Final Days Of Midterm Campaigning, Alaska Senate Race Controversy, Iran War Plans

Four days before election day, President Trump is changing his campaign plans.

He canceled rallies in Iowa and Kansas and is doing nineteen tele-rallies instead. What does the last minute shift signal for Republicans?

I'm Steve Inskeep with a Martinez, and this is Up First from NPR News. The New York Times reported Democrats in Alaska recruited a spoiler candidate with the same name as the incumbent Republican senator. An election lawyer says if that's true, it sounds unethical, though not illegal.

And a senator briefed on possible new strikes on Iran is calling the military plan quote insane. American forces are building up in the Middle East. What kind of attack is being considered? Stay with us, we've got news you need to start your day.

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Down the stretch, the candidates come. It's the final sprint before election day, which, if you're counting, is four days away.

I was counting. Candidates and their surrogates are delivering their final speeches and, in some cases, making final adjustments. President Trump has been traveling to campaign for Republicans in trouble, but abruptly shifted to a larger number of virtual rallies.

NPR Politics reporter Sage Miller joins us now. Sage, I mean, up until now, the president has had a whirlwind stretch of appearances.

You know, President Trump is really trying to get out the vote. He's been on what feels like an American tour. He's headlined more than twenty rallies this month, and those have pretty much been in Republican states. And that caveat is that a lot of these states have competitive races in them. For example, he was just in Ohio, where a hotly contested Senate race is going down. Today, he will be in Florida, where some election analysts project the Senate race to now be within striking distance for Democrats.

He has canceled his in-person rallies in Iowa and Kansas this weekend, though both once again have tough Senate races. Instead of traveling to those states, Trump is opting to host nineteen tele-rallies, perhaps more bang for his buck rather than fitting in two in-person rallies over the weekend.

All right, so the fact that Trump is changing tactics at the last minute, I mean, does that mean Republicans are in trouble?

I mean, Trump told reporters that he isn't worried. That's part of the reason he says he canceled his trip to Kansas and Iowa. But polling does tell a different story. They show Democrats with a pretty sizable advantage, at least in the House. You know, Democrats are optimistic, just like the president has been showing up in a big way. High-profile Democrats are turning out to support their fellow Democrats. Obama was just in Ohio and Georgia. He told the crowd that Trump is missing the mark, the moment and focusing on the wrong things.

Democrats are all trying to convince voters that life would be better and easier if they had control of Congress. They're really trying to amplify that Americans are unhappy with the cost of living at the top of their mind, according to a recent NPR PBS NewsMaris poll. And the midterms, as we've said, like a thousand times before, are usually a referendum of the party in power. But of course, the blue wave could have its limits.

So on those limits, what are they?

I don't think it's a secret to either party that the Senate majority is definitely a toss-up right now, but races seem to keep moving towards the left. Most recently, Fox News just shifted the South Carolina Senate race to a toss-up. Once again, a that is a Republican stronghold, and we've seen Democratic candidates in Texas and Ohio, like I mentioned, continue to gain momentum in polling and in forecasting. That's why Trump is really trying to get Republicans to the polls, rally them up.

He knows he specifically is a motivating force within his party, and he's been telling Republicans to go out and vote like he is on the ballot. It's hard to tell if that is going to work, though, because Trump is also a motivating force for Democrats, and that could backfire, especially because early voting shows Republican turnout lagging behind Democrats. However, Republicans are more keen to show up on election day proper. So, hey, welcome to the waiting game.

As always, NPR politics reporter Sage Miller. Sage, thanks a lot.

Thank you.

Democrats in Alaska face questions about how far they went to win a U. S. Senate race.

Reporting by our friends at the New York Times alleged that Democrats were involved in recruiting a spoiler candidate to go on the ballot. Democrat Mary Peltola is running to unseat Republican Senator Dan Sullivan in a ranked choice election.

Liz Ruskin with Alaska Public Media has been following all of this, and she joins us now from Anchorage. Liz, let's start with the allegations in the New York Times. Uh, what are those allegations?

Well, NPR has not verified the reporting by the Times, but it concerns a third candidate in the race, a retired teacher named Dan Sullivan, same first and last name as the senator. When he filed to run back in May, Republicans called it a dirty trick. They said he wanted to confuse voters into selecting the wrong Sullivan. Peltola and National Democratic groups denied they had anything to do with this candidate. And then the Times report comes out saying there was an elaborate recruitment scheme to get another Dan Sullivan on the ballot.

The Times quotes a fired Peltola campaign manager alleging Peltola was aware of the recruitment, and the Times says the former aide had texts to back up her claim that Peltola's team was involved in it.

Wow, all right. So how are Republicans responding to all this?

President Trump says Peltola should be charged with a crime. He's, uh, got the Justice Department suing to block certification of the election if Senator Sullivan, uh, narrowly loses. Large excerpts from the Times story are now part of the lawsuit. Peltola's campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee filed a motion in that case last night saying that only Daniel J. Sullivan knows why he decided to run and that the DOJ is trying to interfere in the election.

Meanwhile, Governor Mike Dunleavy has asked the state to investigate if laws were broken.

What about Peltola? What, uh, has she said, uh, at all about this?

Well, last night she gave a speech at a bar in Juneau, Alaska's capital. I knew nothing about

any other candidates on the ballot except for me and the incumbent. That is all I have ever known about. I am not interested in tricking voters.

All right, so are there any laws that, uh, would apply here?

I've been talking to attorneys with expertise in election law, and they haven't been able to name any. Uh, Scott Kendall, for one, says the conduct described in the Times story crosses moral and ethical lines.

I look at those facts, I'm like, it's it's dirty, nasty business, but it's not illegal.

He says a candidate's motives for running do not matter under Alaska law.

What have voters had to say about this?

I have heard from a lot of Peltola supporters who say they're really disheartened by the New York Times report, but still voting for her. Here's nonpartisan voter Adam Lees from Anchorage.

It's obviously like not the best look. It does give, I think, as some of the kids would describe it, icky vibes. But at the same time, I think voters are intelligent and can figure out which Dan Sullivan is their person.

And on the ballot, the two Sullivan's are listed differently. One is Dan S. Republican incumbent, and the other is Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.

All right, that's Alaska Public Media's Liz Ruskin in Anchorage. Uh, Liz, thanks a lot.

Thank you.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has pushed out an army general who oversees planning at the Pentagon.

The general lost that job just as the U. S. and Israel were preparing for a possible new round of attacks against Iran. NPR's reporting finds the possible attack would come after the midterm elections.

We're joined now by NPR National Security correspondent Greg Myre. Greg, tell us about, uh, this general.

he's Army Lieutenant General Brett Sylvia. Now, he was part of the Joint Chiefs of Staff where he was in charge of strategy, planning, and policy. And A, we should stress, this is a very senior position, but his role was long-term planning, not day-to-day planning for the Iran war. Now, the Pentagon says it's carrying out a leak investigation, but it hasn't provided details. Still, Sylvia's dismissal should be seen against the backdrop of these widespread ousters that have taken place under Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon.

He's fired more than two dozen generals or admirals since taking over last year. In many cases, no reason has been given for these firings, and these dismissals have created disruptions at senior levels of the military.

Okay, anything new on those, uh, U. S. plans, uh, for a renewed attack on Iran?

Well, Senator Chris Murphy, a Democrat from Connecticut, spoke yesterday at the Middle East Institute in Washington. He said he was among lawmakers

Recently briefed on possible military plans. Here's how he described it.

I will just say this. Their plan is insane. It will lead to devastating escalation and the likely destruction of our commitment to the rule of law.

Now, Murphy declined to offer details beyond noting there's been public talk about the possibility of striking civilian infrastructure in Iran. His comments and remarks by other people inside and outside the administration have created this strong sense that major military action could be on the horizon after the midterms.

Okay, so so far, just talk. Anything tangible, though, on that in the region?

Well, the U. S. already has two aircraft carriers in the Arabian Sea, and a third one, the U S S. Theodore Roosevelt, is on the way. It's unusual for the U. S. to have two aircraft carriers in the same region, extremely rare to have three. According to U. S. Central Command, the last time the U. S. had three aircraft carriers stationed in the Middle East for any length of time was 2003, and that was the year the U.

S. invaded Iraq. Also, the U. S. has drawn down diplomats in a number of embassies. U. S. allies are carrying out training exercises, and the public discussion among U. S. partners from Israel to the Arab Gulf states is that fighting is likely to resume.

Are there any clues about what Iran might do to respond?

Yeah, Iran's been very clear about this. It says that if attacked, it will target U. S. military bases and oil and gas facilities in Arab states. And we know Iran has already inflicted a good deal of damage in months prior, and it has some capacity left, uh, but we don't know exactly how much. Iran has certainly been weakened. Its military and economy have both taken major blows, and the U. S. continues to block Iran's export of oil, and we know inflation in Iran is around 90%.

But it's not clear what it would take for Iran to make concessions on key issues, namely its nuclear program and control over the Strait of Hormuz.

All right, that's NPR's Greg Myre. Greg, thanks.

Sure thing, eh?

And that's up first for Friday, October 30th. I'm A Martínez.

And I'm Steve Inskeep. Today's Up First was edited by Megan Pratz, Miguel Macias, Andrew Sussman, Mohamad ElBardicy, and Alice Woelfle. It was produced by Iman Maani and Nia Dumas. Our director is Christopher Thomas, although it's hard to recognize him in his spectacular Halloween costume. Today, we get engineering support from Carleigh Strange. Our technical director is Ariel Lopez, and our executive producer is Jay Shaylor. Join us Monday.

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