# Election Day, Trump's Closing Message, Iran War And The Midterms

- **Show:** Up First from NPR
- **Published:** 3 Nov 2026
- **Source:** https://www.npr.org/2026/11/03/nx-s1-6027249/election-day-trumps-closing-message-iran-war-and-the-midterms
- **Transcript:** https://podcasts.opennash.com/shows/up-first/election-day-trumps-closing-message-iran-war-and-the-midterms-e6b072/
- **Provider:** OpenNash Podcasts (machine-generated)

## In brief

On Election Day, Democrats are favored to win the House, and unpopular Republican policies have made even red states like Iowa, Arkansas, Kansas and Mississippi competitive. President Trump's closing speech spent more time on a reflecting pool renovation than on voters' concerns. Iran is watching too, betting that high gas prices and the closed Strait of Hormuz will hurt Trump's party at the polls.

The main tension is between a president who admits the historical odds are against him and a war that may restart whatever the vote says. Trump's rallies aimed to motivate supporters who usually only vote when he is on the ballot, while Iran's leaders hope to wait out Washington. Ordinary Iranians, facing inflation near 90 percent and energy shortages, bear the cost of both strategies.

## Key insights

1. **Unpopular policies made red states competitive** Stephen Fowler drove over 2,000 miles in October through places like Little Rock, Kansas, Mississippi and Iowa that few expected to decide Congress. Voters cited the Iran war, gas prices, corruption and immigration handling.
2. **Trump's closing speech missed voters' priorities** He spent about 20 minutes on a reflecting pool renovation before mentioning the midterms. A Republican strategist said such topics don't connect with people's pocketbooks and give candidates little political cover.
3. **Iran is using oil prices as political leverage** By keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed, Iran has kept U.S. gas prices high. It hopes this angers Trump's base, costs his party the midterms and pushes him back to negotiations.
4. **Early South Carolina results could signal the night** Franco Ordonez said Republican margins in early-closing states like Ohio, Kansas and South Carolina would show how the night is going. A closer-than-expected South Carolina or Florida would point to a rough night for Republicans.
5. **Gulf states are negotiating with Iran themselves** Feeling abandoned by the U.S., and taking the brunt of Iranian retaliation, Gulf countries have held direct talks with Tehran, with Qatar mediating. Saudi officials are urging calm, while an Emirati adviser said the Gulf is bracing for the worst.

## Questions this episode answers

### Who is expected to win control of Congress in this midterm election?

Democrats are favored to win the House, and the Senate is more uncertain, with races in states like Iowa, Texas, Ohio and Alaska. Republicans currently control both chambers.

### Why are Republicans struggling even in strongly Republican states?

NPR's Stephen Fowler said voters see a mismatch in priorities. They are worried about the Iran war, gas prices, corruption and immigration, while the president focuses on projects like a reflecting pool.

### What did Trump say in his final pitch before the midterms?

He spoke mostly about renovating the reflecting pool in Washington before turning to the election, which he called the most important midterm in our lifetime. He also said the sitting president usually doesn't win the midterms but that his side gave this a strong shot.

### How does the Strait of Hormuz affect American voters?

The strait is a key waterway for oil and gas shipping. NPR's Hadeel Al Shalchi said Iran has kept it closed to keep U.S. gas prices high and anger Trump's base.

### Is the U.S. about to go back to war with Iran?

It is possible but unsettled. The AP reported U.S. 'defensive' strikes on Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz last night, while Iran says it prefers talks and Trump posted that an agreement could happen.

## Facts

- **Steve Inskeep** [0:02:27]: "Republicans reach this day in control of both houses of Congress, while Democrats have a chance to recapture at least one."
- **Stephen Fowler** [0:02:45]: "I mean, in October alone, I've driven more than 2,000 miles across states that nobody had on their bingo card as deciding who controls Congress, Kansas, Mississippi, and right here in Iowa"
- **Stephen Fowler** [0:03:31]: "we have polling that say they're concerned about the war in Iran, rising gas prices, even things that aren't directly economic, like corruption, the Epstein files, handling of immigration."
- **Stephen Fowler** [0:04:52]: "There's a notable increase in Black voter turnout, especially in the South, notable among young voters and pretty much every group that tends to support Democrats."
- **Stephen Fowler** [0:05:11]: "Iowa has competitive races for governor, U.S. Senate, three or four House races forecasted to be very close and maybe favorable for Democrats."
- **Franco Ordonez** [0:06:22]: "I can tell you that none of our reporting showed that the reflecting pool was a top issue for voters, but that's what he really largely talked about."
- **Michel Martin** [0:05:54]: "Notably, it took 20 minutes into a speech that was largely about his controversial project to renovate the pool before he brought up these consequential elections."
- **Steve Inskeep** [0:07:26]: "So the president made an unusual choice for an unpopular president. 30 rallies in 30 days, and his message to voters was pretend I'm on the ballot."
- **Franco Ordonez** [0:08:27]: "races in Ohio, where Trump visited three times, Kansas, as well as even South Carolina."
- **Michel Martin** [0:09:44]: "the Associated Press is reporting that the U.S. conducted what its source called defensive strikes on Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz last night."
- **Hadeel Al Shalchi** [0:10:13]: "Uh, like Michelle mentioned just a minute ago, the AP reported that there were U.S. strikes in Kishim Island in the Strait of Hormuz yesterday."
- **Hadeel Al Shalchi** [0:10:13]: "Iran has used its closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is a key waterway for oil and gas shipping, to keep gas prices high."
- **Hadeel Al Shalchi** [0:11:06]: "The Iranian Foreign Ministry has said that Iran would even be willing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in two days instead of the seven it proposed back in September if the U.S. comes back to talks."
- **Hadeel Al Shalchi** [0:11:21]: "there's been a flurry of diplomatic visits between Tehran and mediator country Qatar."
- **Hadeel Al Shalchi** [0:11:49]: "Now, those are three countries also that have a new defense alliance between them."
- **Hadeel Al Shalchi** [0:11:49]: "and then on Monday, Trump posted on his social media that an agreement with Iran, quote, could happen."
- **Hadeel Al Shalchi** [0:12:23]: "they've been already trying to survive an economic devastation, you know, the Iranian inflation rate is hovering at about 90% right now."
- **Hadeel Al Shalchi** [0:12:54]: "Iranian officials are saying that the country's natural gas networks are now unstable because of all the damage from the war."

## Transcript

**[0:00:02] Michel Martin:** Election day is here. Democrats are favored to win the House.

**[0:00:05] Steve Inskeep:** We have the view from Iowa, one of the red states that will likely determine control of the Senate. How are the parties motivating those last few voters?

**[0:00:13] Michel Martin:** I am Michel Martin, that's Steve Inskeep, and this is Up First from NPR News. President Trump seemed to acknowledge that the party he dominates is in a bad position to dominate the midterms.

**[0:00:26] Donald Trump:** For some reason, uh, the sitting president doesn't win the midterms.

**[0:00:30] Michel Martin:** How reflective was the president as he stood by the reflecting pool in Washington?

**[0:00:34] Steve Inskeep:** Also, Iran prepares for the possibility of renewed U.S. attack. There are reports of limited U.S. strikes in the Strait of Hormuz just last night. So what are the signs of a lengthening war? Stay with us. We've got the news you need to start your day.

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**[0:02:06] Steve Inskeep:** It's election day, the end of a season of voting and the start of finding out the count. It's a midterm election that has set one record after another.

**[0:02:14] Michel Martin:** A record number of lawmakers chose to retire this year. Voters may retire some more. Others have fought for their jobs in the most expensive campaign in U.S. history. President Trump's popularity sits at near historic lows.

**[0:02:27] Steve Inskeep:** Republicans reach this day in control of both houses of Congress, while Democrats have a chance to recapture at least one. NPR's Stephen Fowler is in Des Moines, Iowa this election morning. Stephen, good morning. Good morning. How has the feeling in this country changed over the past two years that you've been traveling around covering politics?

**[0:02:45] Stephen Fowler:** When President Trump returned to office, I spent a lot of time in places like Georgia, where I live, and North Carolina. They were expected to be some of the most expensive, hotly contested places, and also perennial purple places like Pennsylvania. But this second term's seen a string of unpopular policies that have rocked the economy, and it's taken me to places you, frankly, would not believe would be competitive, like Little Rock, Arkansas. I mean, in October alone, I've driven more than 2,000 miles across states that nobody had on their bingo card as deciding who controls Congress, Kansas, Mississippi, and right here in Iowa, all because of the unpopularity of the president's agenda.

**[0:03:22] Steve Inskeep:** Okay, unpopular with the majority of voters, which has often been true, but how does that translate into Republicans struggling even in very red states like Mississippi?

**[0:03:31] Stephen Fowler:** Ultimately, voters say it's a mismatch in priorities. Uh, we have polling that say they're concerned about the war in Iran, rising gas prices, even things that aren't directly economic, like corruption, the Epstein files, handling of immigration. At the same time, they see the president focus on ballrooms and arches and a reflecting pool instead of reflecting what they want the federal government to focus on.

**[0:03:54] Steve Inskeep:** I see what you did there. Please continue.

**[0:03:56] Stephen Fowler:** To be clear, Democrats aren't that popular either, but in many of these places that are more conservative, those nominees on the left are offering something different than the Republican Party and the National Democratic Party image.

**[0:04:08] Steve Inskeep:** Okay, so we know who's favored, but here's my favorite thing about elections. Stephen, we're in a world obsessed with data, obsessed with predictions. We all stare at polls, but human beings are unpredictable. We don't truly know the outcome, so what are both parties doing now to shape that?

**[0:04:23] Stephen Fowler:** There are dozens of House races where both parties are spending large amounts of money to get out the vote. Today, we're talking tens of millions of dollars in districts in Michigan, Florida, North Carolina, not to mention the nonstop avalanche of cash flowing into these statewide Senate races that will decide the upper chamber, like Texas, Ohio, Alaska. I mean, to sum it up, the Republican closing message, in part, is give us two more years to fix things, while Democrats say that they've had two years too many.

**[0:04:50] Steve Inskeep:** What do you get out of our early voting data here?

**[0:04:52] Stephen Fowler:** There's a notable increase in Black voter turnout, especially in the South, notable among young voters and pretty much every group that tends to support Democrats. So that could be one of the big storylines coming tomorrow morning.

**[0:05:04] Steve Inskeep:** And now let's focus in on Iowa, where you are right now. It's one of those unexpected places that you mentioned earlier. What are you watching?

**[0:05:11] Stephen Fowler:** Well, for one, uh, the weather. You might not be able to hear it, but it's raining here, and it's supposed to rain across much of the middle of the country today. And that's a pretty good metaphor for the election, too. Iowa has competitive races for governor, U.S. Senate, three or four House races forecasted to be very close and maybe favorable for Democrats. But it remains to be seen whether those results turn out to be a little puddle or an overwhelming downpour for Democrats.

**[0:05:35] Steve Inskeep:** Okay, we'll find out how the forecast turned out sometime tomorrow, or maybe in the days after. NPR's Stephen Fowler is in Des Moines. Thanks so much.

**[0:05:42] Stephen Fowler:** Thank you.

**[0:05:44] Steve Inskeep:** Okay, now President Trump looked a bit tired after barnstorming across the country, but yesterday made his final pitch to voters from the side of the reflecting pool in Washington, D.C.

**[0:05:54] Michel Martin:** Notably, it took 20 minutes into a speech that was largely about his controversial project to renovate the pool before he brought up these consequential elections.

**[0:06:04] Donald Trump:** As you know, this is the last day before the midterm elections, the most important midterm I believe in our lifetime.

**[0:06:11] Michel Martin:** But he also seemed to recognize the odds against him.

**[0:06:13] Steve Inskeep:** Sounds a little tired there as well. NPR White House correspondent Franco Ordonez joins us to talk about it all. Franco, good morning.

**[0:06:19] Franco Ordonez:** Good morning, Steve.

**[0:06:20] Steve Inskeep:** Okay, so what was the president's closing argument?

**[0:06:22] Franco Ordonez:** Well, I mean, Trump billed this speech as his closing argument, you know, and i it was really, Steve, anything but that. I mean, I can tell you that none of our reporting showed that the reflecting pool was a top issue for voters, but that's what he really largely talked about. I mean, construction improvements, rehashing debunked claims of vandalism. I mean, he did eventually get to the midterms, taking several shots against Democrats and painting their candidates as extremists.

**[0:06:50] Franco Ordonez:** And he also boasted of securing the borders and cutting taxes. But Steve, it was a very curious choice considering the stakes involved.

**[0:06:57] Steve Inskeep:** Did he acknowledge that the odds seem to be against his party today?

**[0:07:02] Franco Ordonez:** Well, I mean, he did say if a chunk of his supporters get out to the polls, they would win in a quote landslide. But he also seemed to acknowledge that the odds were against that happening.

**[0:07:11] Donald Trump:** For some reason, uh, the sitting president doesn't win the midterms, but um, we gave this a very strong shot.

**[0:07:20] Franco Ordonez:** I mean, he was almost talking in the past tense. I mean, not the kind of bombast that we usually hear from the president.

**[0:07:26] Steve Inskeep:** So the president made an unusual choice for an unpopular president. 30 rallies in 30 days, and his message to voters was pretend I'm on the ballot. How effective was that?

**[0:07:38] Franco Ordonez:** Yeah, I mean, again, you know, the goal is to try to motivate his supporters, many of whom tend to only turn out in presidential years when he's on the ballot. And I was speaking with Ryan Williams, a Republican strategist, and he told me that he understands what Trump is trying to do, but he also raised concerns that Trump was just not offering Republicans who are in the races more political cover.

**[0:07:58] Ad read:** This is generally the time in a campaign when you make your case as to why your party should stay in power for another two years and why the other party would do a worse job than you're doing. You try to relate to people, you try to highlight issues that are important to people's pocketbooks. The reflecting pool, the triumphal arch, comments on various candidates' physical appearances, those aren't really things that connect with people.

**[0:08:21] Steve Inskeep:** Okay, let's try to get the president's perspective on one other aspect of this day. Which races do you think he's gonna be watching most closely?

**[0:08:27] Franco Ordonez:** Yeah, Steve, it may be, of course, several days before we see the final results, but I am sure the president and his political operation will be watching how well Republicans turn out in some of these races where the polls will close sooner rather than later. I mean, just such as races in Ohio, where Trump visited three times, Kansas, as well as even South Carolina. I mean, Steve was talking about the bingo card that we didn't think some of these races were on.

**[0:08:56] Franco Ordonez:** And if Republicans are turning out and margins are greater than expected in some of these races, Trump is likely to breathe a little easier. But if Republicans are not turning out in states like, say, South Carolina is closer than expected, or maybe worse for Republicans, or for that matter, Florida is closer than expected, that could really signify a tough night for the Republicans.

**[0:09:20] Steve Inskeep:** you gave us a couple of early signs. Uh, South Carolina is a place where it's on the East Coast, the polls close early, and, uh, if you have the results there, some early results there, you may have an idea how the night's gonna go. Franco, thanks so much.

**[0:09:31] Franco Ordonez:** Thank you, Steve.

**[0:09:32] Steve Inskeep:** That's NPR White House correspondent Franco Ordonez. Now Iran has had its eye on today's midterms. It has used the elections as part of its pressure campaign to try to get President Trump to go back to negotiations.

**[0:09:44] Michel Martin:** For Iran today may also mean a potential return to war with the U.S. and Israel, and the Associated Press is reporting that the U.S. conducted what its source called defensive strikes on Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz last night.

**[0:09:57] Steve Inskeep:** NPR International correspondent Hadeel Al Shalchi has been trying to understand how the war looks from the Iranian perspective. You have to understand the other side if you're gonna understand what's going on. Hadeel, welcome.

**[0:10:07] Hadeel Al Shalchi:** Thank you.

**[0:10:08] Steve Inskeep:** Uh, why would Iran view this day as pivotal to them?

**[0:10:13] Hadeel Al Shalchi:** Well, Iran has used its closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is a key waterway for oil and gas shipping, to keep gas prices high. And it pursued this strategy to try to anger President Trump's base, hoping it would actually help cost his party the midterm elections. And we know that Americans are not happy, they are paying more at the pump. Uh, like Michelle mentioned just a minute ago, the AP reported that there were U.S. strikes in Kishim Island in the Strait of Hormuz yesterday.

**[0:10:39] Hadeel Al Shalchi:** That's a strategic island that Iran uses to launch its own strikes from. NPR couldn't independently confirm, but Iran did report explosions there. Now, Kishim Island has been struck like this many times in the past few months. It's not really new, but it does come at the eve of a potential war. Um, Iran has also intensified its own strikes on shipping vessels trying to cross the Strait. But the Iranians are saying that they actually prefer to go back to negotiations.

**[0:11:06] Hadeel Al Shalchi:** The Iranian Foreign Ministry has said that Iran would even be willing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in two days instead of the seven it proposed back in September if the U.S. comes back to talks.

**[0:11:16] Steve Inskeep:** Okay, so they're talking about diplomatic efforts, but is anyone making them?

**[0:11:21] Hadeel Al Shalchi:** Well, if you remember, Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE end up shouldering the brunt of Iran's retaliation to U.S. Israeli strikes because Iran attacks U.S. bases on their land. And feeling abandoned by the U.S. The Gulf has been hurriedly trying to take matters into its own hands in the past few weeks by talking directly to Iran. Uh, there's been a flurry of diplomatic visits between Tehran and mediator country Qatar. The delegations have included officials from Turkey, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia.

**[0:11:49] Hadeel Al Shalchi:** Now, those are three countries also that have a new defense alliance between them. We heard from an Emirati diplomatic advisor yesterday that the Gulf is bracing for the worst, uh, but Saudi officials are calling for calm. Uh, and then on Monday, Trump posted on his social media that an agreement with Iran, quote, could happen.

**[0:12:07] Steve Inskeep:** Okay, uh, he did talk in recent weeks about, uh, m maybe a peace agreement after the midterms. He thought that would be the the the timing. But of course, people are also asking if the U.S. is going to renew the war. How are Iranians on the street doing in this in this uncertain situation?

**[0:12:23] Hadeel Al Shalchi:** We're hearing a lot about a lot of anxiety, you know, they've been already trying to survive an economic devastation, you know, the Iranian inflation rate is hovering at about 90% right now. And now they have to get ready potentially for bombs falling in their neighborhoods. You know, the the head of the state-run Iranian psychology and counseling organization said that Iranians are fast approaching a mental health crisis. And then millions of Iranians this week are being told to conserve energy as the winter months are setting in, um, or they could face higher natural gas prices.

**[0:12:54] Hadeel Al Shalchi:** Iranian officials are saying that the country's natural gas networks are now unstable because of all the damage from the war. So, you know, Steve, Tehran is hoping it can wait out Washington today at the polls and, you know, possibly see Trump's party lose control of Congress, but it's really the Iranian people who are paying the cost.

**[0:13:13] Steve Inskeep:** Thanks very much for that perspective, Hadeel. Appreciate it.

**[0:13:15] Hadeel Al Shalchi:** You're welcome.

**[0:13:16] Steve Inskeep:** That's NPR's Hadeel Al Shalchi reporting today from Istanbul. And that's up first for this Tuesday, November 3rd, Election Day. I'm Steve Inskeep.

**[0:13:28] Michel Martin:** And I'm Michel Martin. Today's episode of Up First was edited by Megan Pratz, Rebekah Metzler, Tina Kraja, Miguel Macias, Mohamad ElBardicy, and Alice Woelfle. It was produced by Ziad Buchh and Nia Dumas. Our director is Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Neisha Heinis. Our technical director is Carleigh Strange, and our supervising senior producer is Vince Pearson. We hope you'll join us again tomorrow.

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