, to both Acton and Sherrod Brown, and hopefully turn the state to us. That's my great hope. **[1:06:25] Jon Lovett:** Yeah, that that's my feeling, too, that that, like, people have gotta be demoralized. If you're watching your g uh, gubernatorial nominee, uh, do this despicable ad campaign that has completely backfired on him. There's another moment where he's confronted by someone else, just he's just constantly being kind of hounded by questions following this. He can't defend it. Um, it's, it's just, he's gotta bring people down. And in this poll, right, Sherrod is up by five. What's that? **[1:06:49] Tommy Vietor:** Leave it in. That's pundit, **[1:06:51] Jon Lovett:** That's pundit. Sherrod's up by five, right? Like, there's still, there's still room for the poll to be wrong, for him still to it's a dumb to. **[1:06:57] Jon Favreau:** Emerson poll that came out right ugh, before we recorded that's that has Houston up three. **[1:07:00] Tommy Vietor:** ruined my day. Did you see the photos? There's a tweet that was went pretty viral of, um, Vivek Ramaswamy's haircut, and it just said, Vivek went to his barber and said, Fuck my shit up. **[1:07:12] Jon Lovett:** He's just so unappealing. I guess, but I guess the the the other point of optimism is like, well, it it doesn't really makes like, if if it really is this close in in Iowa, in Kansas, right in in South Carolina, wherever, like, right, it just wouldn't make sense that Iowa, Iowa's not a hard state Yeah, it's compared to those states. **[1:07:30] Jon Favreau:** just Appal- every, every state that touches Appalachia is the is. So it's like Eastern Ohio, Western Pennsylvania. You start getting these areas of the country that are different than the the Republican voters in the plain states. But the other thing is, you have, like, you know, Hamilton County, where Cincinnati is, has become, like, much more democratic, right? And so, like, does that offset the rest of the state and some of the rural areas? Then do you get enough to turn out in Cleveland? **[1:07:55] Jon Favreau:** Um, which sometimes lags, but, like, you know, Sherrod did this eight years ago. Now, eight years ago is a long time, but in 2018, Tr- was it Trump? Midterm? Uh, what, that was, was that eight years ago? Yeah, Jesus Christ, we've been doing this a long time, **[1:08:05] Jon Lovett:** We've been doing a long time. **[1:08:06] Jon Favreau:** uh, but you know, he, he did it with a midterm electorate. So, uh, all he has to do is, you know, how much, how much has Ohio changed? The electorate change in eight years is the question. And the other thing different from eighteen is Trump is much less popular than he was when Sherrod won the state in 2018. So if he wins, that's the explanation. **[1:08:23] Jon Lovett:** Yeah, it's it's worth saying I I had to talk about this with Dan earlier as well. That in 2018, the economy had a positive approval rating. Donald Trump was not nearly as unpopular he is right now. There wasn't a war in Iran, right? There's a lot of reasons to believe that this should feel different than 2018. **[1:08:39] Jon Favreau:** yep, that brings us to our last state, Maine. Uh, Time Cena has Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins by six, fifty one to forty five. Woo hoo! Uh, Nate has Put that it at **[1:08:47] Jon Lovett:** in your b- put that four. in your boba. **[1:08:52] Jon Favreau:** So you didn't go for a cord of wood joke there? Uh, so pretty stable, uh, it's a pretty stable, if not overwhelming, lead for Jackson. That's actually expanded a bit over the course of the fall. Uh, I don't know what. How you guys feel, uh, we felt tense about this one for a while, but, you know, at least this is one where, on paper, the evidence keeps getting better for Jackson as we get to the close. **[1:09:13] Jon Favreau:** dude, I get to, But **[1:09:14] Tommy Vietor:** I get to Maine, and I have face blindness. I got I got nothing, I got nothing, I got nothing going on there. **[1:09:19] Jon Lovett:** yeah, we don't. Yeah, no I mean, here's feelings on Maine. **[1:09:21] Jon Favreau:** the here's the one that if you're just we, we've feel for it, here. On the other side, like, we've been talking about all these red states that have partisan leans where Trump won them by double digits. And they're just really Republican state. That's gonna take a real overperformance, um, by the Democratic candidate to put them over the top in Alaska, Ohio, Iowa. This is one where if you're just doing like partisan lean and like the and you're doing the generic ballot shifts nine or ten points, then Maine's like a plus seventeen Democratic state, right? **[1:09:49] Jon Favreau:** And I know everyone's like, Susan Collins is magic, and she's Teflon and all this kind of stuff. But **[1:09:55] Tommy Vietor:** Like, her approval's way down, **[1:09:56] Jon Favreau:** and her, her, yeah, her approval in this poll is forty eight, forty nine, right? Which is still good, but not what way down from it was, her, yeah, not what it was. Jackson's still underwater, but he's forty five, forty eight. The independents in the poll, uh, the times poll where she was leading by three, were forty seven, forty seven. It is now fifty two, forty one in favor of Troy Jackson in this poll. So that is probably a big reason why he's leading in the House generic ballot now. **[1:10:19] Jon Favreau:** And Hannah Pingree's running for governor. They're like more fifty five, forty two, so they're now closer to where Troy Jackson is. Which, which tells you that the partisan lean of the state and the polarization of the state is sort of just naturally, you know, like all the the. If you were a Democrat and you weren't sure about Jackson, you're kinda coming home at this point. At least that's what the numbers are showing. Yeah, it is **[1:10:39] Tommy Vietor:** this is. **[1:10:39] Jon Lovett:** a good politician. I, I never thought she was magic. She's a good politician, right? She has, and she has done a lot of just good old-fashioned politics in Maine for a very, very, very long time, and that bought her a lot of goodwill and credibility. The question is, can that? Is that a strong enough, uh, uh, you know, seawall against the waters that that are rising? And and hopefully the answer is no. They A little. But really are in **[1:11:01] Tommy Vietor:** Yeah, I like that. Maine. Yeah, Sure, hm, yeah, how heard, heard about about that? yeah, but that, heard a lot but in, but in of stories about Maine, they love **[1:11:04] Jon Favreau:** that there. **[1:11:05] Tommy Vietor:** their invertebrates, like Susan Collins. Well, You know what I'm saying, we're doing metaphors, right? right, yeah, because **[1:11:12] Jon Lovett:** and also lobsters are invertebrates. Yeah, we went from speaking of surf to turf from Yeah, they're bugs. the oyster guy They're kinda big to s the logger bugs. If **[1:11:17] Tommy Vietor:** guy to logger. **[1:11:17] Jon Lovett:** you think about a lobster, Yeah, they're big it's kinda like a bugs. big bug, **[1:11:20] Tommy Vietor:** They're big, gross bugs. **[1:11:20] Jon Lovett:** big, delicious bugs. **[1:11:22] Tommy Vietor:** You boil them alive and that's **[1:11:23] Jon Favreau:** hoping to keep all these, **[1:11:24] Tommy Vietor:** okay for people. **[1:11:24] Jon Favreau:** hoping to keep all these You don't occasional or new listeners after the election. But this kind of **[1:11:28] Jon Lovett:** you don't have to. L, you don't get out of here, have, you you know, like this don't. I just this isn't a wanna say, show. Fuck if you, yeah, **[1:11:31] Tommy Vietor:** off, you don't like it. **[1:11:32] Jon Lovett:** yeah, yeah, what? Sorry? Yeah, no skin off my fucking Only the back. Hey, listen, the yeah, no exoskeleton of yeah, **[1:11:37] Jon Favreau:** a best. **[1:11:37] Tommy Vietor:** best part of the show. And then it gets a little loopy, **[1:11:39] Jon Lovett:** yeah. I just wanna be clear. You don't have to boil a lobster alive, you take the lobster, you put it down, you take a knife, you go right And then that is in and you the humane pull back **[1:11:45] Tommy Vietor:** way to do it. and then you boil Are you doing **[1:11:47] Jon Favreau:** that? **[1:11:47] Tommy Vietor:** That is the humane way to do I've done it. it, I've **[1:11:49] Jon Lovett:** done it, but do it again, **[1:11:50] Jon Favreau:** okay, great. **[1:11:51] Jon Lovett:** do it again. It's not aesthetically pleasing, but it's more ethical. **[1:11:54] Tommy Vietor:** It's a tough process. **[1:11:56] Jon Favreau:** Final thoughts, guys, this is the section called Final thoughts. We've reached it. Uh, we generally prefer not to play pundit here. Who said **[1:12:03] Tommy Vietor:** Who wrote that? that? No, Who wrote that? **[1:12:05] Jon Favreau:** that's, you know what? It's my fault for not looking at this closely. This is on me, this is on me. I got lazy at the end. We don't like to predict here. We, of course, play pundit. that's all That is what we've we. We're done, though, actually not only honestly, fucking episodes. **[1:12:18] Jon Lovett:** we're not playing pundit, we're living We are, it. The only thing I'm qualified yeah, we wish to do. Yeah, we wish we were well, playing. The whole world's a stage for We're living them. **[1:12:25] Jon Favreau:** anyway. We generally do love, we like to live pundit here. **[1:12:28] Jon Lovett:** Yeah, live laugh pundit. **[1:12:29] Tommy Vietor:** there's a dog named Pundit, Yeah, there's a dog isn't there? Right named Pundit in the now? room. **[1:12:32] Jon Favreau:** we try not to do too many predictions, uh, but we're gonna do some, uh, some sort of broader picture stuff at Wonderful, at the end here. There's been some discussion about how anything less than winning both chambers will feel like a loss for Democrats at this point. Do you guys buy that? Yeah, so much. So expectations **[1:12:51] Tommy Vietor:** are fucked. **[1:12:51] Jon Lovett:** no, I'm sorry. I like, I look, it'd be, you know, I, but play this if I try to say otherwise. After, uh, in this environment with a president this despicable, uh, within a legal war with the tariffs, with the Republican Congress, rubber stamping this ridiculous, vile, lawless administration. If we can't win both chambers, then yes, that will be a loss. **[1:13:13] Jon Favreau:** yeah, I think I like, I'm not, I'm not dodging it, cause you're right. Like, expectations is way out of control. And like, Republicans will be crowing, like, you know, forever, if we don't win the Senate, um, but I really like it. To me, it's binary, right? Like you, it's about the consequences of winning the Senate or not, or or like the consequences of not winning the Senate. Like, we're, we're probably gonna win the House. Like, I, I'm Almo- I'm Nate's up to, like, ninety **[1:13:36] Tommy Vietor:** It feels constant. 5%, right? And Yeah, **[1:13:38] Jon Favreau:** everyone can look at the old Hillary chart in 2016. It was never at ninety five not, percent, okay? **[1:13:42] Tommy Vietor:** I don't think so. Seventy **[1:13:43] Jon Favreau:** So we get the House, no more Donald Trump legislation, the Democrats don't approve. So, like, that part of the presidency, **[1:13:48] Tommy Vietor:** because he's been on a legislative tear. Yeah, **[1:13:50] Jon Favreau:** more big B, one big, beautiful bill, right? None of **[1:13:53] Tommy Vietor:** no, that was terrible. that, none of Yeah, **[1:13:53] Jon Favreau:** that shit. Um, the Senate, it really like we get the Senate, we can hold off two Supreme Court, judges. one or two Supreme Court appointments, and like dozens of other judges. And if we don't, Alito and Ta and Lito, probably, and maybe Thomas, then we're gonna get two more justices that are like, fucking, you know, Eileen Cannon or worse, in their thirties I, for decades. So I just, that that that to me is the is the binary in the Senate of course, right **[1:14:19] Jon Lovett:** that. That's why it would not just feel like a loss, but would be be, a loss. yeah, that's, yeah, But I would also like, I don't. I I think if we can win the Senate, uh, that is a that is an incredible feat, given this environment, right? And it wasn't that long ago that it looked, uh, uh, if not impossible, very, very difficult given the places we're talking about competing now. We're just we are the day before an election and we have a poll, uh, that has us up in some of the red states in the country. **[1:14:43] Jon Lovett:** Like, that's remarkable. Uh, I hope they're right. Um, but I, I also do worry. We just went through this Haley Stevens news cycle. I take Fetterman at his word that he doesn't wanna switch parties. I also don't, wouldn't, um, you know, bet my life on it, especially when the way we have these arguments online. Uh, we definitely are not sort of, you know, uh, uh, uh, coaxing, right? There's a lot of like vitriol directed at Fetterman. **[1:15:04] Jon Lovett:** These are people that are clearly very online. Haley Stevens is clearly very online. I think John Fetterman is very online. And so, boy, fifty two seat Senate really a **[1:15:12] Tommy Vietor:** very cool. **[1:15:12] Jon Lovett:** nurse against that problem? **[1:15:14] Jon Favreau:** I kind of think it's also. It matters which red states we win or potentially lose here, uh, for long term, right? Like we have known since the Obama era that states like Iowa, Ohio, um, are like just moving away from Democrats just because of demographics, long term. Like, it's going to be harder and harder for Democrats to win Ohio, to win, uh, even Michigan and Pennsylvania. Like, as we go on, if we, I mean, we're we're gonna win Georgia, most likely North Carolina, if we can also win Texas, and then we and and South a that's also the Carolina and Mississippi, the right. **[1:15:46] Jon Favreau:** Like, if we start doing better like that matters, not just for the Senate, uh, like, so let's say we lose the Senate, right? But we win, like Texas, uh, and North Carolina and Ge- like. That says for twenty eight and beyond that, on the presidential level, that we now can compete in some of these Southern Sunbelt states in a real way that we couldn't before. And I think that would be like, **[1:16:08] Tommy Vietor:** that'd be cool. **[1:16:08] Jon Favreau:** if we, if we lose Texas, if we lose all, like if we lose all of them all at once, then that's gonna be fucking terrible. **[1:16:14] Tommy Vietor:** Um, not for nothing. Could you? Imma like, look, we all feel pressure. Uh, no one wants to die. Hm, okay, most people, But we all wanna take care of ourselves, for ourselves, for our families. Could you imagine the pressure you feel to stay alive? If you're a liberal judge in the Trump administration, like on the Supreme Court, you ooh, are, like, on the treadmill, yeah, get yourself you are, **[1:16:34] Jon Favreau:** keep in that bubble. **[1:16:35] Tommy Vietor:** you are crushing up Lipitor Yeah, you're and doing all these listening to that guy things every single that lives forever morning. **[1:16:38] Jon Favreau:** that talks about his his wife. **[1:16:40] Tommy Vietor:** Yeah, that you're that guy imagining his son's erections that reminds you of **[1:16:43] Jon Favreau:** that guy. **[1:16:43] Tommy Vietor:** Brian Johnson. **[1:16:44] Jon Lovett:** Um, you're making me remember when RBG did that wedding or performed that wedding, or remembered during Covid, there was some moment, **[1:16:49] Tommy Vietor:** She's planking or something. **[1:16:49] Jon Lovett:** but then there was that. **[1:16:50] Jon Favreau:** I don't even remember that. Oof, all right. Uh, next question. **[1:16:53] Tommy Vietor:** I think Pundit farted, by the way. **[1:16:55] Jon Favreau:** I, I was just gonna ask you, I'm like, you It was her have to look **[1:16:57] Tommy Vietor:** or Robert. **[1:16:57] Jon Favreau:** on your face like Pundit farted, and sure **[1:16:59] Jon Lovett:** it was. It was Pundit. enough, Tommy Blame the dog. It probably was her. She's, she's, she's, she's doing that a lot. **[1:17:05] Jon Favreau:** w. What is an outcome, uh, anywhere on the map, or the whole outcome, uh, that would change something you believed about politics heading into the election? **[1:17:16] Tommy Vietor:** Full sweep would show the the fever is broken completely, **[1:17:21] Jon Favreau:** Ooh, we got a fe- we got a broken Texas, Iowa, Kansas, fever. **[1:17:23] Tommy Vietor:** South Carolina, Mississippi, for God's sake, new paradigm. Trump is over. **[1:17:28] Jon Lovett:** Yeah, I'd. Bye-bye. I would say that there's been this debate about, uh, uh, Michigan and Abdul's performance in Michigan. And I think there's been these kind of very kind of like polar, uh uh, questions about, uh, will he overperform or or underperform? More center-left candidates and who would be responsible if that were the case, right? There's a lot of like, there's a lot of people like pre-score settling on this already, which I find very annoying. It's like, Hey guys, this, do you think we're not gonna have time for score settling after the election? **[1:17:54] Jon Lovett:** That's all that we'll have time to do. That's what cricket comes about. Uh, but I do think that if if Abdul runs close to Jocelyn Benson, uh, doesn't have to get right up next to Jocelyn Benson, but doesn't kind of perform, I think, uh, uh, far under in the way that I think a lot of more center figures are predicting. I think that would tell you a lot about, um, about the the left-center-left dynamics going into the presidential. **[1:18:21] Jon Lovett:** And and I, I would definitely take that. I'm, I don't know. I would say that I'm like, learning so much from that, but that would be a really important data point for understanding what comes next. **[1:18:28] Jon Favreau:** I think if Democrats have a bad night, um, it would change my view about, uh, people voting with their pocketbooks. Like, I can't remember an election where people have been like, **[1:18:39] Tommy Vietor:** economic interests. Yeah, I Yeah, **[1:18:41] Jon Favreau:** mean, it's it's look. That has obviously been, uh, disconnected from a a lot of, you know, polarization has helped disconnect that from people's voting habits for quite a while. But this is a situation specifically where, uh, it's not just unemployment rates, it's inflation that has hit everyone, plus the tariff, plus the gas price, like all of it. And if that does not do it, then that's gonna be a quite a signal. Um, if Democrats have a great night, I think it's also gonna change my view, which is also it's started to shift a little bit about how important money is in politics. **[1:19:11] Jon Favreau:** Because they have spent more money than God. And if the 200 million plus that they spent in just Texas alone doesn't do it, then it's gonna, I think it's gonna tell us something about the value of, uh, spending a lot of money. **[1:19:23] Tommy Vietor:** well, the the next question on the outline. Apologies for jumping ahead Do it, let's is what happens **[1:19:28] Jon Favreau:** we're there. **[1:19:28] Tommy Vietor:** if results are worse? What's the cause? And my answer is we're polarization. It's just a a depressing sign that, especially lower term, midterm, like lower turnout, midterms are about the team you're on more than anything else. And then the money. Because if if if Elon Musk can spend half a b in half $1 billion in these races, uh, in the crypto industry can spend $200 million in these races. If that money can get Ken Paxton over the finish line, the most odious human being in the worst environment imaginable. **[1:19:56] Tommy Vietor:** It's a reminder that elections can be bought, and we're in like a very terrible post Citizens United new paradigm here. **[1:20:04] Jon Favreau:** Yeah, what about you, Louis? If we, if, if we wake up to everyone wakes up tomorrow morning, the results are worse than we expected. What happened? **[1:20:12] Jon Lovett:** So, first of all, it would Fewer people voted for mean, yeah, that Democrats. You can't would be very use that one, sh- Yeah, no, **[1:20:15] Jon Favreau:** you can't use that one. **[1:20:15] Jon Lovett:** I did so. First of all, there would be a polling error, a really big polling error, which which once again tell you something about the electorate. And I I think one thing that that would mean is that the midterm electorate actually did look more like a presidential than we realized. And it tells you something, not just about polarization, but just for how people are engaging in politics. Cause it just would mean a lot of people, they're not, they're not responding to pollsters, they're not showing up in a lot of the data. **[1:20:41] Jon Lovett:** But they were just ready to vote and that they're gonna vote every two years, not just every four years. And we do have a huge low engagement population of people voting. And then I do think it would just have to be a lot of soul searching, not just about whether economic issues drive people, but it would be a real like. I I think, like, maybe as much as, uh, more than twenty four, which had, I think, uh, uh, uh, specific kind of endogenous explanations would require a lot of soul searching about the failure of Democrats to be able to persuade people in an environment like this, right? **[1:21:13] Jon Favreau:** Yeah, here's one. I think that's a little simpler and maybe more understandable for Democrats. Like, so let's say the generic ballot polling is is correct, right? Nationally, and the whole country moves to the left, it's it's plus nine, right? and the whole country moves left. That still means that, just based on fundamentals, uh, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Texas are still R plus. Uh, I think Nate has it point three to two, just on to plus two on the simple fundamentals. **[1:21:43] Jon Favreau:** So a huge like. The generic ballot polling was correct nationally, the whole country moved left, we win the House. But those states are still a little more Republican, and the Democratic candidate could not quite overcome that generic ballot. So that means, and and that that says something too, that's tough, because it's like these are more moderate candidates in those states. They have basically done everything that all the smart people have said that you do to win in a red state, and they just couldn't get there. **[1:22:11] Jon Favreau:** Um, and then Cook had an interesting in in Amy Walter's final um analysis piece. She's she, she put this in perspective. She's like, Democrats have to flip at least two seats that Donald Trump carried by double digits. Cook has five Republican-held Senate seats in the toss-up column that Trump carried by more than ten points, which is wild. No election in at least the last sixteen years has seen the party in the White House lose more than one Senate seat that the president had carried by double digits. **[1:22:40] Jon Favreau:** So it like, what we are it? It is kind of like a both side. Like, if Democrats do great and win the Senate, it's like historic, right? If they lose, though, it will be because that just it rarely happens that the party out of power, or that the president's party loses a Senate seat that they that he won by more than t more than, uh, double digits. **[1:23:00] Jon Lovett:** yes, and that is certainly what would be the explanation, except go one step below that. Donald Trump is an extraordinary president. Of course, And no, I know, you know that, but it's just like, Hey, like, how did normal? How did we allow as a party normal politics to prevail in an environment like that? And now, and by the way, I wouldn't just be blaming Democrats. I think there'd be a lot of of hand wringing about Democrats. **[1:23:21] Jon Lovett:** It's a societal problem that someone like Donald Trump is winning these states by ten digits after launching an insurrection, right? Like, there's a there's a real like, kind of a a a culture that has that has sort of allowed someone like Trump to rise. But we continue to struggle to make the case to people that he is an extraordinary threat and the people that enable him deserve to be held accountable. And that will continue to be the case when someone like JD Vance tries to run for president. **[1:23:45] Jon Lovett:** Uh, uh, uh, basically denying the version of Trump we all recognize is real. So, yeah, **[1:23:52] Jon Favreau:** yeah. And I think in the opposite scenario, where we wake up and everything's wonderful. And maybe Andy Andrews pulls it out in South Carolina or Scott Gomo in Mississippi, right? Um, then it's a whole bunch of Republicans who voted in twenty four stayed home. Some of them decided to vote Democrat, and a lot of these low propensity voters who either backed Trump in twenty four or didn't vote, uh, in twenty four, just came out in droves because of costs, war, ice in their communities, whatever it may be, that that that's the upside yeah, and scenario. **[1:24:22] Jon Lovett:** and I also think that has a big impact, potentially has a big impact on twenty eight, because that tells you, to Tommy's point, that the bottom really has fallen out and something big is changing. **[1:24:30] Jon Favreau:** Yeah, all right, that's our show for today. Uh, reminder to tune into the live stream with Alex on the PSA YouTube channel. Um, we will be back late, late tonight with our reaction to the results. Hopefully, we will still have this tone in our voices. Won't be a although we've been. Basket cases I don't have good memories of that in the past, **[1:24:52] Tommy Vietor:** don't like elections. **[1:24:53] Jon Favreau:** but we'll see. Uh, keep your eye on our YouTube for any updates after that. Go vote if you haven't already, bring your friends to vote, vote save America dot com if you need any help, and, uh, we'll see you on the other side. Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production. Our show is produced by Austin Fisher, Saul Rubin, McKenna Roberts and Michael Goldsmith, with Reed Churlin, Elijah Cohn and Adrian Hill. Our team includes Matt DeGroot, Ben Hefco, Jordan Cantor, Charlotte Landis, Kenny Moffett, Adam Lippert, Joseph Dutra, Desmond Taylor, Dan Farrell, David Tolls, Mia Kelman, Ryan Young and Naomi Single. **[1:25:19] Jon Favreau:** Our staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.