Trump Puts the Mid in Midterms

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I'm Jon Favreau.

I'm Dan Pfeiffer.

On today's show, we'll take you to Trump's rally in the newly minted swing state of South Carolina. To Atlanta, where Barack Obama closed out the campaign with John Ossoff, Keisha Lance Bottoms and a second helping of Cheesecake Factory content. We'll also talk about the situation with Democrats ballot stacking in Alaska, what the almost final polls and models are telling us, and hear some voicemails from our subscribers expressing the anxieties we're all feeling. Then on this last Friday pod before the midterms, we're gonna do what the consultants always say about their candidates and let Dan be Dan.

At least we have a at least we have a title for this episode.

And Dan, in our editorial meeting this morning, uh, you offered to quote totally nerd out. Are you feeling loose? Feeling limber?

We'll see. We'll see when we get there. I gotta warm up through the through all the Trump discourse.

okay, great, great. Uh, and we have a couple announcements before we get into it. Uh, on election night, Alex Wagner will be hosting a live stream of the results on the Pod Save America YouTube channel. It's gonna be Alex, a bunch of your favorite crooked hosts, including us, and a bunch of great guests. Uh, it's Tuesday, November third, election day, starting at nine p.m. Eastern, six p.m. Pacific. Uh, friends of the pod will get a chance to have their questions answered live on air.

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Um, and it's good cause we'll all be together and there's gonna be great conversations and, uh, you'll get to meet a bunch of friends. So, crooked. com, check it out, get your tickets now. Okay, as we head into the final weekend before election day, let's start with some mood music. In a classic of the genre that includes background interviews with 16 current and former Trump officials, the New York Times sees a grim White House and an angry president who has raged against bad stories and and and is increasingly cloistered with a small group of aides.

Like Natalie Harp, who apparently now works out of Trump's private dining room, uh, and Bill Pulte, whose role one Trump official described as court jester. Um, both Natalie and Pulte, um, have been feeding Trump a steady diet of fawning press coverage, memes, and AI slop. Which look,

Although why it's known as the President's Daily Briefing, I was gonna say, I guess.

and you know, to be honest, uh, the whole story a little hard to believe because, you know, the the deranged, declining Donald Trump portrayed by the Times. It just doesn't comport with what the rest of us are seeing out there on the campaign trail. For example, here's the president stumping for Darline Graham in South Carolina on Thursday.

They forced meat down his throat. Tranny Annie is a mutilizer. If you're black, or if you're Jewish, and if you vote for Abdul, you're crazy. Lindsay's looking down. He said. I'd love to be here, but just didn't work out. I don't even believe in polls. Donald Trump is at 42%. 42% wet you mean times two and add twenty. Boy, they are bad. They're sick people. Fake polls. If you're president, Republican or Democrat, for whatever reason, you don't win the midterms.

We have the biggest rallies ever in history, and you'll never I hope you enjoy it, cause you're never gonna see it again.

Now that's good news.

Oh, here's hoping.

Here's hoping. Do you think, um, you think the Graham campaign got what they needed out of that event? Uh, the president saying, Well, presidents always lose the midterms. Uh, Lindsey Graham's looking down but couldn't make it. Uh, ta- a lengthy diatribe about Abdul El Sayed, who's running in Michigan, not South Carolina.

Tell a lot of Talerico

There's a lot of Talerico.

talking to Texans.

Yeah, Talerico likes meat. That was the the beginning. Uh,

Did a full episode of Polar Coaster about the Witchwood polling scandal.

we didn't include it, but there was also, like, it was a lot of Ilhan Omar. There's J- there was basically everything except, uh, talk about Darline Graham and and South Carolina. That was, I don't know It appears what to say.

there was a teleprompter. Cause every once in a while, he would just look up and then sort of re in a monotone, read something about Darline Graham and then go back to the Trump show. I mean, it's it's truly it's like he's trying to lose the midterms. Or, I mean, I guess maybe the way to put it is he just wants to do his thing without any regard to anyone else, which is should not be surprising to anyone.

But there's nothing er there that would be seen as helpful to the candidate he's trying to help.

I think in his mind, um, he has already lost the midterms. I think he believes that about President, obviously, the midterms. Uh, he probably thinks that, you know, maybe Republicans can keep the Senate. Maybe it won't be as bad as the polls suggest, but he kinda knows that, like, it's not gonna go great. Like, I I, I'm sure he thinks the House is gone, right? And so at that point, he's just having fun. He's gonna say what's on his mind and and enjoy these rallies, cause they're his, they might be his last rallies.

they're definitely not his last rallies. There's no way he will give this up. We will be watching those rally, we'll be watching videos of these rallies the rest of our lives and just commenting on them. Even if Well, it's AI,

I was like, Well, that's true, but I was gonna say, like, I guess he'll he'll campaign for the um, he'll campaign a lot for the twenty eighth nominee, uh, for the Republicans. But, like, it's it can't be a situation, uh, like it was in Mississippi with Cindy Hyde Smith, where the Republican nominee comes on stage for two minutes, leaves, and then Donald Trump just does the whole rally in twenty eight, right? And right, well, uh,

I mean, we have the we'll have some gubernatorial elections in twenty seven, 2027 that he can participate in. So, but I think the bigger point here is that if Trump really wanted to win the midterms, he would shut the fuck up and stay in the White House. The best thing for Republicans would allow these to be a race between a Republican and Democrat, like Abdul versus Mike Rogers, Sherrod Brown versus John Hustead, Annie Andrews versus Darline Graham.

Well, that may be not the best example of Darline Graham. S but just there's some cases where you can make it about individual Democratic candidates in red states. But Trump cannot cede the stage. So he would rather lose the midterms out in public than win them in hiding in the White House and have there be some narrative that he couldn't, you know, that they won because he wa- he wasn't out there campaigning or is hiding or whatever else.

yeah, speaking of, um, hiding in the White House, uh, I don't know if you had any other favorite, uh, bits from that time piece. Um, to your point that you just made, I did like in the piece, it it says that Republican advisors and outside groups have warned the White House that Trump's appearances could hurt candidates in close races. His team has largely discounted that concern.

yes, I'm sure they have. Yes,

Yeah, we can see, and is, uh, and is concentrating on turning out Republicans in red states.

Even I'll get to the piece in a second, but even if you wanted to say yes, like, maybe Trump can be helpful in Mississippi, in South Carolina. These are Trump plus 18 states, plus more than that in some cases. But Trump going to Michigan is bananas. It's just a truly bananas choice, right? Ohio even, which even though it's a state he won by double digits, certainly not helpful, right? But to the piece, all right. It offends me to my latent political strategist soul that they're doing something this stupid down the stretch.

Like it just it b and and then they're not enough people are talking about how stupid it is. Like it's so obviously stupid that everyone's so, like, knocked upside the head with Trump always defies the expectations. It's it's idiotic. Everyone knows it's idiotic. No one in the Republican Party will say it. The fact that Mike Rogers spent all this time running ads saying that he was against the kind of sort of against the tariffs, kind of said, Look at the war, and then he has to stand next to Trump at a rally.

Like, that's stupid. In the piece, and I'm surprised I assume this is also your favorite part, where it says that Trump has been calling allies to regale himself about how long his crowds were, how big his crowds were. But to mention that JD Vance is not getting very big crowds. you know me, that's Yeah, yes, it. That's, that's yeah,

right top of my list. It's just so funny. This, I mean, the twenty eight campaign, like, I'm not looking forward to our primary.

yes, their primary is gonna be amazing.

Very much looking forward to that to watching that just the shit show unfold.

the human psychodrama is Trump tortures JD Vance the whole time. It's so good.

ugh, it's it's like the saving grace for the whole year. Um, uh, I also like that that Bill Pulte, the the court jester, as he's known, um, his thing is his thing is memes, apparently, and he he made a poster of John Houston. Uh,

Was it of John Huston's ass? That wasn't clear.

it doesn't. Yeah, it did not specify in the in the in the New York Times, uh, cause God is a sort of respected institution but the New that

York Times did say they made a poster of John Houston whose ass Donald Trump whose physique, had picked. whose physique Physique. Yes, yes, Trump has repeatedly yes. I'm reading between the lines. has repeatedly Yes,

praised. Um, and then also, as I think Tommy guessed this on Tuesday's pod, but we did find out that Trump dictated the 1,300 word Bill Maher tirade to Natalie after watching Bill Maher's monologue. So, and now we know why Nat Natalie, you know, she had one of the desks outside the Oval Office, um, but he's moved her into the Oval Office, or basically to the private dining room off the Oval Office. Um, and typical of Trump, don't necessarily think there's anything untoward going on there.

The reason she's there is so when he can watch the TV, he can just yell to her in the dining room and tell her to start doing some truths and doing some posting. Which

well, it'd be really annoying to call her by the time she gets there, the segment's over. She's gotta be in the moment she's gotta with him. be right there. She's Yeah,

gotta be just typing that shit out. Um, so certainly the people who came to see Trump in South Carolina were excited to be there, uh, minus the several protesters who interrupted the event. That seems to be happening, uh,

a lot.

a lot more these days.

I don't. I have almost no recollection of it happening for years now, and it happens everywhere we go.

Yeah, it's interesting. Uh, it could be, it could be a sign or not. Um, but then there was this guy, uh, who showed up at the rally.

Tom, why are you here this morning?

Well, in the late seventies, I was a little too young to get involved and, uh, go to South America for the Jonestown Massacre. But this is as close as I'll ever get, so that's why I'm here.

Wait, the Jonestown Massacre, that's right. See, it's nothing Like like

seeing a cult right up front, man.

all right. So maybe maybe this is not a Trump supporter.

Fucking hero. Uh, I did like that it took the Fox News reporter just an extra beat to get it. He was like, Jonestown Massacre didn't get it then. And then the guy was like, Yeah, cult up close, and he's like, Oh, oh, I get it. You're not a real Trump supporter.

I think the fastest way to the Democratic nomination is to promise that guy the presidential medal of freedom if elected president.

I mean, that guy might end up on the ballot.

Oh, you know what? If this were 2017, he would be on the he would he would run right now.

You know, if we were 2017, we would have figured we gotta get him on the show. That's, I mean, How do we we sh- how do we not have that guy? Like, I just probably probably because he's at the rally.

probably probably because he's on the bulwark right now.

Don't fuck it, it's gonna happen. Tim's gonna I know have Tim's gonna I mean, be, we're Dan's serious. Tim gonna wake Walz keeps up tomorrow, Tim's gonna be talking to this he may be guy.

doing it right now as we speak. Fuck.

I'm I'm sending some slacks while I'm in this recording.

just pause the podcast, let's send some notes.

Okay, uh, I don't wanna read too much into one man's, uh, successful infiltration of a Trump rally. Uh, but we did get a Times Sienna poll of South Carolina on Wednesday, which was a bit of a surprise, partly because we were you and I have been hoping for Times Sienna polls all week. Maybe by the time you're listening to this on Friday, there will have been another batch of Times Sienna polls, uh, that we'll have missed because they came out on Friday.

But on Wednesday, we got South Carolina, Florida, and, uh, Minnesota. Uh, but the South Carolina one was pretty amazing because it has the race in a dead heat with Annie Andrews and Darline Graham at forty eight each. Uh, Silver Bulletins polling average, uh, still has Darline Graham up one and a half points. I think Nate's model Flipper, uh, still has, like, the Repu- the pro the projection is three points for Graham. Um, but good poll, New York Times poll forty eight forty eight.

Is this one as close as it seems? What do you think? You wrote a message box on this.

I do. I think it it, by all accounts, it seems to be incredibly close. I think this poll is a validation of the idea that Annie Andrews can very much win this race. It's not just that it's tied, cause the poll the race has been tied or within a point or two for a couple months now. But previously, the polls were, like, forty four, forty three, forty five, forty four, and forty four percent is what Jamie Harrison got in 2020 in that senate race.

So the New York Times poll shows that Annie Andrews can grow her vote share to the point where she has a real shot of winning. You look at the internals, people do not like Darline Graham. She has a there is a negative, um, she has a net negative favorability rating. Uh, a plurality of South Carolinians think she is not, she does not have the experience to be an effective senator. People like Annie Andrews, although she he her name ID is still a little bit low, which is a little bit shocking this far into the race.

But 54% of South Carolinians think she has the experience to be an effective senator. A the plurality think that she is not, uh, too far to the right or too far to the left, which is a huge thing there. Um, on the issues, people, the people of South Carolina think, trust her more to handle all the major issues except immigration. All very positive. And the thing is forty eight, forty eight. There are two third-party candidates on the ballot in this election.

They did not show up in this poll. They both they both came in at, um, less than 1% are they are they combined.

also named Darline Graham?

They're there, we'll get to there. Yes, they Darlene, Darlene, with a Y, Graham, um, and they have shown up in other polls, though, um, so we'll see. And I, I don't know whether the times asked them by name or asked just, are you voting for another candidate? So it's like, I think it, like, is it it? There's a Trump's a state Trump won by eighteen points. This is a very hard state, but listening to the excellent podcast Still Counting, and which they made the point, and I think Nate made this point, that if South Carolina is a state with a gigantic black population, there's evidence of early voting and voter registration data that turnout could be through the roof amongst

black voters. We saw this in the in the primaries in some states, especially in the South. That if you had presidential year turnout among black voters and midterm level turnout among everyone else, which is white voters, the state would shift nine points to the left. hm. And So you it still doesn't, can,

which still doesn't quite get you there.

but you need independence, and, uh, in this poll, Annie Andrews is crushing with independence. And then, interestingly enough, also in the Spartanburg Greenville area, which is where Ralph Norman's from. Um, she's underperforming significantly there. And you know, there is now a, uh, sort of undercover write-in Ralph Norman campaign happening that Ralph Norman has not, um, disavowed per se. And he will not be campaigning with her, and he's not happy with Darline Graham or Donald Trump for the situation we're in.

yeah, I mean, I I think everyone should just the fact that it is tied in this poll and the fact that this we're even talking about this at all when Donald Trump won the state by eighteen is crazy. And also evidence of, like, just how far the country has shifted or the electorate has shifted. yeah. And Um, uh,

how bad a candidate Darline Graham is?

and how bad a candidate Darline Graham is as well. You know, some people are saying, well, the everyone got really excited about Jamie Harrison in 2020, and, you know, the polls showed that he was close, and then he lost by ten to Lindsey Graham. But, like someone pointed out, the Times Sienna final poll in 2020 did have, um, it had Graham, uh, ahead of Harrison by six, you know, he ended up winning by ten.

But so, like, there was no tied poll from from Times Sienna in 2020, and that was a year where all the polling was, uh, off and and overestimated Democrats

yeah, and the Times polling too, and and the Times polling the time polling too.

too. So that and and, you know, it's a presidential year, so it's hard to compare both, but you're right. Like, if you get if, if, if everything has to go right for Annie Andrews to win, right? Which is incredibly high black turnout, uh, midterm white turnout, some depressed turnout among Republicans, um, crushing with independents, and, you know, some Republicans crossing over to vote for Annie Andrews.

Yeah, it's, uh, I mean, like I said, it's very, very hard. But it's also worth noting that Trump is in South Carolina, was in South Carolina today. Republicans are spending a ton of money in South Carolina. They believe it's a real race, too. This is not just us huffing hopium somewhere.

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Because so it has Peggy Flanagan up fourteen points, um, largest lead any poll has shown for her. There's

by far. by far, there's Yeah,

been some polls that had it quite close and made some people nervous. And, you know, you see it up fourteen points, you see the top line, I was like, great. And then, you know, we all sent this around to each other. Nate Cohn wrote up his analysis of the polls, and, uh, he said, you know, if if it turns out that the polls have underestimated Republican strength, we may look back and say that this Minnesota poll was a canary in the coal mine.

And the reason he said that is because Minnesota is apparently the only state where, um, you don't have party registration in the voter file. And so usually you can solve for, uh, the problem of not getting enough Republicans with the, uh, party registration data. Um, and because you couldn't in Minnesota, like, maybe this is an unvarnished look at what happens when you just can't get enough Republicans in your sample. Um, I didn't totally follow why that should be a canary in the coal mine.

Um, but what do you think?

yeah, I it's I'm not saying Nate's wrong, cause Nate's quite smart, but I s they did self identification in the poll, obviously, cause they say in the poll how many Republicans and Democrats there are, and then they weighted it to that. The which is how most polls the New York Times is a rare media poll that goes off the voter file. They're one of the few media organizations that has the resources to conduct a poll that way.

That's how every campaign does their poll. It could very well be this poll is an outlier. It's clearly an outlier. The one thing I would say, though, is that if you were just to say, look at the political environment and the partisan lean of the state, fourteen points is almost exactly what the margin should be. If this is a plus ten environment, Minnesota's a state that was plus about plus four for Kamala Harris in 2024.

You're looking at a fourteen point race. Now that doesn't take into account and the New the

York Times' own own national poll, it has a a a ten and a half point lead, right? So,

that's right.

like ten and a half plus four points, which is what Connell Harris was, which it was to the left of the nation by in 2024. That, yeah, you're right, that does it.

so it like there's a word where shit adds up, and it's exactly right. We just don't know.

We'll see, we'll see. Um, so while we didn't get any fresh Times Sienna Senate polls on Thursday, we did get a new round of CNN polls, uh, showing Democrats ahead by anywhere from four to seven points in Michigan, Texas, Maine, and Kansas. Uh, as of this recording, Flipper Nate's model has the chance of Democrats flipping the House at 95%, uh, and the Senate is around 80%. I think it's seventy nine or something, but it's like, right there.

Uh, and if you're wondering what the White House political team is seeing, Trump just canceled his in-person rally in Kansas this weekend, and he's replacing it with a series of tell rallies, including one on election eve for the Republican Senate candidate in Louisiana. Um, now Trump was asked by a reporter, uh, why he canceled the Kansas rally, and he flipped out, uh, very much matching the Times piece, uh, called the reporter fat and out of shape, um, which is quite something to say for him.

Um, and uh, and then said he's canceled the rally because, uh, Roger Marshall's doing so well.

which is what everyone is saying. Everyone is saying that.

Um, anyway, Louisiana. So, uh, go ahead, Dan, unburden yourself. Where are we with four days to go? What how how are you feeling? Look at the whole map, what are you thinking?

Yeah, so I think the way to think about is you take the house. If you just look at the seats that the Republicans have already conceded, it suggests they've basically conceded the majority and are now just trying to put up firewalls to stop Democrats from winning in huge and deeply in hugely Republican districts and deep in Trump country. It is clear that the race has been actually, like, remarkably steady for two months, but the trend has been growing momentum for Democrats and expansion of the map.

Just today, Democrats put money into North Carolina nine, which is a district that Trump won by double digits. It's also the home district of Richard Hudson, who also happens to be the head of the NRCC, the Republican House campaign arm. So they're going after him. You also see Democrats making moves in New York twenty one, which Trump won by twenty one points, which was at least a phony soul district. Um, so Democrat like the map is moving in Democrats direction.

I think on the Senate, where I would put this is all of the key races, the ones we care the most about, are within the margin of error. Where

And it's still that, still that, still that way,

yes, and that is that has been that way. Democrats have had a pretty steady lead in the polling averages in all of those states. That lead has not really grown in any way, shape or form over the last couple weeks. It stayed the same,

but it hasn't tightened.

but it hasn't tightened. And you have you have to dig really deep to find any polls that show Republicans leading in any of the main races. But we started this cycle with this idea that somehow Democrats could possibly win two seats out of four deeply red states Ohio, Iowa, Texas, Alaska, they could get the majority. What has changed in the last month is now we don't have to win 50% of those races because you also have as possibly winnable races South Carolina, Kansas, Mississippi, and Nebraska.

So the map is wider for Democrats, which just gives us more shots on goal, which is incredibly important.

Yeah, if you sort of, uh, look at all the polling in the last couple weeks, I would say that in Michigan, uh, at least the polling there shows Abdul sort of creeping up. Yeah, it's hard, Um,

it's hard to say. There's there's been so many different polls of middling quality, um, that ha- some of them have had Abdul with bigger leads than we've seen anywhere. The CNN poll, which is a high quality poll, had that today, seven points. But then the Glenn a lot of other bad Garrett poll, polls have had it at two points, you know?

well, the Glenn Garrett poll, the CNN poll, the um, there was another Detroit News poll that was not that that was also the same. So the that one's going good. Haven't been a lo- hasn't been a lot of polling out of Maine. Um, still still wondered about that. Um, the Texas polls have just been, like, really steady. Like, how I I don't, I can't. I've lost kind of how many polls showed James Tellerico with, like, a two point lead in Texas.

yeah, yeah. And Um,

the CNN poll had him up a little bit more today.

yeah, so I don't know. And then same thing with Ohio, has been steady at two or three, but you're right, it's all it's all within the margin of error. But do you think these things break? Is it more likely that they all break one way, or do you think that in a midterm like this, you really could see, you know, one state going one way for certain reasons and another going another way? Even though they were both, like, two point races in the polling up till now.

i in a presidential election, the states are highly correlated because it's the same two candidates in every case. That is not as that the states are not as correlated in midterms. And you do have some geographic differences and some demographic differences among the electorate that does matter. Like, the question in Texas is, is the Hispanic swing what we think it is, right? And if it is what we think it is, then James Lidecker will win. If it is not, that doesn't tell you anything about what's likely to happen in Ohio, Alaska, or Iowa, right?

South Carolina and Mississippi, very, it, Ohio, to a certain extent, very dependent on high black turnout, right? That tells you a little bit less about Iowa and Alaska.

obviously, we don't like to, uh, dig into the early vote, uh, which has disappointed us before reading tea leaves from the early vote. Partly because you don't know the how many people are gonna turn out, you're missing the denominator, uh, because a bunch of people vote on election day. But, um, I I feel like, have have, you know, I still look at the early vote in different

Yes, of course. places, and some places Yeah,

it's it's it's more helpful and more useful than others. Um, it doesn't seem like there's anything alarming in the early vote. Like, I feel like that it you you can't look at it and say, like, Oh, great news, we're doing great here, people are trying. But like, it doesn't, it doesn't seem like anything in the early vote is telling us that the polling is way off so far.

yes, we just don't, we just don't know enough. And the one of the reasons why the early vote has been wrong before is because either it's a party registration state where you know whether it's Democrats or Republicans, or you're making assessments based on demographics as to whether this person's likely to vote for a Republican or a Democrat. And in 2020, people were very off because who we thought were Democrats was, you know, we were looking at 2016 level Latino numbers.

And it turns out not what to get, not what we had at all, cause there was a shift and then a bigger shift in 2024. Same thing in 2024. You're like, oh, look at all these young people. It turned out that wasn't as good for Democrats as we as it would have been in a different election year. So we d we just don't know, but there is, you know, every once in a while, there's like this giant warning sign in one state, like it's often Nevada, where we always get some of the best data.

There's nothing there that is said there's a huge No, I, in fact, challenge there.

I was just gonna raise this. Like, in Nevada, there's the, uh, governor's race, uh, which is the most competitive race. I think, like the three Democrats, um, that are running in those three districts, uh, are doing well. Three of the four districts Democrats are doing really well. In fact, like, I think the Republicans have sort of stopped spending in in most of them, um, but the governor's race is close. Uh, Joel Lombardo and is the Republican, and Erin Ford is the Democrat.

She's been interviewed here on Pod Save America, and, um, I've been reading Ralston's blog, John Ralston's blog. And the and again, the reason that you look at the early vote in Nevada is because everyone gets mailed a ballot, so you know the whole universe of voters, uh, and so you can sort of do the calculations a bit easier. And I mean, if you just look at a graph of what was happening in 2024, um, in which where, like, things were getting worse and worse for Democrats as the days went on, and then got a little better at the end, but still not much.

And what's happening now, which is just like Democrats are just building this huge lead in ballots, um, that is just getting bigger and bigger and bigger every day. It it looks it looks quite good there, but we'll see. Don't wanna don't wanna get too excited, but Nevada is looking pretty good. Now, what does that what does that mean for the rest of the country, for all these other races? Again, it's hard to tell, right? Because it's a very specific population in Nevada.

It's heavily Latino working class, you've got a governor's race there, it's not a senate race. So, you know, a bunch of different things, uh, could be unique there, but so far so good. Pod Save America is brought to you by Bombas. Cozy season is upon us. That means curling up on crisp mornings and soft layers. Bombas makes your comfiest fall staples so you can make the most of arguably the best season of the year. Bombas new suede moccasins are perfect for fall with cushy soles, a shearing lining, and water resistant suede.

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I heard the president was not happy when, uh, I joked over the weekend that he's got the White House looking like Saddam Hussein opened a cheesecake factory. I lived at Chuck E Cheese and California Pizza Kitchen and the Cheesecake Factory. That was my jam for about a decade. Of course, the real problem is prices have gotten so high a lot of folks can barely afford to go out to eat. The president wasn't even mad about the Saddam Hussein comparison, but he was very upset about the Cheesecake Factory comments.

They mobilized a whole of government response to that joke. The White House even called the Secretary of the Treasury. They told him he should hold a press conference in front of the Cheesecake Factory and and and the Treasury Secretary. He happens to be a former hedge fund manager worth half $1 billion. And he was out there in front of the Cheesecake Factory, explaining how he ordered the delicious French dip cheeseburgers instead of the egg rolls.

I inherited this major financial crisis. I never called my Treasury Secretary. Tim Geithner said, Man, you gotta go to Harvard. This is what I mean when I say these are not serious people. They don't have solutions to actual problems, so they'd rather have the media and you talking about the Cheesecake Factory. That's the game they've been playing for the last two years. Just keep throwing distractions out there and hope that you won't notice that your bills are higher and your life is tougher.

Uh, you think he was having fun there, Dan?

yes, just just a little bit, just a little bit.

Well, I guess that's that. I guess, uh, I don't know if Republican do they want any more. Uh, you wanna go another round? Let's do it.

I'm I'm sure some of them do.

Sure, we can schedule another rally for you if you want yeah, Trump didn't to.

really bring it up today, right?

No, I don't think anyone's bringing it up anymore. I think that's about that. I think that's about it.

so good.

Um, uh, yeah, he was very, uh, I I I. I have heard from our friends that he was very excited to do that. Yes, yes, the uh, And in fact, and the in fact, the response and the thing about Besant, like that was, that was right from him. The best. He had. He had clearly caught a clip of Scott Bessent walking out of the Cheesecake Factory and thought that was the both funniest and craziest shit he had ever seen.

which is so stupid, so much fun.

Um, not to be too credulous here, but what do you think of the way he's trying to tie Cheesecake Gate into a larger argument about Donald Trump?

I would just say that, um, I do, as as you are, as we all are. Um, we're very prideful of the old boss. We very, uh, we always want people like it makes us feel good when people ad admire him and say nice things about him. And I do love this time of year, every year, when Obama comes out, does a couple rallies and everyone is just they swoon over it. Like, I find that very enjoyable, cause it is reminder that he is remains the best communicator in American politics for his generation and maybe some generations to come.

So good. And the reason why you see that in this case is like, this is how you do modern communications, which is impressive for a guy who's been out of office for a long time now. Is you find the thing that is viral, the thing that people are paying attention to, the peop- people are talking about, and then you attach a real argument to it. You ta- you s you you. It's attention hijacking, basically. And so he makes this joke, which is just kind of a throwaway joke in a rally that was quite funny.

The right wing reacts to it, ha- you know, Trump takes the bait, they do it, and then he Obama sees his opportunity to punch back. But do punch back in a way that actually advances the argument, which is the difference between Trump and Obama, or Trump and the and Obama and the right wing here, which is they're. They have no argument about the Cheesecake Factory. It's just they keep crying like they're. Even if you could sell I people on the idea that Barack Obama's elitist for it, how is that helping you win an election?

It's not helping you beat Sherrod Brown or Annie Andrews or Josh Tarek. It's just it's it's idiotic grievance politics. Obama, he could just get into a pissing match with Trump, which he would he enjoys doing here. But then he takes it one step further to make it turn into a case for Democrats and a case against Republicans.

Yeah, I mean, look, the most difficult part of responding to that is the whole Cheesecake Factory fiasco is so fucking nuts on so many different levels. It's like the elitist thing is crazy, but also the like. Yes, we're making fun of Trump's interior design aesthetic because all he does is just renovate the White House in his elder years here, as he is sundowning while at war in Iran. And he's just running around the White. And then the way that Trump responds to all of it is by going down to Mississippi, first of all, Mississippi, where he feels the need to campaign.

And talking to a crowd about the the fine artisans they're using in the White House and how he used exterior plaster and

skim coating, so much skim skim co- talking about coating. skim coating. And then, Yes,

like, literally right after Obama delivered the riff we just heard, Trump spent several hours truthing photos of the government owned golf course, uh, East Potomac, that he's been trying to renovate over over a judge's orders. Cause he cut down a bunch of fucking trees and in the truth claimed that the problems with the driving range netting caused a White House staffer to be, quote, sadly hit violently in the chest. So it's like, what do you expect?

And all these people being like, Oh, Obama's like Donald Trump is out there talking about his fucking golf course, how he's gonna renovate that, and then Obama talks about it's it. The best part of it is, like, Obama does the Cheesecake Factory joke. Everyone's like, all right, this is our opportunity to turn the attention away from Donald Trump and his corruption and the fact that he's out of touch and the fact that everyone's pissed. And we're gonna make, we're gonna do this fake fucking, uh, thing about Obama being elitist.

Great. And then Trump's like, Uh, nope, I'm not playing that game, I'm not doing the play. Instead, I'm actually hurt by the joke because I love my home renovations loves and I, and I think my does my sense of design is top notch, and so I'm gonna talk about it even more.

It's really the only thing that he cares about.

That's it. It he w- I. He was genuinely hurt by Obama's joke because he takes great pride in all of the shit he's doing at taxpayer expense and the expense of focusing on the problems that most people care about and have.

yeah, it's just he just cannot help himself.

He can't help it.

I mean, it's really, it's a gift. I mean, imagine like this would be a hard political environment for anyone, but he insists on making it worse every day. He's like, what is the critique of me? And how can I double and triple down on making it effective?

I also, I would love some New York Times, Wall Street Journal, whoever reporting on the backstory of how Besant got to the Cheesecake Factory, like, what were the conversations?

How did it end up being him?

How is it of all the people, of all the people, you well, it couldn't are?

be. It couldn't be RFK Jr. You were, So he probably saw it less.

you were, you were trying to portray the ex-president as elitist for a jab about the Cheesecake Factory. So you send Scott Bessent to the Cheesecake Factory to talk about his French dip.

it's like, how did Sean Duffy not get that task? Anyone I Yeah,

d I, I don't Pete Hegseth, for God's sake, I don't anyone. to JD Vance, JD Vance

they. He probably volunteered and they told him no. They're like, you can't pull this off, sir.

it. It is goes back to, like, the trying to lose the midterms. Sending Scott Bessent is something you would do if you were trying to lose the midterms.

Yes, yes, I remember. I think David Axelrod said this to you when you were talking to him. Which is, if he were trying to lose the midterms, what would we be doing differently, right? If he wasn't trying to lose the midterms, what would he be doing differently? I don't Great question.

know, I don't know. All right, there's one new message, uh, Trump is pushing in the final stretch about Democrats, uh, that may or may not stick. Uh, let's listen.

Mary Peltola should resign from the race. I think she should be prosecuted criminally for what she did. Whoa, okay,

Whoa, what does she do, John?

well, for those just tuning in, uh, that's him. Responding to the Times report on Wednesday that Peltola's team worked with the Democratic Senate campaign committee last summer to find other people named Dan Sullivan to get into the race and draw votes away from the incumbent with the same name, Senator Dan Sullivan. They succeeded, of course, uh, and as we've discussed, uh, the DOJ has filed a lawsuit to try to stop Alaska from certifying a Peltola win if it appears to be the result of the other Sullivan's presence on the ballot.

On Thursday morning, the Republican governor of Alaska ordered an investigation into the effort, even though an Alaska court already ruled that other Dan Sullivan could be on the ballot. It's unclear what, if any, laws could have been broken, and, uh, Republicans worked to help spoilers all the time, uh, including in Alaska during the cycles. Primary. Um, so question that I hear a lot of people asking, and it's a good one, why would Democrats do this in the first place, especially in a state where you have a ranked choice between four names anyway?

Um, like, it doesn't seem like it would have the maximum effect because if you, you could just rank both Sullivans if you were confused somehow. Um, let's start there, and then we can talk about I can't the

really figure out why this was worth that level of effort.

same. That was, that was sort of my Now, if first reaction.

someone just looked at the first Dan Sullivan they saw, and it was the other, the other Dan Sullivan, not the Senator Dan Sullivan. And then put their second choice, who was not named Dan Sullivan, second, then that would solve the problem. But if s if someone got in there and they were, like, legitimately confused about which Dan Sullivan they were supporting, and they just put them one and two, then that that per then Dan Sullivan's center would get that vote in the second round of ranked choice voting.

So it seems a little like overcomplicating the simple. Now Alaska has the Alaska is challenging because it's a ranked choice vote and they have a four person primary. The it ends with the four top people being on the ballot. And so they went, they they this was smart. They went to great efforts to ensure there was no Democrat, other Democrat on the ballot. And like, ultimately, the larger math here is you can't in a ranked choice vote, and you can't lower the win number below fifty, because that's the whole point of ranked choice voting is you've gotta get to fifty in multiple areas.

But, you know, I think they thought that if you won, if you had multiple Republicans, multiple Dan Sullivans, you might get to the second ballot with Mary Peltola winning.

right, so, you know, there's been a sort of an outcry, even not not just from the right, but, you know, people who are more center left, moderate. Some Democrats are just like, you know, we should should condemn this, this was wrong. And I like, so Alaska Public Media went and interviewed a bunch of voters, uh, about this, and uh, voters who were like either Republicans were voting for Peltola or independents, or, you know, so not like Mary Peltola fans necessarily.

But, um, so one voter who is a an unregistered, like no party voter, um, uh, who I think is gonna go for Peltola, said, It does give, I think, as some of the kids would describe it, icky vibes. But at the same time, I think voters are intelligent and can figure out how to rank and can figure out which Dan Sullivan is their person. And I think that's where I land on the whole thing, like icky, but also like I.

If if it's within the law, which it sounds like it It is not is, illegal. it's not illegal,

Ballot stacking is not illegal.

ballot, ballot stacking's not illegal. And is it like a campaign dirty trick, like the kind that Republicans do all the time? Yeah, but it's like, if we wanna make it illegal, we should make it illegal. If we don't, if we think it's wrong, it wrong enough that it shouldn't be allowed, then there should be laws against it.

right, there are. There are several questions here. There is one, is it illegal? It is not two, is it unprecedented? It's absolutely unprecedented. Campaigns do this all the time. In fact, you may remember from that dark period of time known as 2020 that, uh, allies of Trump recruited Kanye West to run for president in the hope that it would siphon Black voters away from Joe Biden. There are efforts underway to on both sides to promote third party candidates in the races where they think that's gonna help them.

If there's a socialist on the ballot, they're gonna try to promote that socialist. The Republicans in the Trump campaign did this with Jill Stein in 2016. Like, we have s like, this is not, And they spend you know,

money on this, they like yes, they spent to really

a lot of money. promote these candidates, Yes, you normally need, like, a pass through separate super pac, like it's it is, it is legal, but sketchy, as basically all campaign finances these days. Um, and then this question is, was this advisable? No, you know, it's probably not as beneficial. If there were two Dan Sullivans or there was no ranked choice voting, that would be more impactful than this, but it probably helps on the margins. And what does it, you know?

Certainly looks to be a very hard but winnable race. And then there's a question of now that this has been revealed, is it going to hurt Mary Peltola?

right? This is a big question.

I, I mean, I can't take a few interviews from Alaska Public Media to tell me that it's not gonna do it. I would be surprised if it had an impact, I would, and I've, and I've seen some, I've seen some social listening data, which shows that this story is not exactly, um,

breaking through.

rocketing across both either nationally or in the states. So, um, I can't, you know, obviously, in a close race, everything makes a difference. I would, I don't think this is a game changer.

Yeah, I thought I thought that the piece by Alaska Public Media was like a good focus group, right? It's not hard data, but, you know, registered Republican planning to vote for Peltola said, This is nothing we haven't seen before or heard before. Um, and then someone else said, both sides play pretty dirty pool. And if you're stupid enough that you can't tell the difference between an incumbent and a non incumbent, I don't have any patience for you.

Alaskans are smarter than that. that's why Trump's Like,

the one who said people were too dumb to know what a ballot was.

I I do think there's a little bit of that where it's just like, you hear about the news and you're probably like, Well, that's kinda scummy, right? Like, that's kinda gross that they did that. But what's the different? Like? I thought that's what politics is, and that's why I don't like politics and probably hate both parties equally. Like, this is probably your median voter, right? And also, what do you think we're dumb and we can't figure out the difference between an incumbent and not an incumbent?

Like, there's also a little bit of that too, which is like, what, what, what are you talking about? Like, we, it says right there, Dan Senator Dan Sullivan and or Dan Sullivan incumbent, and then the other one is Daniel J. Sullivan. And now, I mean, it's public enough and it's getting enough attention that I'm sure there won't be much confusion,

yeah. Which is one of the arguments for why political arguments for Trump to win the lawsuit, right, is to draw attention to this,

right? Um, now I think that so we got the DOJ now trying to investigate. We got the House Oversight Committee subpoenas here and there. Like, I don't know where any of this goes, but it does seem like unless there is some kind of a campaign finance violation in all of this, right? Like, or there's some kind of sketchy financing that's more that's actually illegal and not sketchy. None of the other stuff seems like it is, um, even close to breaking the law.

right? Like, I mean, this is ultimately, in their minds, pretext for a very, very long shot to somehow prevent Mary Peltola f's election win from being certified, citing voter confusion like that of like, Mark Elias had a good piece on this, which got went to, like, they. They drafted the complaint in the suit to make to set the case for, or to set the context for claiming that voters were confused. Which could be an argument that could be used, although it'd be very, very hard, I think, to prevail on that argument.

To prevent Peltola from winning from being seated if she won,

and just so everyone knows, uh, uh, if Alaska goes to a ranked choice tabulation because, uh, no one hits 50%, um, November eighteenth is the date they do that. So buckle up, folks.

it's gonna be a fun few weeks.

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Um, thankfully, we haven't seen too many, uh, troubling signs of that yet, aside from already the Alaska thing they tried to do. They also tried to, uh, force California to set aside, um, a bunch of ballots that the federal government is claiming are non citizen ballots, though an appeals court just said, no, they can't do that. Um, uh, but there was a there was also a disturbing MS Now story this week about how FBI agents are telling people they're scared they may be ordered to seize voting machines or interfere with people's rights in other ways.

Again, it's just a few FBI agents that talk to MS now, um, but still, um. Also, according to government court filings, ICE and FBI agents will not be acting as poll monitors, but ATF, DEA, and Bureau of Prisons officers will, uh, but they won't be acting as law enforcement officers while they do, and they won't be carrying firearms. Yay, um, what do you think people should know about this, Dan? Because, you know, the most common question you get is like, are we gonna have a midterm?

What's gonna happen? Is he gonna fuck with it? If I know the polls show Democrats winning, but like, what is he gonna do to screw this up?

I think let's start with the fact that, yes, Donald Trump would like to interfere with these elections. He would like to do that, he, but more than interfering with them. He wants not just to stop the election, he wants you to think he's gonna stop the election. So that you will voluntarily cede your own political power, you will think your vote will not count. This is what all the stuff about mail balloting is, and we cannot let that happen.

And he, and here's the thing more than 40 million people have already voted, right? Donald Trump has a lot less power than he thinks he has when it comes to elections. He doesn't decide how they're administered, he doesn't decide when they're administered, he doesn't count the votes, he doesn't certify the election. He does all has almost nothing he can do there. And so the thing that I would just encourage everyone is to recognize that Trump is gonna try things that Democrats really do.

Have been thinking about this for a very long time. They the a lot of criticism of the Democratic Party. One thing that we have been very good at is election law over the years, and the best and the brightest in our party have been working on this for a very long time. They're working on it right now. Our job is not to be deterred from voting, not to be freaked out about it, is to go vote, to get our friends to vote, to make sure our vote counts, and try and go, let's just go win the election.

And if we win by enough, nothing they do can stop us.

I was just gonna say to to borrow the Trump campaign, Uh, mantra from 2024 too big, too rigged. Um, like, the the larger the margin, the harder it is to pull something off. You know, it's it, it's where you get problems is if it's like, we're up and we're waiting, and there's a recount, and it's like a point 2% difference. And then then that's when Trump jumps in, you know? But that's why you got the the best thing you can do to, like, prevent this is like, you know, get a bunch of people who might not have have a plan to vote, to have a plan to vote,

and don't freak everyone else out about it either. You know, there was this thing that happened a few weeks ago where there was this photo taken of these National Guard members standing in front of a ballot box in DC

Oh, I missed that.

When immediately viral, everyone freaked out about it. There's no evidence they were doing anything other than standing in front of the ballot box. You know, I don't know that I trust the government officials who have said that, but I also don't think that Trump's plan to steal the elections is gonna start with the DC mayoral election. Um, but that went viral. People are like, Oh my god, the National Guard's coming off that. It's like, like, be calm, carry on, go vote.

If we all vote, they cannot stop us.

stay in line if you're there when polls close. If there's a problem with your registration or eligibility, you can ask the election official about the remedy for that. You can get a provisional ballot, uh, where where that's available, and, uh, you can always report intimidation or voting problems to 866 our vote 866-687-8683 by call or text. So everyone have that number. Uh, all right, Dan, speaking of election day, we thought we'd talk a bit about what the two of us will be watching for as the results start to come in.

Got me nervous just saying that. Uh, what's on your list?

so I wanna start with some house races. I'm I did a little bit of some polling, so I'm gonna write a much fuller thing for message box. But just as the polls close on the East Coast, what are the races we should be watching to see how that are maybe harbingers of things to come? And I'm gonna start with Kentucky. Polls close in Kentucky first. Kentucky 6 is the seat held by Andy Barr, who is running for, he's the Republican nominee for this for the McConnell seat.

He that's his district that Trump won by about 15 points. We have a great Democratic candidate in Zach Dembo there. This race has been seen as competitive. Republicans are very worried about it. Look at the results there. That'll be their our first sign of whether of how big the wave is, if Dembo is immediately very competitive or even ahead, that's very positive. Then we're gonna get poll closings in North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, um, in Georgia. In Florida, it's Florida 27.

I'm very interested. That's in in South Carolina, Maria, Yeah, in South Carolina, South Carolina, a little bit less interesting on the house races, um, but in Florida, the house race that is Florida 27, I'm most interested in. That's the Maria Elvira Salazar seat. She's the one who did that very aggressive ad, sort of breaking with Trump on immigration. It's a it's a district that Trump won by 15 points, heavily Latino. Very interested to see what's going on there.

The caution I would give is in Nate made this point on still counting as well, that how Latinos in Florida move doesn't, this isn't gonna tell us how Latinos in the Rio Grande Valley move, but still, I think very interesting. And also, if they don't call that race for Ashley Moody quickly, that'll be very interesting as well. In North Carolina, I'm interested in North Carolina 11, which is the seat that, uh, was the Chuck Edwards seat before he resigned.

Jamie Ayger is there. Republicans have pulled out of that seat, uh, out of that race. Uh, Jamie Ayger is running there. He's a f- he's a fourth generation farmer. Very interesting to see. It was kind of they'll tell us a little bit about how Democrats are doing in rural areas. In Virginia, we got a bunch of house races. The one that I'm gonna look at is Virginia 5, which is a Trump plus 12 district, which is where our old friend Tom Perriello is running for Congress again.

This is sort of in and around the Charlottesville area. Um, this was supposed to be a very democratic district if the Virginia maps had come in. Um, so I'm fascinated by that one. And if that one is very competitive and they count votes fast in Virginia, another very positive sign. And then in another one I'm gonna look at, which closes a little bit later, is Alabama, Alabama 2, which is, uh, this is the district that the Republicans redrew after the Clay decision.

This is Shomari Figures, who is in this race, is the incumbent Democrat. Republicans have gotten very worried about this seat in recent days. It's a Trump plus 15 district. This is our this is gonna be our sign about Black turnout across the South. I think will be in this district. Cause even though it's much, uh, it has many fewer Black voters than it had before, it still has a high Black population. So I'm very interested in that one.

Then we're gonna get to Texas, and then our our friend Bobby Pulido, I'm interested, very interested in that race is another one, a bunch of races in Pennsylvania as well. And then I mentioned it earlier, but, um, in New York, New York 21, I think I'm gonna be very interested in seeing how that goes.

I mean, I don't have too much to add to that. I think Virginia is interesting because there's three house races there and it's sort of like a ladder of how good the night's going. So, like, Virginia two, um, I think Nate's model has that, uh, you know, projected at D plus 5.9 right now. That's Elaine Luria, she's running to get her seat back. So that's like the, um, the most gettable, right? I think that's And Trump like,

won that by, like, less than a point, right?

right, so we should absolutely get that one. And then, uh, sh- there's, uh, Shannon Taylor is running against Rob Rob Whitman in Virginia one. That is lean D. It's like Nate has it as like D plus 1.6. So then if we're also winning that, that's, you know, that's good, too. That's a little bit better. And then Virginia five, I mean, Nate has that as R plus 5.8 at likely R right now. So I think it like if Tom Perriello is winning in Virginia five, that's a really good night.

That's or at least it's a harbinger of a really good night.

yes, and you know, I, I when I did that, I did our Sunday podcast with Amy Walter a few weeks ago. It's worth like these are all potential signs. It's not we should be. It may be that the wave does not hit That's true, in the s the same way in every single geographic area or demographic group, right? It may hit better in red states than blue states, like you may see underperformance in New York in some places, but overperformances like in Iowa And too, in Iowa.

maybe better in heavily Um, Latino places than white yes,

pl- than whiter, uh, areas. Same thing with Black voters, as you just mentioned in Alabama. So, yeah, you have to sort of look at the, um, demographic representation of the race that you're looking at in order to sort of make, um, or or to compare it to, like, other places like that all around the country.

and then Michigan is gonna be f- like, obviously, we're everyone's gonna have their eyes go to Michigan, but there is just so much interesting stuff there, obviously, Abdul's race. But then you get a bunch of interesting house races, um, in Michigan, ones that Democrats should win, like Michigan 7, there's Michigan 9. There is how the governor does, you know, relative to how Josh Slemenda does relative to Abdul. Just that is gonna be a very, very fascinating.

You're gonna have a bunch of these different benchmarks you can use to look to measure success and like which voter groups you're doing well with. Whew,

The other thing is some of these, pl- like, I, I saw this about Michigan, too, you know, it, Michigan can count slow sometimes, and if Abdul is down, or some of these house candidates are down, and it's like one in the morning. But the votes that we're waiting for tend to be like, you know, areas like Detroit or like that, Or we hope, like, you know, right, you just gotta wait, you just gotta wait.

yeah, it's it's Michigan, I think, is the one that I mean, maybe maybe these new polls we write in Abdul will win relatively easy, but that's one you could see yourself waiting for, Wayne County and being very, which is where Detroit is being very nervous about. Because there are qu- there have been questions based on his primary performance, although it hasn't shown up in all the polls about how Abdul would do with Black voters. And so you don't know what you're gonna net out of there.

So it's int- it's the whole thing is fascinating, scary, scary, but fascinating.

yeah, uh, last thing before we go, we know you're probably feeling anxious, uh, about how Tuesday's gonna go, and, uh, you're not alone. We thought we'd play some questions from our subscriber-only voicemail line, uh, and take a crack at responding.

Hi, this is Ted calling from New York. I heard yesterday a recent NPR poll which, uh, looked not great. Um, low enthusiasm for, uh, younger voters, little bit of a bucket of cold water. So I'm wondering, hoping you can, uh, you can address that poll. Thank you.

Hello, this is Brian. I'm calling from Medford, Massachusetts. What if all these polls are wrong? I'm seriously w- worried that we're gonna have a serious miss. And, like, the blue tsunami is gonna be more like a blue trickle, kinda similar to how the 2022 midterms turned out. Thanks. Bye. Hey, this is Jen in Philly. I'm wondering, is there historical election data showing whether there's a point in the run-up to a a midterm or even a general, when the polling leader becomes meaningfully predictive of the eventual outcome?

Is it possible that's a real predictive factor, or can you offer similar reassurances for the deadweighters? Thanks for what you're doing.

I do appreciate Jen, uh, trying a different avenue there, like, is it can I? I'm I'm looking for certainty so bad that I just wanna know. Is there a specific date by which it is more predictive? I r- I really respect that question. Um, go ahead, Dan,

so much there, right? And this is we h- I mean, I yeah, I know you hear it too from everyone you talk to. This is the fear about the polls, that somehow the polls are wrong, that we're gonna this is gonna be 2016 or 2020. And I'd say a couple things with that. One, a polling error is very possible, and you also don't need a polling error for us not to take the Senate. As I mentioned before, the polls could be right, and and in all these margin of ver- in a margin of error race, either outcome is within the range of possible outcomes.

So the polls could be historically correct, and Ashley Henson could win in Iowa because she's only down, like, two points in the polls, whatever it is, right? Same thing basically in all of these states. We should not assume well, and then second, second, I'd say it is worth noting that the polls are more accurate in midterms than general elections. Like that has been the case, the polls were relatively accurate in 2018 and 2022. I just would state again that we should not assume that every single polling error is bad for Democrats.

In fact, in 2022, in the individual states where the polls were off, half of them were off underestimating Democrats. In previous, like, like in 2012, the polls underestimated Barack Obama. Like that does happen, and it is possible that the pollsters are so worried about not counting Republican voters that they're waiting, they're overcompensating, waiting the polls in the wrong direction. That is what happened in 2025 when, um, in Virginia, there was a six point error, and in, uh, north New Jersey, it was almost it was a ten point error, all underestimating Democrats.

I would say, put all the polls aside, pretend there were no polls, um, and you had to, uh, predict sort of what's gonna happen just based on the environment. Last time Donald Trump was president and there was a midterm election, it was 2018. The economy was doing quite well. He was only two years into his term, and, um, there was no war in Iran. He went into that midterm, he lost the popular vote by eight and a half points.

Now, this is the second time he's, uh, been president, uh, where where there's a midterm, and there is a war going on in the Middle East that we are involved in. That has spiked gas prices to a level that they have never been on Election Day in as long as we can remember. On top of inflation, on top of tariffs that have been also hurting consumers, uh, in a period where, um, people's, uh, inflation has outpaced people's wages.

And if you put all that together and you think he he lost by eight and a half points last time, it it reasons it stands to reason that this time around, it would at least be eight and a half or more, but probably more. yeah, yeah, and Especially because now he's been president. I mean, think of everything that's happened between 2018 and now. There was the whole insurrection thing. There was, and like, we've seen, you know, his approval rating even in the elections, um, where he outperformed his polls worse than they were in 2018.

And so it's like, just if you if you just put all the polls aside and you never looked at a poll and you looked at the map, you would think, yeah, he's gonna do at least, if not worse, at least as bad, if not worse, and probably worse than 2018 when it was eight and a half points. If it's eight and a half points this time, does it guarantee that we win the Senate? No, because again, you need to, like, some of these states are like double-digit Trump wins.

But, you know, if it's ten and a half points, like the time Siana Poll has it nationally, yeah, that's probably enough to to take the Senate.

I mean, a blue wave is coming, it's just a question of whether it's big enough to to wash the Democrats into the Senate majority. Yeah, and I That is the question.

think, and I think it was like, you know, it was. It was fun for some pundits to talk about a blue trickle for a while. But like, if we don't win the Senate, but we win the House, get a bunch of seats and we come close in the Senate, pick up a few seats, like, that's not a blue trickle. No, and It's just not.

just the last thing on 2022, everyone's focused on this. The polls were right in 2022. The Republicans never had anywhere near a eight point, nine point, ten point, eleven point generic ballot lead. It was like three points, and they ended up winning by like two and a half. It is the the the idea of the red wave is not borne out by the polls. It came from bad analysis of the polls. The polls were actually correct, and they predicted what you would get, which is a narrow Republican House victory and Democrats holding the Senate, is what we got.

all that said, of course, there could be a polling error. Of course, we can't give you that certainty. The only certainty we could give you is, um, if you go have some conversations with people about politics and make sure your friends and everyone in your social network has a plan to vote. And, uh, that you're available to ask any questions. If they're not sure to vote for Democrats, then you're gonna be in good shape. There's plenty, there's plenty to do between now and Tuesday.

You go to vote save America dot com and we will, uh, we will find plenty for you to do.

find five people in your life who you think may not have voted yet and remind them to vote now.

It's the best thing you could do, it's the best thing you could do, and the next best thing you could do is to become a subscriber, uh, become a friend of the pod. Because then your voicemail could end up on this show, and more than that, you get ad free episodes, you get all kinds of subscriber only benefits and shows that we do, Like Polarizer, like like Polar the essential, the essential, Coaster,

the essential subscriber show.

uh, and you get to support. It's the best way to support the work we're doing here at Crooked, which is to try to make sure we have more pro democracy, independent media in this country. Um, because, uh, right now there's too much right wing slop out there. So, uh, go to crooked dot com slash friends and subscribe. Thank you to Ted, Brian and Jen for calling in. And a reminder you too can leave us a voicemail with your questions if you sign up to be a friend of the pod subscriber.

That's our show for today. Tommy will be back in the feed on Sunday, talking with CNN's Harry Enten about the state of the race in the closing days. Then Tommy and Lovett and I will have your regularly scheduled pod Save America on Tuesday morning, and on Tuesday night, Dan will be here in LA. With the three of us for Alex's election night livestream and then a late night bonus episode that'll be out Wednesday. So lots of content coming.

Talk to you soon.

Bye everyone.

Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production. Our show is produced by Austin Fisher, Saul Rubin, McKenna Roberts and Michael Goldsmith, with Reed Chirlin, Elijah Cohn and Adrian Hill. Our team includes Matt DeGrote, Ben Hefco, Jordan Cantor, Charlotte Landis, Kenny Moffett, Adam Lipper, Joseph Dutra, Desmond Taylor, Dan Farah, David Tolls, Mia Kelman, Ryan Young and Naomi Single. Our staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.