# Democrats Lead In NPR Poll, Preparations For Election Challenge, Israel Voting Begins

- **Show:** Up First from NPR
- **Published:** 27 Oct 2026
- **Source:** https://www.npr.org/2026/10/27/nx-s1-6019096/democrats-lead-in-npr-poll-preparations-for-election-challenge-israel-voting-begins
- **Transcript:** https://podcasts.opennash.com/shows/up-first/democrats-lead-in-npr-poll-preparations-for-election-challenge-israel-voting-beg-a2fbce/
- **Provider:** OpenNash Podcasts (machine-generated)

## In brief

A new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll shows Democrats ahead by eight points among likely voters, making a House win very likely. Control of the Senate is still a toss-up. Alongside the polling, the episode argues that Democrats and election officials are preparing for President Trump to challenge the results. It also reports on Israel's first national vote since the October 7 attacks, which could decide Prime Minister Netanyahu's future.

The central tension is between a strong Democratic position and the risks that could blunt it. Young voters, independents and non-white voters say they are less enthusiastic. The Senate map is hard, and Republicans trust the vote count less than Democrats do. In Israel, a tight race and likely weeks of coalition talks mean the winner may not be clear for some time.

## Key insights

1. **Democrats are favored in the House, not the Senate** Domenico Montanaro says the polling error would have to be larger than almost anything on record for Democrats to miss the House. The five Senate toss-up seats are in states Trump won by double digits on average in 2024, so Democrats could net one or two seats or as many as six or seven. They need four.
2. **Enthusiasm gaps could blunt the Democratic lead** Only 42% of young voters, 48% of independents and 53% of non-white voters say they are very enthusiastic. All three trail pro-Trump groups. Midterms typically see lower turnout from younger voters and Black and Latino voters than presidential elections do.
3. **Republicans trust the election process less** Large majorities in every group expect fair elections run by state and local governments. Republicans were about 20 points less likely than Democrats to say so. They were also 20 points less likely to say their candidate should definitely accept the result, which Montanaro says could cause trouble if Trump again stokes false fraud claims.
4. **Democrats are pre-writing responses to election disruption** Eric McDaniel reports that Democrats and nonpartisan groups are linking up with local election officials, drafting legal filings in advance and preparing talking points. They are worried about a federal election emergency declaration, which doesn't exist in law, troops at the polls, and unsupported claims that a foreign enemy hacked voting machines.
5. **Israel's vote may take weeks to settle** Ruth Sherlock says a clearer picture of which side won the most seats should come by Wednesday morning, but counting can continue for days. The prime minister will be chosen through party negotiations lasting days or possibly weeks, so Netanyahu's fate is not settled on election night.

## Questions this episode answers

### Who is expected to win control of Congress in this election?

Domenico Montanaro says a Democratic House win is very likely, since the polling error would have to be bigger than almost anything seen before. The Senate is a genuine toss-up, and Democrats need four seats to take it.

### What is a generic congressional ballot?

It is a poll question asking people who they would vote for in their own district if the election were held today. Democrats led it by eight points among likely voters in this poll.

### Why might young and independent voters make it harder for Democrats to win big?

Only 42% of young voters and 48% of independents who have soured on Trump said they were very enthusiastic about voting. Montanaro notes that younger voters and Black and Latino voters tend to turn out at lower rates in midterms than in presidential years.

### What is the Trump administration doing about election fraud claims?

According to the hosts and Eric McDaniel, the Justice Department has sued over voting in Alaska and California, and Trump offered a million-dollar bounty for fraud tips that lead to a conviction. McDaniel adds that election experts consider elections already secure and there has never been credible evidence of fraud large enough to change a US election result.

### When will we know who runs Israel after this vote?

Ruth Sherlock says a clearer picture of which side has the most seats should come by Wednesday morning, though counting can last days. The prime minister will be decided by party negotiations that could take days or weeks.

## Facts

- **Domenico Montanaro** [0:02:26]: "President Trump continues to be unpopular, with an approval rating among likely voters at 40%, which is actually a tick up or two from what it's been with registered voters."
- **Domenico Montanaro** [0:02:56]: "Democrats are ten points more likely than Republicans to say that they are, quote, very enthusiastic about voting."
- **Domenico Montanaro** [0:03:49]: "So Democrats could net a seat or two in the Senate, which would not be enough. They need four, or they could win six or seven."
- **Domenico Montanaro** [0:04:16]: "Young voters, just 42% say that they're very enthusiastic about voting. Independents who have soured on Trump, uh, just 48% said that. Non-white voters, just 53%."
- **Domenico Montanaro** [0:05:42]: "Republicans, though, were 20 points less likely to say so than Democrats, and they were also 20 points less likely than Democrats to believe that their candidate should definitely accept the results of the election."
- **Michel Martin** [0:06:26]: "Today, a judge hears arguments over the administration's effort to force California to set aside some ballots."
- **Michel Martin** [0:06:26]: "An appeals court last night declined to get involved in that case."
- **Eric McDaniel** [0:06:57]: "They point to things like a million-dollar bounty offered by President Trump yesterday for election fraud tips that lead to a conviction, though it's unclear how or if that would be paid."
- **Eric McDaniel** [0:07:25]: "these folks are worried about things like a federal election emergency declaration, which is something that doesn't exist in law"
- **Eric McDaniel** [0:07:58]: "In 2016, Trump said he'd won the popular vote. He just won the electoral college."
- **Eric McDaniel** [0:08:23]: "Last week, I talked to Representative Jim Himes. He's a Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, the ranking member there."
- **Eric McDaniel** [0:08:51]: "which the White House claimed would protect the election by restricting mail-in voting and requiring folks to show proof of their citizenship status in order to stay registered to vote. It failed due to a lack of Republican support in the Senate."
- **Ruth Sherlock** [0:10:29]: "We're expecting a very high voter turnout, well over 70% of the voting age population, and Israelis abroad are flying in to vote"
- **Ruth Sherlock** [0:11:27]: "Netanyahu posted an AI generated image at the weekend of an atomic bomb exploding over Tel Aviv to remind Israelis of what he sees as the nuclear threat from Iran."
- **Ruth Sherlock** [0:11:57]: "his primary challenger is Gadi Eisenkot. He's a former military chief of staff who's actually been part of Netanyahu's war cabinet. One of his sons and two of his nephews died in the war in Gaza."
- **Ruth Sherlock** [0:13:10]: "We should have a clearer picture by Wednesday morning, who which side has the most seats in Parliament, but the vote count can continue for days."

## Transcript

**[0:00:02] Michel Martin:** Democrats maintain their edge in the race to control the House.

**[0:00:05] Steve Inskeep:** An NPR survey gives Democrats an eight-point lead among likely voters, but younger voters are not enthused. Does that leave the Senate out of reach?

**[0:00:14] Michel Martin:** I'm Michel Martin, that's Steve Inskeep, and this is Up First from NPR News. President Trump routinely claims fraud in election after election, his allies never found widespread evidence. Now he's using the power of the federal government to amplify his claims. How are election officials preparing to respond?

**[0:00:33] Steve Inskeep:** Also, Israelis vote in the first election since the October seventh attacks. Plane loads of people have flown home to cast their ballots. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under pressure. What coalition, if any, could replace him? Stay with us, we've got the news you need to start your day.

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**[0:02:06] Steve Inskeep:** Election day is one week away. A new NPR PBS News Marist poll is out this morning with insights into how likely voters are viewing this election.

**[0:02:16] Michel Martin:** Here to break down the numbers is NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro. Domenico, welcome.

**[0:02:22] Domenico Montanaro:** Hey, good morning, Michelle.

**[0:02:23] Michel Martin:** So what does the poll say about where things stand?

**[0:02:26] Domenico Montanaro:** Well, it's a lot of what we've been seeing, you know, Democrats have an eight-point advantage among likely voters in this poll. It's on what's known as the generic congressional ballot. Uh, that's when pollsters ask who would you vote for if the election was held today in your district? Historically, that eight-point edge is a pretty big number that Democrats need to do well. President Trump continues to be unpopular, with an approval rating among likely voters at 40%, which is actually a tick up or two from what it's been with registered voters.

**[0:02:56] Domenico Montanaro:** But it's not surprising when voters continue to say that the cost of living is their top issue, as they do in our poll. And Democrats also retain an enthusiasm advantage overall. Democrats are ten points more likely than Republicans to say that they are, quote, very enthusiastic about voting.

**[0:03:14] Michel Martin:** Would you say that this puts Democrats in a strong position heading into election night?

**[0:03:19] Domenico Montanaro:** I mean, generally, yes, you know, with some caveats, you know, everyone would rightly be shocked if Democrats don't win the House at this point. You know, the polling error would have to be bigger than almost anything we've ever seen before, but there could be limits to how big those gains are that Democrats would make. And the Senate is genuinely a toss-up. When we look at the targeted seats in the House, nine and ten are in districts that Trump won and in the Senate, remember, just because the landscape has shifted toward Democrats doesn't mean those toss-ups are definitely going to go their way.

**[0:03:49] Domenico Montanaro:** At the end of the day, toss-ups are toss-ups for a reason, after all. So Democrats could net a seat or two in the Senate, which would not be enough. They need four, or they could win six or seven. Plus, again, Democrats are playing on red turf. All five Senate toss-up seats are in states that Trump won by double digits on average in 2024.

**[0:04:09] Michel Martin:** So Democrats have a solid outlook, but is there anything in the numbers in our poll that might give them some caution and Republicans some hope?

**[0:04:16] Domenico Montanaro:** Yeah, I mean, there is, I mean, when you look at key groups for each party that are very enthusiastic to vote, for example, some key Democratic pillar groups drop off. Young voters, just 42% say that they're very enthusiastic about voting. Independents who have soured on Trump, uh, just 48% said that. Non-white voters, just 53%. All are lagging behind some more pro-Trump groups like MAGA voters, white women without college degrees, and white evangelical voters.

**[0:04:44] Domenico Montanaro:** That happens in midterms, where traditionally younger voters and Black and Latino voters turn out at disproportionately lower rates than in presidential elections. That said, there's been a political realignment in this country under Trump, where college-educated whites have been siding with Democrats, and they show up at, you know, much larger numbers, uh, proportionally to vote. So midterms, even more so than presidential elections, are something of a volatile stew of uncertainty, really.

**[0:05:10] Michel Martin:** So we mentioned at the top that there's one week until election day, but we might be waiting for results, you know, longer than that, right? So did the poll get at that?

**[0:05:19] Domenico Montanaro:** Right, you know, patience is really gonna be key here because the outcome of lots of races probably won't be known before people go to bed on election night. And there's nothing nefarious about that. That's just how vote counting goes, especially when we have so many close races in this country. You know, we asked about trust in elections, and we found that large majorities of all political groups said that they thought that their state and local governments would run a fair and accurate election.

**[0:05:42] Domenico Montanaro:** Republicans, though, were 20 points less likely to say so than Democrats, and they were also 20 points less likely than Democrats to believe that their candidate should definitely accept the results of the election. You know, that could lead to a huge mess if Trump again stokes the flames of false election conspiracies, as he did after the 2020 election that led eventually to January 6th and the violence at the Capitol. There's also a lot in here in this poll on guns, immigration, government efficiency, and AI.

**[0:06:11] Domenico Montanaro:** That's all worth reading. All of it's posted to npr.org.

**[0:06:15] Michel Martin:** That is NPR's senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro. Domenico, thank you.

**[0:06:19] Domenico Montanaro:** You're welcome.

**[0:06:21] Steve Inskeep:** If Democrats should win Tuesday's voting, their next task will be securing the vote.

**[0:06:26] Michel Martin:** The Trump administration has used the federal government's power to highlight the president's constant claims of voter fraud. Today, a judge hears arguments over the administration's effort to force California to set aside some ballots. The administration wants that treatment for people it claims are likely not citizens. An appeals court last night declined to get involved in that case.

**[0:06:46] Steve Inskeep:** NPR congressional reporter Eric McDaniel is here in Studio 31 to give us an update on how Democrats are preparing to respond to all this. Eric, good morning.

**[0:06:54] Eric McDaniel:** Good morning, good morning.

**[0:06:55] Steve Inskeep:** Okay, what do the preparations look like?

**[0:06:57] Eric McDaniel:** Well, I'll just say for Democrats in this constellation of good governance and nonpartisan groups, the election disruption effort is ongoing, right? They point to things like a million-dollar bounty offered by President Trump yesterday for election fraud tips that lead to a conviction, though it's unclear how or if that would be paid. Department of Justice lawsuits in Alaska and California, like you'd mentioned, the failed effort by the administration to restrict mail-in voting. It's all been the subject of legal fights and will be.

**[0:07:25] Eric McDaniel:** Next, these folks are worried about things like a federal election emergency declaration, which is something that doesn't exist in law, troops at the polls, illegal, or the president saying without providing any evidence that a foreign enemy has hacked voting machines. So they've been trying to link up with local election officials, pre-write legal filings, and get all of their talking points ready to go out and say the truth, which is that people should feel comfortable casting their ballots.

**[0:07:48] Steve Inskeep:** Okay, understand that. You just mentioned a number of things that the president might say or do that would be illegal if he said or did them. What is the pattern about how the president talks about elections?

**[0:07:58] Eric McDaniel:** Well, I I mean, I think you've mentioned this. The president's claimed fraud in every election he's been involved with, just for the benefit of folks who are too young to remember. In 2016, Trump said he'd won the popular vote. He just won the electoral college. When you discount millions of illegal votes, in 2018, he claimed there was electoral fraud in states like Arizona. The January 6th insurrection was about fraud claims in the 2020 presidential election. He told CNN that there was rigging going on in 2024.

**[0:08:23] Eric McDaniel:** It goes on and on. Last week, I talked to Representative Jim Himes. He's a Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, the ranking member there. He reminded me that he was actually in the Capitol during the January 6th insurrection and said it would be irresponsible for him and other Democrats not to be ready to combat fraud efforts.

**[0:08:40] Steve Inskeep:** And I guess we should just mention once again, uh, even the president's allies have never been able to substantiate the various claims of voter fraud in 2020 and other elections. But how does the White House describe what it's doing this time around?

**[0:08:51] Eric McDaniel:** Well, they say all of their work is to secure elections, which I should point out, election experts say is are already secure. Like Domenico mentioned, folks trust elections and election officials. I spent a good amount of time, though, this year reporting on the effort to get the Save America Act passed, which the White House claimed would protect the election by restricting mail-in voting and requiring folks to show proof of their citizenship status in order to stay registered to vote.

**[0:09:15] Eric McDaniel:** It failed due to a lack of Republican support in the Senate. Earlier this month, a reporter actually pressed the president on if he would honor the results. Listen to this.

**[0:09:23] Casey:** What do you think? The answer is to that. What

**[0:09:25] Michel Martin:** This is a great example.

**[0:09:27] Casey:** Of course I will. But we don't want you to.

**[0:09:29] Eric McDaniel:** And he went on to talk about I don't want cheating, I don't want cheating in an extended back and forth, which is part and parcel for how he's talked about this the whole time. And again, just to make it really explicit, there has never been credible evidence of voter fraud anywhere near the level to impact results of elections in the United States.

**[0:09:46] Steve Inskeep:** NPR congressional reporter Eric McDaniel, thanks so much.

**[0:09:49] Eric McDaniel:** Thanks, Steve.

**[0:09:58] Steve Inskeep:** Israelis are casting their ballots this morning in an election that many see as critical to their country's future.

**[0:10:04] Michel Martin:** This is the first time Israelis have had the chance to vote on their leaders since the Hamas attacks on October 7th, three years ago, and the wars that have followed in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, all conflicts that will be influenced by the outcome of this vote. Israel's far-right, longest-serving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu now faces a key challenger.

**[0:10:23] Steve Inskeep:** NPR's Ruth Sherlock is in Tel Aviv, out and about on the streets. And Ruth, where are you exactly? What are you seeing?

**[0:10:29] Ruth Sherlock:** Hi Steve, I'm at a polling station near Tel Aviv, and, you know, we're seeing that the sense is that this is a really vital election for Israelis. We're expecting a very high voter turnout, well over 70% of the voting age population, and Israelis abroad are flying in to vote for what polls suggest is going to be a very close race. At this polling station, we're meeting people like Itamar Ariel, who support Netanyahu.

**[0:10:57] Casey:** The best.

**[0:10:57] Ruth Sherlock:** Says, Yes, there are problems in Israel, but nobody can replace Netanyahu, he says. For him, this is about security for Israel. But here's the thing, Steve. In the country, there are many people here who believe that it's for the security failures that Netanyahu should be voted out. They want to see a full investigation into exactly how the October 7th Hamas attacks in Israel could happen, something Netanyahu has blocked, and they're tired of the wars he's championing.

**[0:11:27] Ruth Sherlock:** He says he's a straight man, an honest man. That's the grandfather. Netanyahu posted an AI generated image at the weekend of an atomic bomb exploding over Tel Aviv to remind Israelis of what he sees as the nuclear threat from Iran. One man at the polling station here said he called that sick, uh, saying that he thinks Netanyahu was trying to win votes by scaring Israelis.

**[0:11:45] Steve Inskeep:** I want to underline this though, Ruth. There's clearly a lot of Israelis who don't like the prime minister, yet he's won election after election after election. He finally was pushed out, he got his way back in. So what are the options for Israelis who don't support him?

**[0:11:57] Ruth Sherlock:** Well, there are many parties running, but his primary challenger is Gadi Eisenkot. He's a former military chief of staff who's actually been part of Netanyahu's war cabinet. One of his sons and two of his nephews died in the war in Gaza. He now leads a center-right opposition, and that's promising more diplomacy, less extremism, an end to this Israeli increasing isolation of Israel abroad. Uh, we spoke with Ido and Itay, Opher Ami, a young man and his grandfather.

**[0:12:27] Ruth Sherlock:** Itay was voting for the first time, and they s both support Eisenkot for change.

**[0:12:32] Casey:** Shinoi, Kodokko, Niraali Ishamini, Shiasar, Estorikodnissim.

**[0:12:37] Ruth Sherlock:** Says he's a straight man, an honest man. That's the grandfather. And his grandson says he wants less war and to address the cost of the living crisis here. And, you know, the issues that many voters care about, I really want to underline this, are not necessarily the ones that people focus on abroad, like the destruction of Gaza. It's also here about domestic questions, like whether Orthodox Jews should serve in the military.

**[0:13:02] Steve Inskeep:** Yeah, and I heard you mention cost of living, which is something that Americans are thinking about here in our election. So what's the timeline? When do we find out who won?

**[0:13:10] Ruth Sherlock:** We should have a clearer picture by Wednesday morning, who which side has the most seats in Parliament, but the vote count can continue for days. And we won't know who the Prime Minister is because That will be determined by the parties in days and possible weeks of negotiation.

**[0:13:24] Steve Inskeep:** Listen to that helicopter go over. NPR's Ruth Sherlock at a polling station near Tel Aviv. Thanks so much.

**[0:13:30] Ruth Sherlock:** Thank you.

**[0:13:35] Steve Inskeep:** And that's up first for this Tuesday, October 27th. I'm Steve Inskeep.

**[0:13:39] Michel Martin:** And I'm Michel Martin. Today's episode of Up First was edited by Jason Breslow, Tina Kraja, Mohamad ElBardicy, and Alice Woelfle. It was produced by Iman Maani and Nia Dumas. Our director is Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Neisha Heinis. Our technical director is Ariel Lopez. Our supervising senior producer is Vince Pearson, and special thanks to our colleagues at Michigan Public. We hope you'll join us again tomorrow.

**[0:13:39] Steve Inskeep:** And I'm Michel Martin. Today's episode of Up First was edited by Jason Breslow, Tina Kraja, Mohamad ElBardicy, and Alice Woelfle. It was produced by Iman Maani and Nia Dumas. Our director is Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Neisha Heinis. Our technical director is Ariel Lopez. Our supervising senior producer is Vince Pearson, and special thanks to our colleagues at Michigan Public. We hope you'll join us again tomorrow.

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