What the Final Polls Tell Us

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I'm Tommy Vietor. It is only two days until the midterms, two days until election day. And we are all just refreshing those polling sites as fast as we possibly can to deal with our anxiety, to see what's gonna happen and to figure out what the numbers tell us. So I brought in an expert today. Uh, we are gonna talk with CNN's chief data analyst Harry Enten. You can find him on CNN. He does hilarious and really informative bits with, uh, John Berman on CNN on TV.

You can also find him on the Enten scale on CNN All Access, and Harry does exclusive data coverage for CNN on YouTube. We spoke on Friday, we broke down the kind of broader mood music of the electorate and what he's seeing in polling. We talked about the odds of Democrats taking the House. Uh, we walked through all the Senate races, uh, to see what the Democratic chances are in each. We also talked about some concerns about polling and response bias and whether pollsters are getting enough Republicans on the phone to get accurate samples.

It was a great conversation. I think you're really gonna enjoy it. Uh, but also on the midterm night, you don't have to go it alone. Because to celebrate, to commiserate, to do both, uh, Alex Wagner is gonna do a live stream. Uh, she's gonna be joined by a bunch of your favorite crooked hosts, including me, Stacey Abrams, Aaron Ryan, Dan Pfeiffer, Jon Lovett, Jon Favreau, everybody. Uh, it's all happening on the Pod Save America YouTube channel on Tuesday, November third at nine p.m.

Eastern, six p.m. Pacific. So come check it out. Subscribe to Pod Save America on YouTube so you don't miss it. Now, here's Harry. Harry Enten is the chief data analyst for CNN, but he is so much more than just a numbers guy. He gives you the data with pizzazz, usually with my friend John Berman. I love the kind of routine you guys have with, Hey, Harry, it's uh,

great to see you, buddy.

ah, you know what? Anything to help brighten people's mornings with a little bit of numbers. You get both your vegetables, but you get a little dessert as well.

we'll see about the dessert. You also for those just listening and not watching on YouTube, by the way, subscribe to Pod Save America on YouTube. What are you doing? We're trying to build a progressive counterweight to all the right wing crap on YouTube. Uh, Harry's got, like, a beautiful mind background with lots of graphs and charts and numbers. I assume it's all just nonsense you're you made up, but it looks cool.

You know what? Any comparison to Russell Crowe, I will take.

Yeah, well, you do look like a young Russell Crowe. You also seem to be Donald Trump's favorite, uh, TV personality or CNN personality, he said. This is a quote. The best person on CNN is pollster Harry Enten. Is that because he thinks you're hot and have a great ass?

Oh my god, uh, look, uh, I can't comment on other people's backsides. Um, you know, I I'm about what's up here, I'm pointing to my head. Uh, I'm not as much as what is on my back. Uh, but you know what? Maybe he watches, you know, in that case, he would be of the same opinion as my mother. That is, I'm a good looking young Jewish boy.

okay, so let's get to the polls, not the ones anyway. Uh, big picture. Historically speaking, one of the iron rules of politics is that the party in power loses seats in the midterms. There are some exceptions, but most of the time, the president gets punished in the midterms, especially when his approval rating is low and Donald Trump's approval rating is quite low. Set the table for us. What is the historical average in terms of the hit the party in power takes, and how do you think Trump's current approval rating impacts the likely outcome here?

Kind of just big picture.

Yeah, okay, so you know, w- uh, you sort of teed it off there. Have, I've been believe, uh, three, uh, midterm elections since the Civil War in which the White House party did not, in fact, lose seats in the House. Thirty four with FDR was one, uh, Bill Clinton, 1998 is two, and George W. Bush in 2002, coming off a nine eleven is three. It would be highly unusual for the White House party not to lose at least some seats going into a midterm election.

To add that to the fact that there are only two presidents, by my count, besides Donald Trump, who had a sub minus fifteen point net approval rating, that's approval rating minus disapproval rating. Only two others besides Donald Trump who had a sub fifteen minus fifteen point net approval rating. Those being Harry S. Truman going into the forty sixth midterm and George W. Bush going into the 2,000 sixth midterm. And in both of those cases, their parties didn't just lose seats, they got absolutely shellacked.

Uh, and they didn't just lose the U.S. House, they lost the U.S. Senate as well. hm, you don't say So, yes, you don't say in both of those cases, uh, the uh, opposition party ended up with north of 230 house seats. And so I think, you know, a lot of people have been, you know, at least a few months ago, thinking about those redistricting efforts that the Republicans have been doing. Uh, thinking about how polarized our politics are and being like, this may just be a midterm.

Yes, Democrats may gain the House majority, but they won't, you know, quote unquote, blow it out. But the historical comparisons that we have to this midterm, um, in terms of the president's unpopularity, suggest that it's quite the possibility that Democrats don't just take back the House, but take it back rather easily, at least according to how unpopular Donald John Trump is.

I wanna walk through some specifics on the House and then go through some specific Senate races. But first, I need to just unload my anxiety on you like you're my therapist. Um, the thing that keeps me up at night is, uh, polling error and response bias. I think this write up from a recent New York Times poll of Minnesota summarizes well. Uh, I'm just gonna read this to you guys. So they they they have Peggy Flanagan, the Democrat in Minnesota, defeating Michelle Tafoya, the Republican by fifty four to forty.

So this is from the Times's write up. This is one of the biggest outliers we've ever published. No nonpartisan poll of the race has shown Miss Flanagan by up more than four percentage points since Labor Day. If the polls or our polls wind up underestimating Republican strength this year, we may look back and say this was the canary in the coal mine. Something like the a 2026 equivalent of the Seltzer poll showing Kamala Harris ahead in neighboring Iowa in 2024.

In hindsight, and even at the time, that result was clearly a warning sign that pollsters were struggling to reach white working class voters rather than any indication of Democratic strength. There are good reasons such a warning might come from Minnesota, unlike every other state we pulled this cycle. Minnesota doesn't have party registration or partisan primary participation on the voter file. As a consequence, we have fewer tools to correct non-response bias. Uh, there was a similar article in the Washington Post Friday that talked about the problem of contacting Republicans in Kansas.

Harry, do you want to talk me down from the ledge, or is it appropriate that I'm kinda sitting up there? How do you think about this problem?

look, I don't think any of us should be on ledges. Uh, I'm a big believer at the end of the day, we'll wake up on Wednesday morning and, uh, hopefully no one's nobody anywhere has jumped off of anything. Uh, but but what I would say is this look, we know that in the Trump era, especially in states that Donald Trump won in the prior presidential election, there has been an underestimation of Republican strength. It's been four points on average in close Senate races, that is Senate races in which the polling average before election day was within five points.

You all of a sudden take that and you put it across the Senate map. And if, let's say it happened in all the states, then Republicans don't just hold on to the United States Senate, they hold on to it with ease. Of course, that said, that said, this is like, I I feel like this is the season where I say, but or however, couching everything just so I still have a job come Thursday morning. No, it's it's because, you know, there there are many different pathways you can take.

And I would also say that in 2022, the last midterm that we had, in fact, what you saw was that in 100% of the races that in which they were the close Senate races, right? Five points on either side, the Democrats outperformed their final polling in all of them. Pollsters have been trying to attack this problem of underestimating Republicans. The question is, did all of that work, has all that work actually paid off or not?

And if you had the answer, if I had that answer, I can assure you, I wouldn't be here with you right now. Uh, I I, I would probably be on some island living somewhere because then I would be all knowing and know the future. And I would be in a much better place than having a, uh, NHL playoff beard, you might say, or, in this case, the lead up to election, uh, playoff beard.

yeah, you just be on Kalshi betting on races and, uh, walking away with a lot of money. Okay, so that's the anxiety. Those are the things that we're uncertain about. The reason I'm nervous, some of the kind of things in the ether, why Democrats, I think, have PTSD are not and are not as hopeful as the data might suggest they could or should be. But let's start with the House of Representatives. Uh, the Cook Political Report says the most likely outcome at this point is the Democrats flip between twelve and twenty five seats, resulting in Democrats holding 227 to 240 House seats, uh, in the 2027, when 2027, uh,

starts the new term. Does that sound right to you? And and is there a broader range that you're kind of thinking about, kind of like the Hopium to doomer range?

Sure, so I I I do think that that sounds, hm, broadly, as a good starting point. And one of the things I think is so interesting, right, is right now, if you look at the Cook Political Report, or you look at Sabato's Crystal Ball or what have you. Um, you will see that Democrats reach a majority just by combining the lean likely and solid uh categories for them. They don't need any of the toss up races.

That is highly unusual. That has not generally been the case. Uh, so for me, you know, right now, I almost think at this point, at this point, assuming we know what we're talking about and Tuesday may come and go, and it turns out there was something missed. The 225 sort of almost feels much more like a floor than it does like a ceiling. Uh, if you look at the people who obviously do this mathematically and have built statistical models, they are all north of 230 as the most likely outcome.

Uh, and, you know, I did a YouTube, uh, exclusive. I I. This is one of the most fun things in our era of the, you know, of being able to reach people in different, you know, mediums. Um, is, you know, I went on, I was like, the chance of a blowout, and I define the blowout as 230 or north has been rising, and that is absolutely the case. So I think that that's fine, the 227, the 240 or 230 or whatever the exact number was that you said.

I think that's perfectly fine. I think that's a nice middle ground, but I really would not be surprised by north of 240. You know, there's th th. There was sort of this analogy that was, you know, done I uh, in terms of if Democrat Democrats get north of, let's say, you know, a nine or a ten point popular vote victory, which some of the generic ballot polling or some of the national house polling certainly suggests is plausible.

You really could end up if you're able to stretch it out. It's not like you go from okay, you know, we, uh, uh, we if we are the Democrats, we win by nine, or Democrats win by nine. And then it becomes, um, you know, we gain three seats versus if we go from winning by nine to winning by ten or eleven, it's becomes you may win ten more seats or twelve more seats. You know, it just it you get this sort of deluge as R Republicans, h, you know, had when they did the redistricting e either mid decade or at the e end of the last census cycle, uh, where they tried to essentially say, Oh, it would never get

that high, but the levy may in fact be breached. So that's certainly, certainly plausible on on on the hopium side, and I can go through the, uh, potential worst case scenario for Democrats. But I have been speaking for a long time and my TV mind is going. Shut up, shut up, shut up, shut up, shut up.

We'll stick with the hopium on this one. But so we got some political junkies listening to this show. They are going to be, you know, refreshing the CNN website. The second polls close in a lot of these states, what are some bellwether districts you are watching and why? And and what can they tell us kind of early on, maybe some East Coast districts or Eastern Time Zone districts that might help us sort of have a signal about where the night is going?

I mean, look, uh, when the polls close at six, uh, in Kentucky, Kentucky six, I think is the number one, right? This is the uh, district around Lexington. Uh, Ben Chandler back in the day, uh, who was a, uh, in the lineage of happy Chandler for the baseball, uh, fans who are out there, who, of course, was the commissioner when, uh, Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier, uh, had been a long time rep there. Uh, that is a Trump district that Trump won that district rather easily, but has some ancestral Democrat, uh, ties to it.

Uh, there has been some data to in, uh, to indicate that the Democrat there, uh, hm, can in fact may do very well, but truthfully doesn't even need to win there. If that race is close, I think is an indication. Um, in Indiana, um, uh, Victoria Sports District, uh, the number of which is escaping me right now. Uh, that's another indicator, right? Uh, I if that race is close. Not saying that Democrats are gonna necessarily flip either of them, but I think those are sort of two places you can sort of s sort of start off with.

Um, beyond that, you know, I am gonna be interested at seven p. m. You know, how does Don Davis do in North Carolina? Uh, obviously, there have been some redistricting done there, and I'm interested to see if not only if he holds his seat, but, uh, whether he does significantly better. Um, beyond that, uh, you know, Florida, I'm interested in the Latino districts. Uh, Donald Trump made a lot of gains with Latino voters, um, back in 2024.

And putting aside look, I don't as if we discuss, I don't think that one or two house seats are gonna make or break a majority for Democrats. But Latino voters are very very important to James Talerico and his hopes to become the first U.S. Senator, uh, as a Democrat, uh, elected from Texas since 1988. So getting some early signals on the on the Latino vote in and around Orlando, uh, down in the Miami Dade area, um, the I I think I'd be interested I in that as well.

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Uh, North Carolina seems like a done deal, Georgia seems like a done deal. Or Democrats lose those states, we got big, big problem. So we're just gonna set those aside and skip em. Um, let's start with Texas, though. You just mentioned James Talerico. Uh, the latest CNN poll has Talerico up six points over Ken Paxton. Nate Silver's polling average has Talerico up 3%. Uh, what is the data telling you about Texas, and what do you think, you know, Talerico needs to win here?

Well, what's like the secret sauce?

Okay, so let's let me take it from the other side. If I'm, let's say, a Republican, I'm saying, Okay, guys, we gotta hold this seat. Uh, we know that historically, we have done very well in Texas. What we just need to do is turn out Republican voters and, you know, get Ken Paxton to essentially equal what Greg Abbott has historically done, and that would be enough, even if we lose independence, that's our plan. Here's the problem.

The problem is is many fold. First off, the problem is if you look at, I believe the last Fox News poll, uh, James Talerico is getting nearly 30% of non MAGA Republicans. That is a huge, huge number. And could potentially you combine that with the fact that he's winning independents by, uh, twenty, thirty, thirty three, thirty four points, depending on which poll you're exactly look at after Donald Trump won independents in Texas by a point, that's a problem.

And then we spoke about, uh, I spoke about Latino voters. There's polling that shows James Talerico up thirty, forty points with Latino voters potentially in Texas. Donald Trump carried the Latino vote in Texas by ten points, according to the exit polls. You don't have to be a mathematical genius to know that those two numbers don't sound anything alike. Now, here's the question. The question, of course, is, I think again, a lot of the listeners on here, if you are a Democrat, you are worried about, can I trust the polls?

Well, here's what I would say. First off, there has not been any example since Lloyd Bentsen was elected in 1988 of a Democrat polling as well as James Talerico is right now. Two, on that same sort of line of thinking, Beto O'Rourke actually outperformed his final polls back in 2018. So this, to me, is one of those weird states where if I was skeptical of the polling, yeah, I'm skeptical of it everywhere. Insofar as, you know, the elections are so tight and small, you know, even small differences in the polls can make a difference.

But in terms of the list of states where I am the most skeptical of the polling, Texas is actually in the middle of the group or down near the bottom. I actually believe those polls. Now, the race is tight enough that a four point switcheroo makes all the difference. But I I, I look at those polls, I that to me seems like a real deal, especially considering that Ken Paxton is the least popular GOP nominee, uh, in, uh, for the Senate in Texas this entire century.

yeah. I mean, this is an interesting state because it's a combination of factors like Talerico is good, Paxton is historically awful. Uh, the demographics, as you mentioned, are important here. I mean, there's a huge Latino vote in Texas. We've seen a big shift there nationally. Trump's approval rating is down. Awful. Um, I I, yeah, I think I trust the polling. I feel bullish on Texas and trust the polling in Texas in part because what I'm hearing privately from campaigns, um, tracks with what I'm seeing publicly in public polls, which is Talerico up by a bit.

Gina Hinojosa may be having a chance to pull out that governor's race. When you when I hear you say that Talerico is pulling, what was it, 30% of non MAGA Republicans? That makes me wince and worry about response bias because those seem like the kinds of Republicans who might answer a poll. Whereas, you know, Could be Trump fans just won't, but we'll see, we'll see.

we'll see. I mean, look, uh, Ken Paxton's still doing very well with MAGA Republicans. Um, you know, obviously that's sort in some ways, a, uh, in many ways, or is is a self selecting group in. But we'll see, we'll see.

yeah, we'll see.

We'll know soon enough.

We'll soon soon enough. All right, let's turn to Michigan. Um, to full disclosure, I have been an Abdul El-Sayed supporter, uh, since the primary. He's a friend. We did a show with him here at Crooked Media, so we're very biased. Uh, I think he's a incredibly talented communicator. I think the polling average has him up almost four points, uh, over Mike Rogers. But I'm very anxious about the narrative in the closing week. Like Trump's out there calling Abdul a jihadist, he's questioning his loyalty to America.

Uh, Haley Stevens, uh, the woman he, uh, Abdul defeated in the primary and her husband, have made these kind of high profile comments that I find quite unhelpful. Um, I know the campaign wants to be focused on the economy, cause that's what voters really care about. This stuff is not focused on the economy. But, like, I don't know, how important is the closing couple weeks to you? How much of this do you think is like Twitter noise versus like, what voters are really gonna vote on?

Uh, what do the numbers say here?

Okay, so this, to me, is one of the most interesting races insofar as I don't think that the narrative matches what the polling data is showing us. So we had a CNN poll that had Elsiad up seven, okay, after just after the primary, Fox had a poll that had them tied. I'm sorry, did not have them tied. Had Mike R- you can see my my my playoff beard is sort of also emblematic of my lack of sleep.

Had Mike Rogers up by four. Obviously, if you look at the averages, you look at those two polls, there's been a clear shift. You look at the average of polls, there's also been a shift. When you look, for instance, at the issue of Israel, uh, I think a lot, you know, a lot of folks, um, some in the media, some in this sort of, you know, the the chattering class, you might say, have thought that that issue would work for Mike Rogers in the general election the way that it seemed to work for Elsiad in the primary.

Here's the thing is voters who say that Israel's their top policy or say it's, you know, an extremely important to their vote, they're more likely to support Elsiad. Elsiad's favorables are higher than Mike Rogers's favorables. I I'm like, I'm looking at the polling, and what I hear in one case doesn't necessarily match up with what the polling is suggesting. That doesn't mean, you know, in the primary, the very limited polling that came out, and it wasn't necessarily the highest quality polling, did overestimate Elsiad.

It's possible, it's possible, anything is possible. But in terms of what I see as the narrative out there versus what the polling data is saying to me, I'm not sure. There's a state in which the two of them are further apart, um, than the Wolverine state.

Yeah, I feel I I noticed that too. You were formerly the CEO of Wedgewood Polling, right? The

Yes, that's exactly right. the the Yes, I, uh, I the polling from I was, those faking numbers, yes, that's exactly that that's exactly who I was. I can, I can, I, you know, it's one of these things. It's so funny. Where a decade ago, uh, nine years ago, I guess I I should count it as nine. Don't don't make it further along than it than it needs to be. Harry. Um, a decade ago, I wrote an article, uh, you know, for five thirty eight, which is where I w- I was formerly employed.

F- with a very similar thing. And it's one of these issues that I think we sort of have going on right now. And it's only as AI has sort of taken things, et cetera. Uh, I, I'm, I'm not gonna be surprised if we we s. I'd be very surprised if we don't see more attempts at the Wedgwoods.

yeah. It's too easy to just make up numbers, post them on the internet, get a bunch of people to share them, and, you know, get it out into the ether. Long before, you know, companies like The New York Times or CNN or Five Thirty Eight have a chance, uh, Five Thirty Eight R-I-P, have a chance to vet the pollster and the polling, and kind of, uh, dispense with it when it's fake. Um, let's turn to Alaska.

I was feeling bullish about Alaska. Mary Peltola has overperformed a lot in past elections. She is up nearly four points in the polling average, but then the New York Times came along. Huge conservative bias over there. I've always said it

o- of course, that's what the that's always, uh, what they've been always been the narrative accused. Yes,

about the times. Uh, they ran this big story about efforts by Democrats to recruit another guy named Dan Sullivan to run in this race and siphon votes away from Senator Dan Sullivan, the Republican incumbent. Harry, is there any data that can help us assess the impact of this story? And how much, like, how much stock do you put in the idea of October surprises? Generally, in a cycle like this, where the broader story is the economy and inflation and gas prices, and that cake seems pretty baked, especially in Alaska, where I think you're talking like eight a gallon.

yeah, uh, look, uh, there are a few things going on. First off, Mary Peltola has absolutely outperformed sort of the baseline that we've seen. You know, she won a House seat in 2022, for example. Now, granted, Sarah Palin wasn't necessarily the strongest of candidates I've ever seen, but she still won one. Uh, that being said, uh, look, Alaska has elected one Democratic senator in the twenty first century, and that was Mark Begich in 2008.

And his opponent had literally just been convicted in a federal trial. And Ted Stevens, if you take that away, the last time that Democrats won a United States Senate race in the great state of Alaska, and it happens to also be the last time they won in a midterm, was Mike Gravel in 1974. Uh, Gravel, who I think to this audience is probably better known for running for president in 2008 and then also sort of in 2020 and skipping stones along a pond.

Uh, so

through a rock, walk through through a rock, a rock.

yes, uh, th- th- this to me is a tough state to win if you're a Democrat. Now, the fundamentals are there. I guess the question is, does this go beyond the bounds? I I, you know, one of the things I think we've learned in the Trump era is that what we thought were the norms might not have been the norms, and you can break norms and be Good point. Yeah, fine. Is this nor is this the norm?

I is this go beyond the normal bounds? Does this go beyond the normal bounds? I don't know the answer to that question. That being said, I laugh to myself insofar as what are we doing? I if if I'm a Democrat, I'm asking myself, what are what are what are we doing? What are and and you know, I know, as I

I know.

go, what are you doing? For no other reason, this is a ranked choice voting state.

It's so stupid, it's so stu. It's like, I, I don't know, yeah, like, the ranked choice voting piece of it is relevant for listeners just because it means it's. It seems less likely that having another Dan Sullivan on the ballot is gonna actually impact the vote. But the effort to ref recruit this guy seems so goddamn ham-handed. And then you have this former Mary Peltola campaign manager who decided to go unburden herself to the New York Times and then try to take it all back.

Like, that's a thing you can do, just like I, I retract my quotes. And she was gonna do a wrongful termination suit to the campaign. It's like, seems like you were rightly terminated if you were going to unburden yourself about, you know, all the like anyway. It was just so stupid and messy and foolish, and I was like, we don't need to do this, guys. Like it, I feel like this is obviously not helping her win right now.

No, no, uh, and so look, the other question that I kinda have is because the polling from there has been so limited, uh, I don't even know if we'll be able to measure it. Uh, I'm sure there'll be some questions, you know, if some good pollsters will put on their questionnaires, but it's gonna be difficult to even measure the exact effect on it. Uh, at this point, you know, you look at the prediction markets, we'll s get some final polling, I'm sure, in the last few days.

Uh, I, you know, my baseline is maybe you take a point or two off of Peltola, um, but I don't know if that's the right baseline or not. And even if it is, uh, it might not be enough to change the race. If the pre, if the pre-polling, uh, pre-this week polling, uh, it was right on with the result, it may get Sullivan a little bit tighter, but it may not even be enough.

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That's drink ag one dot com slash crooked. All right, so people pr feel pretty bullish about Ohio, which is surprising to me because Trump won the state by eleven points in 2024. JD Vance won pretty overwhelming in 2022. I think he got 53% of the vote.

Won it by six, I think.

Yeah, Trump got 53% in 2020, so it's been a pretty conservative state. Uh, although Sherrod Brown has been, you know, a a winning Democrat, he's he's had the secret sauce to win in Ohio many, many cycles. Um, so right now Nate's polling average has it at 48% for Sherrod Brown. Uh, John Heustead is at 45%. This is another state where I I worry about a polling miss. Um, but what do you think of Sherrod Brown's chances against, uh, John Heustead's fat, juicy, thick, thick dumper?

I mean, let me tell you, I will never be able to think of John Heustead the same way ever again after Donald Trump. Uh, the way that he's talked about Heustead's backside, the way that he's spoken about Ken Paxton and his personal appearance. I have to say, Trump does know how to make a line that makes you you r- you remember it automatically.

oh, yeah, yeah. C- Can you model the value of being kind of caked up, having like a bedogadonk?

Yeah, I mean, let me tell you, we do have data that indicates that taller presidential candidates do better. Maybe we should be doing some, um, research into how their backsides actually project electoral chances.

some for 2028, yeah,

Uh, that's right, that's something for 2020. We're always building towards the future. Uh, look, if I'm a Republican in that state, I I say, look, we have won, uh, every statewide race recently. We have had we've been underestimated in the polling, that is absolutely the case. Uh, and so I I look and I say, maybe this is happening again, and that's something to hang our hats on. That being said, look, Husted is an appointed incumbent, and there's a massive difference between being appointed and being elected.

There's anecdotes out there that suggest that some of the voters in that state of Ohio, the Buckeye State, the Great Buckeye State, actually still think that Sherrod Brown is the incumbent there. And he has, but he has gone on the ballot and won in Senate races in Ohio time and and time out. He did it in Trump's first term, first midterm election. I will say that Ohio is one of those states where, again, if I were ranking the list, I would put Ohio closer to the top of the list of where I'm the most skeptical of the polling data.

Uh, and that is in part because it's a state with a lot of white working class voters. It's a state, you know, where we looked at the polling in 2020 and, you know, Joe Biden and Donald Trump were pretty gosh darn close. And then, um, Trump blew him out. You look at the polling in 2022, and while Bernie Moreno did seem to pull away from Sherrod Brown near the end, uh, a lot of the polling middle of month of October.

I don't think Bernie Bernie Moreno actually even popped a polling lead until, like, late October. I think it was like the fifteenth to twentieth, at least in terms of the polling that I was looking at. So that's a race where, look, Sherrod Brown has won run before, has done well. AI plays in that state in a way that I don't think it plays as much in other states. And, uh, Brown has made a big deal about the data centers there, uh, and it shows up in the polling data.

Um, but it's certainly a state where I am I. I still think Sherrod Brown's more likely to win than not, but it's certainly the state where I'm the most sort of eyes eyes need to be wide open about the potential for a polling miss.

interesting. okay. yeah. Well, Sherrod is snatched, so we'll see if that factors in. Maine is one I'm anxious about. Um, obviously, the process for going from Graham Plattner to Troy Jackson was was not ideal. Um, uh, it took him it took Troy Jackson a while to get going as a candidate, I think. Um, he was off the trail for a while. He had to raise a lot of money quickly. Susan Collins is a historic overperformer in her elections.

Uh, the current polling average in Maine has Jackson up 2.5 points, but I'd also feel like we're not seeing a ton of quality data out of Maine. What what is your take on Maine? And can you just remind people of the way Susan Collins has overperformed the polls in the past, or overperformed, you know, other elections in her state?

Well, first off, both on both of those, uh, the case, the last three election cycles, so this is dating back 2020, 2014, 2008. She's outperformed her polls, and not just by a little bit, but I think in each of those cases, it was at least five points, if not double digits, which was the case in 2020. So she definitely has a history of doing so. Um, and more than that, she's obviously outperformed the partisan baseline, right?

Uh, Donald Trump lost in Maine, um, rather easily, or hard for him, and Joe Biden won rather easily in 2020. And then Susan Collins walked re-election, beating her polls very easily. So that is all the case. Here's the thing about Maine that I do think is interesting, which is even in those poll those years in which the polling showed that Susan Collins was trailing, it was Sarah Gideon back in 2020. She was still better liked than not in the polling.

That is, her favorable was higher than her unfavorable. That's not the case this year. She that's her net favorable rating, net favorability rating, and I think in our CNN poll was like minus ten, minus eleven, minus twelve, somewhere in that neighborhood. So this may be a different climate than we're used to seeing. Uh, and our our CNN poll again, we'd, uh, categorized as no clear leader. I think it was something like forty nine, forty five Jackson, something something in that range.

It was four points of separating them either way. Uh, yeah, I I get it. I I, uh, your skepticism, again, based upon the fact that Susan Collins has outperformed the polling and seems to pull, you know, a rabbit out of the hat each time. But I almost am like, it kind of makes a lot of sense, right? Uh, you know, there we're getting more polarized than ever before. Donald Trump is really, really unpopular i i in Maine.

Uh, you know, she really hasn't run in a tough year since 2008, and that was when the correlation that was the same year in which, you know, uh, Mark Pryor was running basically unopposed. I think maybe there's a Green Party candidate running in Arkansas. Uh, the that's just a lifetime ago. So I get your skepticism, but kind of also makes sense to me.

okay, okay. Am I more fun to banter with than John Berman, your partner in crime on CNN? I've known John for a long time. He's a very funny guy, but he's he has to play the straight man on TV. I always wonder why why let him let him loose.

I I am a fan when you can get Johnny B to go a little loose. Johnny B, you know, he was a hastening puddings guy back at back in his Harvard days. Uh, he's a very funny guy and very

What the hell does that

very quick.

mean? Oh, is that like a club thing?

Yes, it's a club thing. Uh, I I dare anyone in the audience to, uh, uh, look him up from his hasty pudding days. I think it, I, I, I, uh, John probably hates me for it, but I think it, I think it's a perfect, you know, it, it, it really encapsulates John of how he's honestly one of the smartest guys that I know, and he's also one of the kindest guys I know. He's also one of the funniest guys that I He's very know.

funny. Does that mean there's like a photo of him, like singing in his underwear somewhere? Is that what we're digging up?

I I can't say. I I you might, you might have to google that out.

I'll figure that out. I was probably on a fund saver, so we'll work on that. Uh, Iowa looks too close for me. Don't like it. Polling average has Josh Turek, uh, head of Ashley Hinson by less than a point. Both candidates are at forty six. I hate polls. They're at forty six or forty seven, cause I feel like they always cut against us at the end. Um, there's a libertarian in the race who could siphon some votes away from the Republican.

I don't know how impactful that would be, but it's always a good thing for Democrats when your win number is like forty nine, uh, and and not fifty. Um, the Democrats I talk to are a little worried about Iowa. The best news I've heard from someone very in the know is that Josh and Hinson are tied. Republicans seem a little more bullish. What what is the number? What is the data telling you on on Iowa?

I. It's not the fifty first state if I'm a Democrat. Uh, that's what it's telling me. I I think Democrats could win there, I think Josh Schur could win there. Um, but it's not the race that I, you know, if if Democrats win Iowa, they are winning other states first to get them the majority in the United States Senate. Uh, I think the bigger story out of Iowa, to be honest with you, uh, is what's happened in that gubernatorial race, right?

What Rob's saying, and I, I I think that that's somebody, as I sort of project out of my own head and I go, there's someone who might be running for president one day. He's one of them. Look, Josh Schur has run a it seems to be a good campaign. Ashley Hinson, actually, in terms of the Republican campaigns, has run one of the better ones as well. Uh, I, I, I look at that race and I say, would it surprise me if Josh Schur win?

No, it wouldn't surprise me. But it's also the race where if I were a Democrat, I I, I would be more worried about that race in terms of the close race I'm looking at than any other. For no other reason, you know, we talk about polling misses. It's Iowa was home to the greatest polling miss, I think, in the last decade in terms of most notable.

got it. Uh, Rob's gonna hate us for mentioning him as a presidential candidate. The only time I think Rob's ever sent me a gruff text was when I mentioned him as a 2020 eight-er. And he's just like, Dude, come on, that this is not gonna happen. I don't want that. Speaking of the these governor's races, um, there are a bunch of states where there are these targeted Senate races and targeted governor's races. Uh, Gina Hinojosa in Texas, Amy Acton is running against Vivek Ramaswamy in Ohio, where Vivek is just, you know, in the gutter.

Um, Rob Sand in in Iowa that you just mentioned. Um, to what degree do you think we should expect governor and Senate races to be correlated? How much vote switching should we expect these days? What do you think?

It's certainly the highest, you know, look, Phil Scott, although there is some polling to suggest that Phil Scott may lose in Vermont, Republican governor of Vermont, but I think is the favorite in that race. That gives you an idea, right, that that that still there are states, um, that vote one way for, you know, federal races, and then in a statewide race can vote a completely other way. Uh, you, it's more than than you used to expect, but I, I wouldn't be surprised by, you know, split verdicts.

Texas is an example where I wouldn't be supply surprised by split verdict. I wouldn't be surprised that in Kansas, I wouldn't be surprised of it in Iowa. Um, I wouldn't be shocked by it in Ohio, although I think they'll probably both go Dem. Um, so I I I think that there could be, there could be some, uh, that that people still are willing to split their ticket. We saw it in 2022, um, we saw it in 2024.

Granted, you know, uh, the Republican candidate for governor in, uh, North Carolina in, uh, 2024 was not exactly the strongest candidate I have ever seen, but we, we, we saw it there as well.

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All right, let's talk about some of the kind of best case scenario for Democrats stretch Senate race states. So we got Kansas, South Carolina, where the New York Times has it tied, uh, Nebraska, Florida, Mississippi. Uh, can you rank some of those in terms of, like, likelihood of Democrats actually being able to win there and talk about what you're seeing in the data?

I I mean, I think Kansas is the one that's most likely to flip. Um, you know, for one,

why?

uh, a few reasons. Number one, it's the polling that we see out of there. Uh, I mean, th- there have been multiple polls now either showing a tie, a nominal advantage for Hamilton, or in the case of that Washington Post poll, oh, I, you know, you mentioned the write up at the top, uh, about it. Um, you know, they were s. They seem to be skeptical of their own data.

Yeah, they're very they're really struggling to get Republicans on the phone, essentially Correct, is the problem.

correct. That being said, you, you know, once fool me, one shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me, fo- you know, uh,

Can't get fooled again. et cetera, Yeah,

correct. Uh, you just see that data and you speak to Republicans and they don't think Roger Marshall has run a good campaign. And Adam Hamilton is well known. Uh, you know, uh, you know, pastor, et cetera, uh, fits the right profile in that state, seems to be more popular than not. Roger Marshall, the least popular Republican Senate nominee in Kansas this late in the campaign this century, for sure. You haven't seen polling like this, uh, and I looked it up, this late in the campaign for a Democrat, uh, in thirty plus years.

I was able to get all the way back to Sam Brownback's first run. I couldn't get any data further back than that. Uh, so I, I look at that data and I go, yes. And then I will also just note, you know, put the polling aside for a second, you know, I was interested in sort of Kansas's r- um, let's say journey in the last few presidential elections. And sort of, if you were to rank it out, right, which states are the most Republican versus the national vote?

Uh, Kansas used to r- re rank like ninth or tenth, and now it's closer to eighteenth or nineteenth. It has actually shifted to the left, even as it's still been voting for Republican for presidents. Uh, one way to put it is Texas, you know, went dem, uh, went Republican, voted for Donald Trump by thirteen points in 2024. Kansas went for Donald Trump by sixteen. Yeah, sixteen is slightly bigger than thirteen, but it ain't that much of a difference between the two of them.

what, what about South Carolina? Do you buy that? Like, Darlene Graham is obviously a terrible candidate, you know, she had one of the worst debate performances I've ever seen, where she was kind of like, I don't do foreign policy. Um, I, I could imagine a world where voters aren't thrilled to watch, you know, uh, uh, a senate seat be be treated like an heirloom that gets passed down in the family, uh, from Lindsey Graham to her.

But, like, what, what do you make of those numbers?

I mean, look, we've now seen a number of polls that show a show a close, but South Carolina is a racial very racially polarized state. It's one of those things, you know, when I think of Mississippi or Louisiana, you know, y- your South Carolina's when you sh, you know, you, you look at the polls, you see it's a racially polarized state. It tends to mean the state is very inelastic. Ergo, you know, the results are always within sort of a certain range.

I see a Democrat getting to forty five, forty six, 47% of the vote. The question is, can you really get to 50%? And that, to me, look, I think Andy Andrews has run a good campaign. Um, but again, is it possible? Sure, I don't think I would have imagined that we would have gotten a race that was a tie this late in the campaign, but it's, I think you're right, it's definitely one of those stretch stretch states.

So the last three states that I mentioned are, uh, nebraska, Florida, and Mississippi. We had this horrible Supreme Court decision, the Kelly decision, which sort of further gutted the Voting Rights Act. Uh, there seems to be some evidence that, uh, that decision is driving significant Black turnout, especially in southern states. Can you talk about what we're seeing in the early vote data and whether it gives you any hope in these states or g- should give me hope in these states?

yeah, I mean, the only thing I ever hope for is a Buffalo Bills Super Bowl. I'm gonna be honest with you,

This could be your year.

this could be this. The offense is absolutely tremendous, led by Josh Allen. The defense is a train wreck.

yep, my Patriots beat your ass too.

Yes, I I recall that, uh, it's, it's, it's one of those. I'm gonna quickly side sidetrack and then get back on the path. It's like Josh Allen has, like, one of the best records ever for when his defense gives up thirty or more points. He has won the majority of those games, I think,

that's crazy.

which is insane. It's insane. We'll see. I I hope springs eternal. I'll be up there for Thanksgiving. We'll see what happens.

nice new stadium. Congrats. It looks beautiful.

Thank you, thank you so much. The taxpayer money very well, uh, spent

I would love to throw you through a table sometime, which is a nice thing if for someone in Buffalo. That's what they do in Buffalo. You just air, you know, elbow we'll, we'll, drop the table.

we'll, we'll make it happen. Um, you know, so look, when I look at the early vote data, it's definitely the case that I see that Black turnout is up significantly. And obviously, if you're going to do well in a state like South Carolina, if you're a Democrat, you need the Black turnout to be sky high. Same thing for Mississippi, uh, same thing for Louisiana, which is now sort of being bandied about a little bit more than I think we would have been, we would would have thought.

Again, these are not close to toss up races necessarily, but on a very good night for Democrats, you know, it could go high. I would say, in all honesty, you know, when I think about the Black turnout being up, uh, yes, it's, it's, it's probably. It is certainly helpful in South Carolina, but I think I think actually two states and two races, um, where I think it could be particularly helpful, uh, or at least two states and three races, maybe.

I think of Georgia governor, Keisha Lance Bottoms, uh, trying to become the first Black governor of Georgia, first female governor of Georgia. Um, and John Ossoff obviously has been winning there rather easily in the polls, but, you know, we'll, uh, we'll Lance Bottoms come along with with him. Uh, well, I also think of Texas, which actually has a significant Black population as well. It shouldn't be, you know, uh, undervalued there. Uh, and I think of Talerico, yes, but I also think of the governor's race as well.

So look, uh, Democrats don't lose when Black turnout i it goes higher, and certainly the early vote data. And you know, the way I often often see it is when a group of voters believe that their rights to representation or voting is trying to be taken away from them, which I think many Black voters and certainly many Democrats feel is the case, then they tend to turn out in higher numbers. And certainly the early vote is, um, let's say, in line with that.

So over my years in politics, I have learned, uh, not to pay a lot of attention to early vote, not to pay a lot of attention to the first round of exit polls. Cause they tend to be misleading, or at least revised and off and break my heart. Um, but is there is there anything you're seeing in early vote numbers so far that kind of affirms what you've seen in polling or tells you a story that you find interesting?

I I think for the most part, early vote is, you know, one of those experiences where you can see what you want to see. Uh, I think, you know, you could go to Nevada, and obviously John Ralston has done the stuff out there, and we have a very long baseline. I think you could say that it is good for Democrats, uh, but overall, if I'm being honest, I l- uh, maybe I'm just not smart enough to understand the early vote data like some people are.

I doubt that.

Uh, I I tend to be like, this is just one, uh, uh, of many things. There's nothing another way to put it is there's been nothing inconsistent with what I see in the polling with what I see in the early vote data.

Just for listener, the hard thing to know is like, okay, you see this early vote data, it's heavily Democratic. Is that a sign of more Democratic votes to come, or are Democrats just voting early and we're kind of cannibalizing our election day vote? Because Donald Trump's voters, correct me if I'm wrong, Harry. I mean, Donald Trump likes to vote early by mail himself, so does his family, but Donald Trump voters tend to vote on election day and they come out in droves, and that's when we end up losing.

That has, at least since COVID, been the case. Uh, right, this is one of these things. One of my favorite little historical anecdotes is the reason that George Bush won the state of Florida in the 2,000 election was because he won the absentee vote. Uh, Al Gore actually won the in person election day vote in Florida in 2,000. So what is now might not necessarily be of what used to be. Uh, but no, that that, for the most part, is correct.

The one thing I will point out is that I do think the percentage of people voting by mail will be down this year. Um, and that is in part because Democrats are have, you know, are worried with all these new rules that have been put into place in certain states with some talk about, you know, the USPS and mail voting, um, that they will, in fact, say, you know what? Why risk it? Let's go vote in person, whether that be early election day.

And that kind of makes it also difficult to understand, which is, you know, the votes on election day count just as much as the early vote does. And in the midterm election especially, turnout is the name of the game. Uh, and so we don't know if the people who are sitting out now are gonna show up on election day or they're just gonna sit out altogether.

Yeah, good point. Okay, so anyone who's alive in 2020 knows that, uh, election night is no longer a thing. The counting can take days. Uh, I know this is an especially acute challenge for you because there's a scenario where, uh, some higher-up at CNN gets handcuffs, chains you to a desk, you don't get to go home for 3, maybe 4, maybe 5 days. W- when do you think we'll have a good sense of which direction things are heading, like, what are the key, like, timing inflection points for you as you're watching these results?

Yeah, I I'll tell you this much, which is maybe this is a bit of a surprise. Uh, you know, look, if the polling data is right, that is, you know, assuming there isn't some last-minute October surprise in every state, and assuming that the polling now is what the polling is on mond- uh, a Monday, etcetera. Um, then to me, I look at it and I go, This may actually be a quote unquote early night.

That is, it won't last days. It lasts days if we're reliant on Alaska, or it's a, you know, a very tight race in Maine, where the vote can sometimes take a little bit of a while, and, you know, a c can can go into go into Wednesday, etcetera. Um, obviously, Alaska with its ranked choice voting, it's slow it's relatively slow to count to the other states, and then, yeah, and the ranked choice voting can take a while.

Um, I think if I if I am a person who's looking at this, I think 2, 3 AM, we should uh, we will very likely know what what what is going on, uh, espe- unless Michigan, you know, Michigan, we sometimes get those vote drops in from Detroit, uh, that could be the last thing we're looking at. But most of the states, they count relatively quickly. And more than that, we will know, you know, we'll get an early idea in Ohio, we will get an early idea in North Carolina, right?

We will get these early indicators, which will tend to suggest to us, uh, what exactly which way the the tide is going. I will Note, I I'll admit, I don't I haven't really watched Kansas election nights all that closely.

Nor have I. Nor have I, but I'm excited to try. Uh, final question for you. So we talked at the top about some of the challenges with response bias and pollsters reaching people, right? There both seem to be like more polling than ever before, but also this crisis with people not answering their phones and maybe now not answering online surveys. But at the same time, we have all this new data there's prediction markets and Kalshi and Polymarket, all this stuff.

So a as we roll through this election and into 2028, how are you thinking about the health of the kind of polling industry and data analytics, and how do you think it's gonna evolve as we get closer to, you know, maybe the most consequential election, uh, of our lifetimes in 2028?

Yes. Uh, every, uh uh, excuse Because Me, every

They all are.

They all are. They're all the most consequential election. I I've only been hearing that now for forever. Although, granted, I really wonder if in, like, 1996, you know, they were like, Oh, yeah, this is the most consequential election ever between Bob Dole and Bill Clinton, which had, like, no voter turnout. I I'm Fairly sure most people Were like, Eh, whatever. I think there's a whole Simpsons about that, by the way. Um look, I I think of it in a few ways.

One, which is, you know, if you look at the horse race polling, it actually hasn't become less accurate over time, really. Yes, 2020, it was a big error, or historically speaking, but 2024 actually was perfectly fine. What has happened is that the races have just simply put become significantly closer. You know, every national presidential election, the national popular vote has been within single digits since 1988. That is the longest such stretch since we started counting the popular vote really on a nationwide scale back in 1824.

Um, so as long as we keep getting close elections, I think a skeptical eye towards the polling is worthwhile. And I'll also note, I'm gonna be interested to see once assuming Trump does not try to run for a third term and isn't on the ballot, whether or not those biases still exist. That being said, I tend to take a sort of worldview of this is I look at all of the data. I look at the all the data.

I look at the polling data. I look at the prediction market data. I look at the registration data. I look at the national indicators. I'm of the belief that the more data that you have in there, the better. And then you can sort of weight up and weight down what you don't think is is worthwhile in terms of the polls themselves and the individual polls. Yeah, I think I'm gonna take a skeptical eye if I, you know, go to the website and the persons and the people who are supposedly running the polls don't have pictures or maybe not names.

I think that's generally a pretty good idea. Um, but, uh, look, I it's it's sort of the wild west, but I I I welcome people if they wanna try and go and poll. But, you know what? I deserve the right to then say, You know what? I gotta be honest, uh, I don't necessarily, uh, think that the individual who has no experience of this and, uh, isn't willing to show their face, I'm not gonna use their data.

Should I do a little DIY polling myself? Just call a bunch of people, ask them questions randomly?

You know, you you can certainly, uh, certainly try. If nothing else, look, you can you can do your own poll, but I I tend to s I I tend to think if you call the people you know, they'll probably be more, Uh, left-leaning, uh, than than than not. It might not be

I'm doing a random digit dial. What are you talking Oh, you're About? Doing a random digit Of course. Dial? Like, you Yeah, yeah.

Know, if you if you call cells, I believe, uh, you still have to do it yourself. You can't get one of those Automa- automated things, which I believe you can still only do with, uh, landlines.

The the final frontier and do your own research,

That's right.

Uh, the narrative. Uh, Harry, thank you so much for joining the show. Good luck to you on, uh, the next couple days. Good luck to your Buffalo Bills. But not that much luck.

Here's the thing. I I will sacrifice a week of sleep for a Bills Super Bowl title. Because where else would you rather be than right here right now is what I'd be saying is if the Bills are in the Super Bowl.

Amen to that. All right, that's it from us. Jon Lovett, Favre, and I will be back with you on election day.