In brief
Hispanic construction-industry owners in Texas's Rio Grande Valley helped deliver Republican wins in 2024. They are now turning on President Trump because immigration raids are removing the skilled, mostly undocumented workers their businesses depend on. The episode argues that mass enforcement is hurting the same entrepreneurs who backed it, and that this is driving a political shift in the Valley.
The central tension is between what the builders voted for and what they got. They wanted the border controlled and criminals removed, and they believed in Trump's American dream story. Instead, raids hit their own crews, citizens feared being stopped, and lobbying in Washington brought little relief. The framer 'A' resents them, and the episode ends with polling showing a sharp swing toward Democrats.
Facts
Stated by the speakers. Each quote matches the transcript, which shows what was said, not that it is true.
The South Texas Builders Association, led by executive director Mario Guerrero, is a group of 159 construction and real estate businesses, mostly in the Rio Grande Valley.
“It's a group of 159 construction and real estate businesses, mostly across the Rio Grande Valley.”
0:03:16 · Lindsay Garrison · STBA
The Rio Grande Valley voted Democratic for generations, though it is described as more politically purple than blue.
“For generations, the valley voted Democrat, but it's more of a purple place than a blue one.”
0:06:04 · Lindsay Garrison · Voting history
The largest immigration surge in U.S. history, which peaked under the Biden administration, reached the Rio Grande Valley starting in 2021.
“The largest immigration surge in U. S. history, which peaked during the Biden administration, had landed in the Rio Grande Valley.”
0:07:14 · Lindsay Garrison · Border surge · 2021
At the peak of the surge, about 10,000 immigrants a day were crossing the southern U.S. border.
“At one point, 10,000 immigrants a day were crossing into the United States along the southern border.”
0:07:53 · Lindsay Garrison · Border surge · 2021
According to the McAllen Police Department, property crime rose slightly in 2022 but overall crime in McAllen fell during the surge period.
“For example, according to the McAllen Police Department, property crime did rise slightly in 2022, but overall crime was actually down in the city during this period.”
0:10:17 · Lindsay Garrison · Crime data · 2022
Construction employs the highest share of immigrant labor of any U.S. field, nearly 30% nationally and higher in Texas.
“Nationwide, the construction field employs the highest percentage of immigrant labor, nearly 30%, and in Texas, those numbers are even higher.”
0:16:17 · Lindsay Garrison · Immigrant labor
One small Rio Grande Valley builder said he built twelve houses in 2025 instead of his usual 25 and had contracts for only three going into 2026.
“I talked to one small builder who told me in a normal year, he'd build around 25 houses. By the end of 2025, he'd only built twelve, and going into 2026, he only had contracts for three.”
0:23:47 · Lindsay Garrison · Housing slowdown · 2025
A large Rio Grande Valley concrete company laid off more than 100 workers and then filed for bankruptcy a few months later.
“A big concrete company told me that around this time, he laid off more than 100 workers, and a few months later, he filed for bankruptcy.”
0:24:25 · Lindsay Garrison · Business impact · 2025
Mario Guerrero says construction apprentices start at $15 an hour, more than double Texas's minimum wage.
“And Mario argues it's not because they're not paid well. He points out that an apprentice starts out making fifteen an hour.”
0:25:55 · Lindsay Garrison · Construction wages
Julio Carranza was born in 1985 in McAllen, Texas, and spent his first five years living in Reynosa, Mexico.
“He was born in 1985 in McAllen, Texas. But the first five years of his life, he lived in Reynosa, Mexico, just over the border.”
0:30:35 · Lindsay Garrison · Julio Carranza · 1985
Colonias in the Rio Grande Valley are small, often impoverished communities that were established decades ago for farm workers and laborers from Mexico.
“A lot of them were established decades ago, when farm workers and laborers came from Mexico to work in the fields and needed a place to live.”
0:37:02 · Lindsay Garrison · Colonias
At the STBA's Martin Luther King Day meeting, Mario Guerrero said over 9,000 people had been deported from the area.
“Over 9,000 people have been deported just out of our area.”
0:44:53 · Mario Guerrero · Deportations · 2026
In September, a federal court in Alabama ruled that warrantless searches of construction sites were illegal, agreeing with the builders' position.
“In September, about seven months after this meeting, a federal court in Alabama actually weighed in on this. It agreed with the builders. The judge ruled that warrantless searches of construction sites were, in fact, illegal.”
0:52:31 · Lindsay Garrison · Court ruling · 2026
In June, Congress passed the Secure America Act, which gave ICE and Border Patrol an additional $70 billion and led to a surge of arrests.
“A few months later, in June, Congress passed the Secure America Act, and Ice and Border Patrol were given an additional 70 billion in funding, leading to a surge of arrests.”
0:55:30 · Lindsay Garrison · Enforcement funding · 2026
In July, more than 200 people were arrested in the Rio Grande Valley in one day, and an ICE agent killed Lorenzo Salgado Arajo, a framer north of Houston.
“And in July, more than 200 people were arrested in the valley in a single day. In that same month, an Ice agent shot and killed Lorenzo Salgado Arajo, a framer five hours north of Houston.”
0:55:30 · Lindsay Garrison · Enforcement surge · 2026
The STBA's new trade school plans a starting class of 28 students.
“With a planned starting class of 28 students, Mario knows it's a drop in the bucket, but at least it's something.”
1:08:32 · Lindsay Garrison · Trade school
A New York Times poll found Texas Latino voters favoring Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico over Republican Ken Paxton by nearly forty points.
“Latino voters favor the state's Democratic candidate for Senate, James Talarico, over his Republican rival, Ken Paxton, by nearly forty points.”
1:15:00 · Michael Barbaro · Texas polling · 2026