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A Landslide Victory for Democrats

4 Nov 2026 · 37m · Michael Barbaro · 20 quoted facts

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In brief

The Daily's election-night conversation argues that Democrats won the 2026 midterms as a wholesale rejection of President Trump, not a vote for any one Democrat. Nate Cohn, Lisa Lair and Shane Goldmacher describe a Democratic sweep of the House and Senate. They say Trump's own policies, especially prices and tariffs, broke apart the voting coalition he built.

The central tension is that Democrats won big without being clearly trusted, while Republicans are trapped by Trump. Both a progressive wing and a centrist wing claim victory, and the party faces fights over its direction. Republicans cannot win a primary without Trump or a general election with him. The episode closes with Trump saying he will accept the results and with a major announced cut to aid to Israel.

Key insights

  1. Democrats' margin was historic, not just a wave

    Nate Cohn said Democrats were favored to win the national vote by thirteen points, the largest since at least 1976 and above the ten-point win in 2008. They also flipped Senate seats the president had won by double digits.

  2. Trump's own policies eroded his coalition

    Lisa Lair argued Iowa farmers were hurt by higher diesel, tariff-inflated equipment costs and pricier feed and fertilizer. In her telling, Trump's economic conditions turned his own voters against him.

  3. Democrats did better in the Sunbelt than the Midwest

    Cohn noted strong results in Texas, Georgia and North Carolina but weaker ones in Michigan, Minnesota and Maine. He suggested a North-South realignment, with a higher Democratic ceiling in the South.

  4. The win doesn't settle Democrats' internal fight

    Progressives point to a near-win by a Democratic socialist in Florida, while centrists point to wins in red states by post-partisan candidates. Lair warned that big tents can cause big intra-party fights.

  5. Republicans are stuck in a Trump trap

    A majority of Republican voters still wanted to continue in Trump's direction, per a Times poll cited by Cohn, even though two-thirds of the country wants something different. That makes it hard for the party to move on, and Goldmacher flagged JD Vance as the clearest example.

Questions

How big was the Democratic win in the midterm elections?

Nate Cohn said Democrats won the House and had at least fifty-four Senate seats, with the national vote leaning toward them by about thirteen points. He said that is the largest margin since at least 1976.

Why did Republicans lose so badly, according to the hosts?

They described it mainly as a rejection of President Trump and his party's loyalty to him, driven by anger over prices, gas, tariffs and the war in Iran. Republicans lost both from low turnout and from Trump voters switching to Democrats.

What does a 'collapse of the Republican coalition' mean?

Cohn meant the mix of voters Trump assembled, including working-class, younger and non-white voters, abandoned the party. Only a core of loyal Trump supporters was left.

Does this mean Democrats are now popular?

Not necessarily. Cohn said Democrats are benefiting from Trump's unpopularity, and Lisa Lair said polls show voters are still mixed about trusting the national Democratic Party.

What did Trump say after the election?

In a phone call with Times reporters, Trump said he was willing to accept the results and work with the Democrats, though he claimed he would have done better had he been on the ballot. Separately, he said US aid to Israel would be cut off at the end of the year.

Facts

Stated by the speakers. Each quote matches the transcript, which shows what was said, not that it is true.

Nate Cohn said Democrats would win at least fifty-four Senate seats, including at least five the president won by double digits.

“the Democrats will win at least fifty-four seats in the Senate, including at least five seats that the president won by double digits in the last election.”

0:02:56 · Speaker 1 · Senate seats · 2026

Nate Cohn said Democrat Annie Andrews won South Carolina's Senate race by nearly five points.

“She won by nearly five points. That is extraordinary.”

0:05:55 · Speaker 1 · South Carolina · 2026

Nate Cohn said Republican Senate candidate Darlene Graham, whom he described as anointed by Donald Trump to replace Lindsey Graham, lost in South Carolina.

“the Republican candidate, Darlene Graham, who was essentially anointed by Donald Trump to replace her brother, Lindsey Graham.”

0:05:55 · Speaker 1 · Senate race · 2026

Shane Goldmacher said Democrat Gina Hinojosa defeated Texas Governor Greg Abbott, who had served more than a decade.

“the Democratic candidate for governor, Gina Hinojosa, who beat a fixture of Texas politics, Greg Abbott, who's been governor for more than a decade, is out of power.”

0:07:41 · Speaker 2 · Texas governor · 2026

Despite a Republican-drawn redistricting, Democrats won the districts along Texas's entire border with Mexico, according to the speaker.

“Texas redrew its congressional districts specifically to elect more Republicans, and specifically all along the border, the entire Texas border with Mexico is going to be represented by Democrats”

0:08:44 · Speaker 1 · Redistricting · 2026

The speaker said Democrats had passed the 218 seats needed to win the House and were heading toward a historically large majority.

“They have surpassed the 218 seats that they need, and they're on their way to potentially historically large majorities”

0:10:40 · Speaker 2 · House majority · 2026

Nate Cohn said the Times estimates favored Democrats to win the national vote by thirteen points.

“when we entered this room, the Democrats were favored in our estimates to win the national vote by thirteen points.”

0:11:11 · Speaker 1 · Vote margin · 2026

Nate Cohn said the previous recent high for Democrats was a ten-point win in the 2008 House vote.

“The highest in recent memory was when the Democrats won by ten in 2008 in the House vote.”

0:11:11 · Speaker 1 · Vote margin · 2008

Nate Cohn said Mississippi's Senate race was essentially tied and that provisional ballots there have leaned Democratic in the past.

“where the race is essentially tied and where, in the past, provisional ballots have leaned Democratic.”

0:09:47 · Speaker 1 · Mississippi Senate · 2026

In Iowa, Democrats won the governorship and a Senate seat and flipped three of four House seats, according to the speaker.

“In Iowa, you had Democrats win the governor's mansion, the Senate seat, and flip three of the four congressional seats.”

0:12:46 · Speaker 2 · Iowa · 2026

Lisa Lair said Democrat Amy Acton led Republican Vivek Ramaswamy by about six points in Ohio's governor race.

“she is up by right now by six points, a margin that could grow.”

0:15:41 · Speaker 2 · Ohio governor · 2026

Lisa Lair said Democrat Rob Sand won Iowa's governor race by about ten points.

“Rob Sand has won by looks like ten points or so.”

0:16:04 · Speaker 2 · Iowa governor · 2026

A speaker said Keisha Lance Bottoms was about to become the first Black woman governor in American history, winning Georgia.

“Keisha Lance Bottoms is about to become the first Black woman in American history to ever be a governor.”

0:16:40 · Speaker 4 · Georgia governor · 2026

Nate Cohn said Democrats performed especially well in Sunbelt battleground states such as North Carolina, Georgia and Texas.

“the Democrats did really well in a lot of potential Sunbelt battleground states like North Carolina, Georgia and Texas.”

0:17:21 · Speaker 1 · Sunbelt · 2026

Lisa Lair said Democrats in Minnesota, Michigan and Maine ran self-described progressives, unlike the post-partisan candidates in Kansas, Texas and Iowa.

“those are states where Democrats ran self-proclaimed progressives, candidates who saw themselves on the more left flank of the party”

0:20:13 · Speaker 2 · Democratic candidates · 2026

Nate Cohn said Donald Trump was the least popular political figure heading into a midterm since 1946 and his party suffered its worst drubbing in half a century.

“now he's the least popular political figure heading into a midterm since 1946, and his party just suffered the worst drubbing in a half century.”

0:25:28 · Speaker 1 · Trump popularity · 2026

Nate Cohn cited a Times poll in which a majority of Republicans wanted the party to continue in Trump's direction.

“In our last poll, a majority of Republicans still said they wanted to see the Republican Party continue in the Trump direction”

0:26:14 · Speaker 1 · Republican voters · 2026

Michael Barbaro reported that Trump conceded higher gas prices from the war he launched against Iran had upset voters.

“Trump conceded that higher gas prices from the war he launched against Iran had upset voters.”

0:32:53 · Michael Barbaro · Iran war · 2026

In a phone call with Times reporters, Trump said he was willing to accept the midterm election results.

“I do, but I am absolutely willing to accept those results.”

0:33:50 · Speaker 1 · Election results · 2026

Donald Trump said most American aid to Israel, about $4 billion, would be cut off at the end of the year.

“President Trump said that the bulk of American aid to Israel, about $4 billion, would be cut off at the end of this year.”

0:35:32 · Michael Barbaro · Israel aid · 2026

Chapters

  1. 0:02:47A blue tsunami sweeps the nation

    The hosts describe the scale of the Democratic victory in historic terms. It sets up the rest of the night's analysis.

    “It's the largest victory in the national popular vote since at least 1976.”
  2. 0:05:55South Carolina and Texas flip shock the map

    Red-state results show the win went beyond expected battlegrounds. Trump's endorsement appeared to backfire.

    “She won by nearly five points. That is extraordinary.”
  3. 0:10:40Counting up the Senate and House

    Democrats pass the threshold for the House and head toward a large Senate majority. The count shows how wide the sweep was.

    “They have surpassed the 218 seats that they need”
  4. 0:11:49The collapse of the Republican coalition

    Cohn and Lair explain how turnout and vote-switching broke Trump's coalition, with Iowa as an example.

    “this is a total collapse of the Republican coalition.”
  5. 0:16:40Governor's races and the Sunbelt shift

    Wins in Ohio, Iowa, Texas and Georgia hint that the South may be Democrats' biggest opportunity.

    “Keisha Lance Bottoms is about to become the first Black woman”
  6. 0:21:04A big tent and a looming intra-party fight

    Progressive and post-partisan Democrats both won, which leaves the party's direction unresolved.

    “But sometimes big tents can cause big intra-party fights underneath them.”
  7. 0:28:16Republicans caught in the Trump trap

    The president's party cannot do without him in primaries but cannot win general elections with him.

    “You could not win a Republican primary this year without President Trump”
  8. 0:29:39The big questions for 2028

    Each guest names the question that will define the next two years for both parties.

    “what does the Democratic Party become?”
  9. 0:33:50Trump says he will accept the results

    In a phone call, Trump reacts to the losses and says he will work with Democrats.

    “I am absolutely willing to accept those results.”
  10. 0:35:32Trump to cut US aid to Israel

    News of a major foreign policy change tied to a Democratic talking point.

    “taking away a powerful talking point from the left wing”

Transcript

0:00:00
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0:00:27
Speaker 7

We just took back Texas.

0:00:33
Speaker 6

So South Carolina, I think we just made some history.

0:00:38
Speaker 7

Thank you so much, Maine. Working people did it.

0:00:42
Speaker 4

Iowa, we have proven that the impossible was possible.

0:00:50
Michael Barbaro

From the New York Times, I'm Michael Barbaro. This is The Daily. On Tuesday night, the blue wave that polls predicted and the president's unpopularity foreshadowed landed with extraordinary force across the United States as Democrats flipped control of both the House and the Senate.

0:01:13
Speaker 4

My name is Abdurrahman Muhammad Is-Sayyid. And I am so proud and honored to stand here as your Senator-elect from the great state of Michigan.

0:01:32
Michael Barbaro

Today, chief political analyst Nate Cohn and national political correspondents Lisa Lair and Shane Goldmacher take us inside a historic shift in power and a new era of American politics.

0:01:48
Speaker 4

In sweeping and decisive victories, the American people have rebuked the depravity, corruption, And incompetence of the failed, lame duck president Donald J. Trump.

0:02:07
Michael Barbaro

It's Wednesday, November fourth.

0:02:13
Speaker 2

Good morning.

0:02:15
Michael Barbaro

I mean, it's one in it's one a.m.

0:02:18
Speaker 2

It's early.

0:02:18
Speaker 1

It is early.

0:02:19
Michael Barbaro

It's definitely. We're doing great. Didn't It's definitely you think we'd be Wednesday morning. doing this at Oh, I thought we

0:02:22
Speaker 2

two thirty?

0:02:22
Michael Barbaro

would be. I thought we'd be taping this at three in the morning.

0:02:23
Speaker 2

Yeah, me too.

0:02:25
Michael Barbaro

This night required no later than one a.m. Our so big and so decisive and so quick was the result. Uh, should we get started? Let's All right, Nate, Michael, Shane, Lisa, hello.

0:02:40
Speaker 1

thank you. Hi.

0:02:41
Michael Barbaro

Nate, fill in the blank for me. Tonight was what A tsunami, a blue tsunami

0:02:47
Speaker 1

a blue tsunami. It's the largest victory in the national popular vote since at least 1976.

0:02:55
Michael Barbaro

in a midterm?

0:02:56
Speaker 1

In any congressional election, the Democrats will win at least fifty-four seats in the Senate, including at least five seats that the president won by double digits in the last election. No party has managed to flip so many seats that are so safely in the other side's hands. And as far back as I looked, and I went back to 1974, I could have gone further, but that seemed far enough to me. So this is big.

0:03:21
Michael Barbaro

Lisa, tonight was what?

0:03:24
Speaker 2

Uh, tonight was a prairie fire that just swept the nation, a wildfire. I I'm just over the water analogies.

0:03:32
Michael Barbaro

Yeah, Nate Nate tortured it Yes, Nate on Tuesdays daily.

0:03:35
Speaker 2

Nate went on a long journey with it. And You're I think you're going to We'll go be older

0:03:37
Speaker 1

to fire now. by the time we I can go on fire.

0:03:39
Speaker 2

fi yeah, okay. I think, well, I also think the water doesn't capture the level of anger of Americans over all these prices and gas prices and housing prices and everything else. And so it felt like

0:03:50
Michael Barbaro

a Democratic wildfire. a Democratic wildfire. Yeah, Shane, tonight was rough for you.

0:03:57
Speaker 1

I think it was a punishment. I think that you see the kind of thoroughness that Nate is describing, and it becomes less about the individual Democratic candidates or even the Democratic Party. This is a reaction and a rejection of President Trump and his approach and his party's complete bended knee to his approach for the last two years.

0:04:22
Michael Barbaro

In summary, a big old spanking punishment. Okay, I wanna talk about where and how this tsunami wildfire punishment unfolded throughout the night because there was quite a dramatic chronology and arc to it. Nate, when did you realize what was happening on Tuesday night?

0:04:41
Speaker 1

Well, it was clear Democrats were overperforming immediately, even in states like Florida.

0:04:45
Michael Barbaro

Where a Democratic socialist was neck and neck throughout the night with a Republican in a really red state.

0:04:52
Speaker 1

that's right, but Florida's been close before. Polls showed that Florida could be close. The thing that told me that we weren't just gonna have a big blue wave, but a tsunami or a wildfire was not too long after that, at maybe seven twenty. When in South Carolina, a state that was certainly thought to be competitive, but very few people really believed would be likely to flip Democratic. When the early vote was just plainly better for Democrat Annie Andrews, then she needed to win The Senate candidate the Senate candidate, Democrat Annie Andrews.

0:05:26

And that meant that we were looking at Democrats not merely winning the states that we had been talking about for the last few months, like Ohio and even Texas or Kansas, but another tier beyond that, like South Carolina, and not just the outer two.

0:05:40
Michael Barbaro

limits of Trump plus ten, plus fifteen red states that once Nearly were inconceivable.

0:05:44
Speaker 1

twenty, nearly twenty in South Carolina's case.

0:05:48
Michael Barbaro

Trump was plus twenty in South Carolina.

0:05:49
Speaker 1

I don't think he was plus twenty, but he was close, maybe eighteen. And here, a Democratic And was going to

0:05:54
Michael Barbaro

candidate for Senate has has win just prevailed,

0:05:55
Speaker 1

and didn't just prevail, but prevailed with room to spare. She won by nearly five points. That is extraordinary. And on the topic of a repudiation of Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, Darlene Graham, who was essentially anointed by Donald Trump to replace her brother, Lindsey Graham. Her greatest sin in this election is that she was anointed by the president, and that is not what the country was looking to support.

0:06:17
Michael Barbaro

right? Usually in a red state like South Carolina, Trump as kingmaker is the beginning and the end of the conversation. In this case, that wasn't the story at all. It seemed to backfire. And that was the case, right, Shane? In many of these key Senate races where the Republicans lost and the Democrats prevailed.

0:06:40
Speaker 2

I mean, the bad news for me as a political junkie and a political reporter who loves to dive into, like, how the races were run and what were the decisions? And it there's just one story here, and it's the story of the country rejecting Trump and Republicans. And it's pretty simple. And that's how you end up losing in Texas by potentially close to double digits. It's how you lose by the remarkable margin that Nate's talking about in South Carolina.

0:07:08

It's how you get a new senator from Kansas for the first time in nearly a hundred years, and you

0:07:15
Michael Barbaro

A Democratic candidate.

0:07:16
Speaker 4

Democrat senator in Kansas, and it's how you oust probably the most enduring moderate Republican in Maine.

0:07:22
Michael Barbaro

Let me have you just focus for a moment longer on Texas, Shane, because for the longest time on this show, we debated how real the possibility was that James Talerico could actually pull off a victory there. And he not only pulled off a victory, he pulled off a victory whose scale is a little bit hard to comprehend.

0:07:41
Speaker 2

yeah, you see in the regional shifts there, a complete reversal of things that we've talked about, which is the Latino shift toward Trump. It went back to the Democrats and even more. You see him winning in a way that, yeah, was basically unfathomable. And yes, we've talked that his opponent, Ken Paxton, was a particularly weak Republican candidate, the state attorney general who has faced a series of scandals. But what you also see is that it wasn't just Talerico winning, but the Democratic candidate for governor, Gina Hinojosa, who beat a fixture of Texas politics, Greg Abbott, who's been governor for more than a decade, is out of power.

0:08:20

And so Democrats don't just have a Senate seat, they control the governor's office. Yeah, and I think that what those results show us is how much broader this is than any individual candidate. The scale of the wins shows you that this is not about Just Kevin Ken Paxton, Ac- and it's not about Roger Marshall, who wasn't a particularly strong candidate in Kansas. You know, it's not about any individual Republican. It is just this wholesale repudiation.

0:08:44
Speaker 1

I mean, Texas redrew its congressional districts specifically to elect more Republicans, and specifically all along the border, the entire Texas border with Mexico is going to be represented by Democrats, including one who won one of those districts. That was just a reach that no one expected them to even be competing in, and there it has a new congress member who's a Democrat.

0:09:08
Michael Barbaro

Let me just put some math forward for the listener at this hour. Nate, Democrats have won how many Senate seats? And then I want to turn Shane and Lisa over to where things stand in the House before we then talk about some of the governor's races around the country too. Senate Nate.

0:09:25
Speaker 1

The Democrats have fifty-four seats at this hour. They won North Carolina, Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and I think that gets me to the number I need. But I might be remembering another one. Not quite called yet, Michigan, but trending toward Not a flip,

0:09:41
Speaker 4

that fifty-four. but yeah, and um,

0:09:43
Speaker 2

and Alaska, check back with us in two months. you know, Alaska No, not two months.

0:09:47
Speaker 1

will find out in out in a while, and it's also worth noting we may find out in a while about Mississippi at this hour, where the race is essentially tied and where, in the past, provisional ballots have leaned Democratic. And therefore, I think I could make an argument that the Democrat could realistically flip that state as well, which could give the Democrats, if everything went their way from here, fifty-six seats in the Senate.

0:10:10
Michael Barbaro

which would represent flipping picking up how many seats?

0:10:13
Speaker 1

That's a there's a lot for me to count at this hour, Michael. What? They've flipped seven, they Right? have flipped seven. They They have flipped.

0:10:19
Speaker 7

could get up to nine.

0:10:20
Michael Barbaro

A huge number. Shane in the house, just bring us at one thirty eight a.m. up to date where we are with I mean, Democratic control of the house.

0:10:29
Speaker 1

because podcasts are a visual medium, I have a blue Sharpie that I circle all of the house districts as they get called, and you will notice

0:10:37
Michael Barbaro

A lot of blue circles. there are basically

0:10:40
Speaker 2

No red circles anywhere on any of the competitive races. And so the Democrats have won the House majority. They have surpassed the 218 seats that they need, and they're on their way to potentially historically large majorities, probably the largest since the beginning of the Obama era, which took two successive waves to get to. Nate may have more up-to-date numbers on the scale of the national popular vote, but there isn't a competitive House race right now where the Democrats are losing.

0:11:11
Speaker 1

hm, hm. I can think of one Florida, sort of Maine, too, has been on my radar. But when we entered this room, the Democrats were favored in our estimates to win the national vote by thirteen points. So, again, that's the largest margin since at least 1976. The highest in recent memory was when the Democrats won by ten in 2008 in the House vote. So this is a real notch up from anything that we've seen in in my lifetime.

0:11:37
Michael Barbaro

I want to understand what happened to Republican voters, as best you all can tell. Did they stay home, or did they turn around and vote for Democrats in the huge numbers that we think they might have?

0:11:49
Speaker 1

The answer is both. It's clear from the states where we have great data, like Florida and New Jersey and Nevada, that the Democrats had a much better turnout than any election in those states in recent memory. And it's also clear from the same states and other states that many people who are registered as Republicans and voted for Donald Trump voted for the Democratic candidate. Stepping back for a second, this is a total collapse of the Republican coalition.

0:12:13

There is no Republican coalition tonight. There was an old Republican coalition that had the support of affluent college graduates in white collar suburbs that they traded away to the Democrats a decade ago in exchange for support among working class voters and younger voters and non white voters. And that coalition, that new Trump coalition, not only abandoned them, it's even more democratic than it's ever been before. I would guess the Democrats won seventy plus percent of young voters.

0:12:42

There is nothing left for the Republicans, and that's how you get a wipeout across the map.

0:12:46
Speaker 2

I want to talk about Iowa. I understand it's not the prettiest bell at the ball like Texas, but it, to me, it is so interesting of those kinds of changing coalition politics. In Iowa, you had Democrats win the governor's mansion, the Senate seat, and flip three of the four congressional seats. Why did that happen? Well, guess what? There's a lot of in Iowa, as you know, I know you've spent farmers a lot of time who voted for Trump there.

0:13:10

Farmers who voted for Trump repeatedly, three times over, right? And those farmers were just their bottom line was hurt again and again. They're hurt by the increase in diesel prices, they're hurt by the tariffs, which make the equipment more expensive. The feed is more expensive cause of the war in Iran, the fertilizer is more expensive

0:13:27
Michael Barbaro

because of the tariffs.

0:13:27
Speaker 2

because of the tariffs. And there is just such a direct connection between President Trump's policies and the fall of his coalition. And I, you know, I don't know that you always see that, right? We always talk about presidents don't control macroeconomic trends, but they get credit or they're blamed for the economy. In this case, actually, President Trump did create the atmosphere, uneconomic conditions that turned his voters against him. And so it's not only that the Republican coalition, as Nate rightfully points out, doesn't exist in these elections.

0:13:59

It's that Trump, the guy who created this new Republican Party,

0:14:03
Michael Barbaro

Tore it apart. through his policies, He personally

0:14:05
Speaker 2

he is personally responsible for tearing it apart. That is really a remarkable political story. And, you It's an accomplishment know,

0:14:11
Michael Barbaro

to have ever put it together. It's in its own way, perversely, as much an accomplishment to have disassembled.

0:14:16
Speaker 2

and it's of course like the president Trump always does things in operatic scale, right? He puts together,

0:14:22
Michael Barbaro

Doesn't do a thing small.

0:14:22
Speaker 2

he doesn't do a thing small, and yet again, this is a thing he has not done small.

0:14:27
Speaker 1

I mean, I think if Texas is ground zero of this year's defeat for Republicans, I also think Iowa is really interesting because it is where they're gonna start their next nominating process. So the next Republican

0:14:40
Michael Barbaro

For president.

0:14:40
Speaker 1

presidential candidate is gonna need to win a caucus in that state where the Democrats just won all these things. And Yeah, let's stipulate E-

0:14:47
Michael Barbaro

in Iowa, Democrats improbably, given the events of the last decade, won a Senate seat and the governor's office. Am I missing anything? Three, they flipped Sorry.

0:14:57
Speaker 2

three congressional seats. Three congressional seats. Yeah,

0:14:59
Speaker 1

And so this is where the Trump success was in 2016. This was the big white working class push toward Trump all along the Mississippi River, and now all these people have swung all the way back, as Nate just described. And so the the Republican Party's actually gonna go to that place and be like, Okay, where do we go from here? Where they just lost everything.

0:15:18
Michael Barbaro

It seems worth spending a quick moment, I think, on some of the governor's races we saw around the country. Lisa and Shane, which one of those races stand out to you?

0:15:30
Speaker 2

well, of course, the race in Ohio between Amy Acton and Vivek Ramaswamy captured a lot of attention, as I know you. We've talked about on this show with the ad,

0:15:40
Michael Barbaro

Including her mother?

0:15:41
Speaker 2

including her estranged mother. And, um, and she is up by right now by six points, a margin that could grow. There's a couple more points of voters that have to be counted in Iowa. Rob Sand, who was this Democratic star from the moment he announced, he was a Democrat who attempted to run this post-partisan campaign that a lot of other candidates sort of emulated.

0:16:03
Michael Barbaro

and Rob Sand has won.

0:16:04
Speaker 2

Rob Sand has won by looks like ten points or so. And then the other big win is, of course, in Texas, where Gina Hinojosa bested Greg Abbott, who, as Shane pointed out, is really a bastion of that state's Republican Party. You know, it was interesting, cause a in a lot of these places, there had been a lot of discussion on ticket splitters.

0:16:23
Michael Barbaro

This would be the idea that in Texas, you could vote for James Talerico as a Democratic candidate for Senate, but then you still might vote for Greg Abbott as governor.

0:16:29
Speaker 2

right, and we really didn't see that. We just saw Democrats winning. So that, again, is just another thing that speaks to, like, the scale of the winds I think the here. most interesting

0:16:40
Speaker 4

Governor's race outside of Texas is in Georgia, where Keisha Lance Bottoms is about to become the first Black woman in American history to ever be a governor. And she did it by a wide margin. The conversation in political circles have been, Oh, can John Ossoff's win drag her over the line? She's winning comfortably in what had been a perennial swing state for Democrats. And it really raises the question of is Georgia changing at this moment? Because that just hasn't happened before.

0:17:12

He's winning by easily into the double digits, and she's winning comfortably. This is going to dramatically change, like Texas, a state's entire complexion.

0:17:21
Speaker 1

we may be getting a little bit ahead of ourselves here, but it is worth noting that the Democrats did really well in a lot of potential Sunbelt battleground states like North Carolina, Georgia and Texas. Many of their weakest performances were in more traditional northern white battleground states like Minnesota or Michigan or Maine. And I'm not saying they did badly in those states tonight, and there are candidate factors to consider as well. But it's worth stepping back for a second and imagining what someone would have said ten years ago if I told them that the Democrats were gonna do a lot better in Texas than Michigan and North Carolina and Georgia than Maine and Minnesota.

0:17:55

There is something happening here in the Sunbelt, and it may be where the Democratic Party's next opportunity is as we look at the wreckage of the Trump coalition at this low point in Trump's presidency.

0:18:18
Michael Barbaro

We'll be right back.

0:18:23
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0:18:50
Speaker 4

I'm Peter Baker. I'm chief White House correspondent for The New York Times. I've covered the presidency of the United States, and I've covered every president since 1996. The pressure on an independent press today feels greater than at any time I've seen it in four decades as a journalist. All that pressure, though, is just a reminder of why journalism matters. Our job is to bring home facts, help our readers understand what's happening, regardless of what the consequences may be to us.

0:19:15

And if they punish us, so be it. We will still go out there and report as honestly and aggressively and fairly and truthfully as we can. I mean, look, if The New York Times were not at the White House asking the hard questions, looking for stories behind the stories, trying to understand what's going on, it's possible these questions don't get asked. Independent reporting requires resources. You can support it by subscribing to The New York Times at nytimes dot com slash subscribe.

0:19:46
Michael Barbaro

Lisa, you wanted to respond to something Nate said right before the break. Nate, correct me if I'm wrong. It seemed to be that in the Northeast and the Upper Midwest, some of the Democratic candidates leads and even their victories were not as big as a place like the Sunbelt. And I wonder if it's because the candidates running in the Northeast, the Upper Midwest, the Democrats tended to be more progressive.

0:20:13
Speaker 2

Yeah, I think Nate was talking about the difference between how candidates fared in the Sunbelt and sort of these northern states, Minnesota, Michigan and Maine. And I think it is worth pointing out that those are states where Democrats ran self-proclaimed progressives, candidates who saw themselves on the more left flank of the party, and the candidates who ran in places like Kansas and Texas and Iowa saw themselves as post-partisan. That they tried to put distance between themselves and the Democratic National brand, they cast themselves as centrists, as people who want to work across the aisle.

0:20:46

So you have two different brands of Democrat, really, who won tonight. And I think, uh, part of what you're seeing is a big Democratic tent, which is of course what Democrats have wanted and talked about wanting since not they lost,

0:20:58
Michael Barbaro

let mis tests letting lots of different kinds of Democrats run for the places where they're running.

0:21:04
Speaker 2

But sometimes big tents can cause big intra-party fights underneath them. So I think we'll see a continuation of this debate that Democrats have been having at this point for many years over what the direction of their party should be. In a midterm, it's enough to just run against a unpopular president. Presidential campaigns are contests about the future of the country, and Democrats will need a vision, a shared vision to put forward in those races, and we'll see them fight it out over what that should be over right, the the next year.

0:21:33
Michael Barbaro

Democratic victory you're saying basically doesn't necessarily resolve any of the big internal questions and battles inside the party.

0:21:39
Speaker 1

I think that there is a North and South realignment happening, and you can really see it tonight. That the Democratic Party's ceiling is lower in the old industrial Midwest, in Ohio, where Sherrod Brown had been a popular Democrat forever and is retaking a seat in the Senate, is not performing as strongly as some of these Democratic candidates in the South. So, uh, there seems to be a higher ceiling where John Ossoff is in Georgia than where the Democrats seem to be able to reach in that Upper Midwest area.

0:22:12

And I think that tells you a little bit about where the party's future could be.

0:22:15
Michael Barbaro

So I wonder if the results that we're talking about here would in any way tip the scales when it comes to this debate about progressive, democratic socialists in favor of the centrists. Or if that's just, like, not the right conclusion to draw, given the scale of Democrat.

0:22:32
Speaker 1

My text messages tonight would suggest that everybody is declaring victory, right? The the the left is saying we almost got a Democratic

0:22:40
Speaker 4

Socialist in Florida, right? And the centrists are saying, look at all the actual people who won all of these hard races. So everybody's declaring victory, and everybody has just enough to hang their hat on Hm, hm. that's right, Where, again, the election that's was not about the Democrats, the election Was about was the Republicans. The about

0:22:58
Speaker 1

contrarian take here is that no one should feel good about themselves. They're just benefiting from the least popular and president since 1946, and this is still a discredited party and that voters don't trust to solve the nation's Democrats and there's

0:23:08
Speaker 2

plenty of indicators of that in our own polling, right? Where you see that Trump is unpopular, Trump is unpopular, and Democrats have improved their numbers on a lot of issues, most centrally, like who is trusted to handle the economy, which is very important always and particularly important in this election. But when voters are asked questions about, you know, how much they trust the Democratic Party, is it too far to the left, too far to the right?

0:23:31

They're still pretty mixed on it. Yes, voters are voting, casting their ballots for Democratic candidates. Are they flocking to the National Democratic Party? I'm not sure we can draw that. I know we can't draw that conclusion quite yet.

0:23:43
Michael Barbaro

Well, one thing that happened tonight that, if you're a Democrat, seems like a very important and hopeful sign is that a new generation of especially Senator elects, a Senator James Talerico, a Senator John Ossoff, a Senator Abdul El Sayed, on and on. That has come up in the Trump era. They're so digitally native, they're so ubiquitous in the way that they campaign. This is a a future of the Democratic Party that no one was even thinking about five, six years ago.

0:24:18
Speaker 2

Yeah, I mean, now I think Democrats have a a wealth of people who could run for president. It's gonna be a packed race. They have a very, very stocked bench of candidates. And in some ways, it feels to me like the beginning of a new political era. If you sort of look at 2006, which was another great resurgent midterm year for Democrats. Ush- ushered in this era of Obama, which remade that party. The backlash to that ushered in Trump and the MAGA movement, which remade Republicans.

0:24:45

And now it feels as if we're at the end of that twenty year cycle, and we're at a point where both parties are gonna be looking forward to something new. Democrats have these new emerging stars. Republicans have to figure out who they are at the beginnings of what could be a post-Trump moment, although we all always hesitate to say that anything is ever post-Trump. It does feel now like he's a lame duck president. Republicans are gonna have to find a way forward to keep what's left of their coalition together.

0:25:15

So I do wonder if we're sort of at the beginnings of something new for both parties and for the country's politics.

0:25:21
Michael Barbaro

Where does this all leave the president's party, the president's movement? What is the state of MAGA this morning?

0:25:28
Speaker 1

What is the Republican Party this morning? You know, the Republican Party was destroyed by Donald Trump in 2016. It was reassembled around himself, and now he's the least popular political figure heading into a midterm since 1946, and his party just suffered the worst drubbing in a half century. Where do we stand right now at all?

0:25:45
Speaker 4

yeah. I think about how much we discussed the depth of the hole that the Democratic Party found itself in after 2024. And even in that hole, everybody knew they had one big bright light, which was this coming midterm election. the Republican Party today doesn't have that bright light. They have a wide open presidential primary without a clear leader, and it's harder to rebuild at that moment than it is when you can just unite around stopping Trump.

0:26:14
Speaker 1

Perhaps especially when the president still has a tremendous amount of clout within his party. In our last poll, a majority of Republicans still said they wanted to see the Republican Party continue in the Trump direction, even though two thirds of the country very much wants the Republican Party to do something completely different. So Donald Trump is still a huge limiting factor on the ability of the of the Republican Party to go in a new direction in the next two years.

0:26:36
Michael Barbaro

Nate, what you just described, this nub of what's left of the president's support, is what I think we've long understood to be a cult of personality. The coalition that you all at this table have said basically disintegrated tonight was what he borrowed and put together beyond that nub. And it was based on policies and promises. And on Tuesday night, a lot of voters of both parties felt that those promises were not kept, those policies hurt them, and they moved away from him.

0:27:10

But there still is, at the core, this group that won't move away from him. That probably keeps the rest of the party from being able to move away from him, too. Or no, Yeah, the that seems to be the central question.

0:27:22
Speaker 1

the the Republican Party is in a really tough spot. Donald Trump destroyed it as we knew it, and he remains the center of gravity. Everyone is stuck in orbit around him, even though it now feels like a political black hole for them that they can't escape from, even though they'd love to. I I think that the president has clearly lost, basically, the entire periphery of his coalition. All of the young and non white voters who put him over the top in 2024, many of the white working class voters that put him over the top in 2026, and even some of the moderate Republicans who maybe back Nikki Haley and long before Mitt Romney, who have been consistent Republicans

0:27:59

all along. And reduced him just to this core of MAGA super fans and the most consistent Republicans who would never consider voting for the Democratic Party. And the core problem is that may still be a majority of the Republican primary electorate, even The ones now.

0:28:13
Michael Barbaro

picking the candidates who run as Republicans.

0:28:16
Speaker 4

Think about this year. You could not win a Republican primary this year without President Trump, and then you could not win a general election with him. Hm, that's a Ugh,

0:28:28
Michael Barbaro

big old conundrum.

0:28:29
Speaker 4

That's the trap.

0:28:30
Michael Barbaro

Friends, it is two ten a.m. And as a final question to all three of you, I want you to talk about your big questions this morning. As we enter a new political landscape, maybe even a new political era, in which the United States House of Representatives, the United States Senate are comfortably controlled by Democrats in the final two years of President Trump's second and final term. What are the big questions you have in your head as we look forward to the next few months and the next two years?

0:29:01

Shane,

0:29:02
Speaker 4

I mean, I want to know about JD Vance.

0:29:04
Speaker 2

Oh, that's good.

0:29:05
Speaker 4

I think that nobody encapsulates that Trump trap more. He is the sitting vice president, the frontrunner to be the next nominee, and yet there is probably no one who can maneuver less away from Donald Trump Than JD Vance. And how does he navigate this moment coming months if he campaigns, as most people presume he will,

0:29:29
Michael Barbaro

Kamala Harris taught us a valuable for lesson about what happens when you are the closely It's aligned figure to an unpopular or declining political figure it's she's in the president you're under. experienced. I Lisa

0:29:39
Speaker 2

think one of the big questions is, what does the Democratic Party become? I think for a decade, they have organized themselves in opposition to Trump. He's been the biggest energizer for their voters, and that's been like a central organizing principle of being a Democrat. And now, for all the reasons we said, Trump is going to be declining in power, declining as an organizing force in our politics. And that leaves Democrats trying to figure out with all these wins, what does their party stand for and what is their coalition and who do they become in an era where Trump is no longer the dominant force?

0:30:16

If they can answer that question in a way that enough Americans like, they have a shot at the White House, and if they cannot answer that question,

0:30:23
Michael Barbaro

They don't.

0:30:23
Speaker 2

it's gonna be really hard to win in 2028.

0:30:25
Speaker 1

those were two great answers, and I on one for Democrats and one for Republicans. Let me

0:30:31
Michael Barbaro

It's not over, Nate.

0:30:31
Speaker 1

offer let me offer then the backdrop that maybe they'll both play off against as they try and chart their future. I'm interested to learn whether any Democrat offers a fundamentally different answer to what the nation's problems are. We have an argument from Democratic Socialists that says the party basically needs to move to the left. And we have a bunch of mainstream establishment Democrats who, in some ways, represent a continuation of the same Democratic message that we've heard in various forms since Obama.

0:31:01

And when I think back to the to the last time a party was really discredited after 2008, the Republicans really struggled to come up with something different. They kinda just tried to rerun being a Reagan Romney Republican in 2012, and it took Donald Trump coming up with a totally different theory of what the nation's problem was to break up this old system that had been kind of discredited. And I don't know whether a Democrat is gonna come up with that in 2028, much as no one came up with it for the Republicans in 2012.

0:31:33

But I think as we enter this new era of American politics, someone's gonna come up with that new theory and new message and new policies that will try and address whatever it is that's going to define American politics in the years ahead.

0:31:49
Michael Barbaro

And you think it could happen in this moment?

0:31:51
Speaker 1

Things are changing, and when things change, that's when politicians and politics have the opportunity to change. In response.

0:31:59
Michael Barbaro

Nate and Shane and Lisa, thank you for being here at this really, really late hour, early hour, depending on which way you see it. Appreciate your time.

0:32:11
Speaker 1

Thank you for having us.

0:32:11
Speaker 2

Thank you.

0:32:18
Speaker 4

I'm here with Erica Green. I'm doing

0:32:19
Speaker 6

Hello, Antarctica.

0:32:19
Speaker 7

good. Hi.

0:32:23
Michael Barbaro

On Tuesday night, my colleagues, White House correspondents Erica Green and Tyler Pager, spoke with President Trump by phone from the White House as the president was still processing his party's sweeping losses in the midterm election.

0:32:36
Speaker 7

I'm just looking at these results as I'm talking about to you. I I see that, see that, uh, Darlene lost. Wow.

0:32:43
Michael Barbaro

Including the defeat of the Republican Senate candidate in South Carolina, Darlene Graham.

0:32:49
Speaker 1

That's amazing.

0:32:50
Speaker 4

how do you think Lindsay would have done had he run?

0:32:53
Michael Barbaro

Trump conceded that higher gas prices from the war he launched against Iran had upset voters.

0:32:59
Speaker 1

they don't mind the Iran, but they probably weren't happy, they weren't happy with the Iran. So, you know, it's one of those things, but

0:33:07
Michael Barbaro

But he insisted that had he himself been on the ballot, Republicans would have performed far better in the election. everybody

0:33:14
Speaker 4

I was gonna say the same thing. I wasn't on the ballot

0:33:17
Speaker 1

two years ago, when I'm on the ballot, two years we won all of these states by a lot.

0:33:22
Michael Barbaro

Erika pushed Trump on one of the biggest questions hanging over the midterms. I just wanted

0:33:27
Speaker 6

to make sure, uh, you are prepared to accept the results of the election. You've talked a lot about oh, of course, integrity.

0:33:34
Speaker 1

yeah. No, I think I think the results were were, uh, fine from you mean, from the standpoint of of cheating.

0:33:43
Michael Barbaro

Despite the president's long history of denying electoral losses, Trump said that he would accept Tuesday's results.

0:33:50
Speaker 1

I do, but I am absolutely willing to accept those results. Yeah,

0:33:56
Michael Barbaro

And he said he was prepared to work with the new Democratic majorities in both the House and the Senate, even if they sought his testimony for congressional investigations into his administration.

0:34:09
Speaker 1

we'll work with the Democrats, and, uh, we'll, you know, look forward to working with them. We'll probably work something out.

0:34:17
Speaker 4

Thank you, Mr. President, for your time.

0:34:18
Speaker 1

Okay, thank you. I'll have a good time. Bye. Bye.

0:34:27
Michael Barbaro

We'll be right back.

0:34:27
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0:35:02
Speaker 6

This week on the Wirecutter show, you don't need to be afraid of a pressure cooker.

0:35:07
Speaker 2

We are in the second generation phase of stovetop pressure cookers. So if you walk away and you leave it over too high of heat, it's gonna vent itself.

0:35:18
Speaker 6

We're talking about one pot meals and all the ways to make them. Find the Wirecutter show on the New York Times app or wherever you like to listen.

0:35:32
Michael Barbaro

Here's what else you need to know today. In a potentially major change to U.S. foreign policy, President Trump said that the bulk of American aid to Israel, about $4 billion, would be cut off at the end of this year. In an election day interview with Fox News, Trump described his motivation for the change as taking away a powerful talking point from the left wing of the Democratic Party, including Senator-elect Abdul El Sayed of Michigan.

0:36:03
Speaker 1

Why? Because they don't need it, Brian. I mean, I ask them because they don't need it, and because why should we, uh, suffer the slings from, uh, lunatics like an El Sciaj, when they don't need it? It's a bad, it's a bad talking point.

0:36:19
Michael Barbaro

In the aftermath of the October seventh attacks and Israel's response in Gaza, both Democratic lawmakers and candidates have become increasingly critical of U.S. military aid to Israel. Trump said that the decision to cut off the aid was made with the consent of Israel's leadership, but the announcement appeared to catch some Israeli officials by surprise. Today's episode was produced by Anna Foley, Stella Tan and Jessica Chung. It was edited by Rachel Quester and Devin Taylor, with help from Paige Cowett.

0:36:55

Contains music by Aleshiba Etoop and Dan Powell, and was engineered by Alyssa Moxley and Chris Wood. Our theme music is by Wonderly. Special thanks to Tyler Pager and Erica Green. That's it for the Daily. I'm Michael Barbaro. See you tomorrow.

0:37:25
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