2 Nov 2026 · 16m · Leila Fadel, A Martínez, Sam Greenblatt, Tamara Keith, Aya Batrawi · 19 quoted facts
On the eve of the 2026 midterms, the episode argues that the political map is tilting against Republicans. Democratic infighting in Michigan is a late complication. Sour voter moods over gas prices, inflation and an unpopular war with Iran have pushed traditionally red states into play.
The central tension is between Democratic momentum and Democratic division. Haley Stevens's last-minute endorsement of Republican Mike Rogers shows deep party fault lines over Israel and identity. Abroad, Gulf states fear that a possible new US strike on Iran could undo fragile diplomacy led by Qatar.
Haley Stevens, who lost the primary to Abdul El-Sayed by about a point, backed Republican Mike Rogers on the eve of the vote, citing El-Sayed's Israel comments. Reporter Sam Greenblatt says these splits over Israel and party identity will outlast Election Day and shape the 2028 nomination.
Greenblatt says holding the seat is key to Democrats retaking the Senate. That is why a late feud with staff resignations and Stevens's expulsion from the state party is so costly.
Tamara Keith cites gasoline above $4 a gallon, rising inflation, worries about AI and data centers, and an unpopular Iran war. She says midterms are usually referendums on the president, and this pushes races in Kansas, South Carolina, Iowa, Ohio and Alaska toward competitive.
A federal judge dismissed a Justice Department suit to block certification of the Senate result over a second 'Daniel Sullivan' on the ballot. The department is appealing, and it is unclear whether voters will blame Democrat Mary Peltola.
Aya Batrawi reports that Qatar is brokering a plan to halt ship attacks and restart US-Iran talks. UAE diplomat Anwar Gargash and other Arab officials warn that more strikes would complicate matters and not offer a quick way out.
Stevens, who lost the Democratic primary to Abdul El-Sayed, said it was a personal decision. She said El-Sayed had not done enough to reassure Jewish voters or disavow what she called dangerous rhetoric from some supporters.
Reporter Sam Greenblatt says holding this seat is key to Democrats retaking the Senate. The feud also shows divisions over Israel and the party's direction that will carry into the 2028 presidential race.
A second candidate named Daniel Sullivan is on the ballot alongside Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan. The Justice Department argued this would confuse voters and tried to block certification, but a judge dismissed the suit and the department is appealing.
According to Tamara Keith, voters are unhappy about gas prices above $4 a gallon, inflation, AI and data centers, corruption and the Iran war. Democrats are more motivated, and race ratings have shifted toward them, even in places Trump won by ten points or more.
Iran says Qatar has put a two-day plan on the table to stop attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and restart direct US-Iran talks. Gulf states fear Trump may strike again and say more military action would hurt the region and world energy supplies.
Stated by the speakers. Each quote matches the transcript, which shows what was said, not that it is true.
Haley Stevens lost the Michigan Democratic Senate primary to Abdul El-Sayed by about one percentage point and then endorsed him, but they never campaigned together apart from one unity event.
“Stevens endorsed El-Sayed after losing the primary by about a percentage point, but aside from a unity event right after that, they never campaigned together.”
On the Sunday before the election, Haley Stevens revoked her endorsement of Abdul El-Sayed and backed his Republican opponent in Michigan's Senate race.
“Congresswoman Haley Stevens, who lost the Democratic primaries to Abdul El-Sayed, has said Sunday she's not only revoking her endorsement of him, she's backing his GOP opponent.”
Haley Stevens's longtime chief of staff and many other staff members quit after she revoked her endorsement of Abdul El-Sayed.
“Stevens' longtime chief of staff announced he and many staff have now quit, saying they're shocked and heartbroken by her actions.”
The chair of the Michigan Democratic Party wrote that Haley Stevens was no longer a member of the party.
“And the Michigan Democratic Party chair wrote that Stevens was no longer a member.”
Haley Stevens said Abdul El-Sayed did not do enough to reassure Jewish voters or disavow rhetoric from some of his supporters that she called dangerous.
“Stevens says El-Sayed did not do enough to reassure these voters or to disavow rhetoric made by some of his supporters, she says, is dangerous.”
Mike Rogers's campaign focused its closing argument on portraying Abdul El-Sayed, who would be the first Muslim U.S. senator, as un-American.
“the Rogers campaign has focused its closing argument, trying to paint El-Sayed, who'd be the first Muslim U. S. senator, as un-American.”
Michigan will be one of the earliest states to weigh in on the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028.
“especially as Democrats prepare to choose a presidential nominee in 2028. One of the earliest primary states to weigh in will be Michigan.”
A U.S. district judge dismissed a Justice Department lawsuit that tried to block certification of Alaska's Senate election results.
“a U. S. district judge dismissed a Justice Department lawsuit that had tried to block the certification of the results of that race.”
The Justice Department argued that a second Daniel Sullivan on Alaska's Senate ballot would confuse voters.
“If the incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan doesn't win, DOJ tried to argue a second Daniel Sullivan on the ballot would confuse voters.”
The New York Times tied Mary Peltola's campaign to getting Daniel J. Sullivan on the ballot, which Peltola denies.
“Uh, the New York Times tied her campaign to getting Daniel J. Sullivan on the ballot, but Peltola denies it.”
Tamara Keith said the average price of regular gasoline was over $4 a gallon and inflation was rising as the midterms approached.
“The average price of regular gasoline is over $4 a gallon. Inflation is up, people are worried about artificial intelligence and data centers.”
After Trump's restoration of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool went badly, the Justice Department tried to prosecute people for vandalism before admitting the damage came from a rushed and botched job.
“the Justice Department tried to prosecute people before having to admit that the damage was actually the result of a rushed and botched job.”
Iran said Qatar had put a two-day plan on the table to halt attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and restart direct talks between the United States and Iran.
“They say that there is a two-day plan on the table to halt attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and to restart talks again between the U. S. and Iran directly.”
Donald Trump said one or two Iranian sites remained to be dealt with and that this could be done in ten minutes.
“he said there were still one or more or two sites, uh, to take care of, and that this could be done in quote ten minutes.”
Senior UAE diplomat Anwar Gargash said military solutions would only complicate the situation and would not provide a quick way out.
“Military solutions will only complicate the current, very complicated scene that we have and will not actually bring any quick off-ramp to the solution.”
On the first day of the war, U.S. strikes hit Iran and Israeli strikes killed Iran's supreme leader, and Iran retaliated against U.S. military sites including the Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain.
“on the first day of this war, when U. S. strikes hit Iran and Israeli strikes killed Iran's supreme leader, uh, Iran hit back at U. S. military sites across the region, including the fifth fleet here.”
The U.S. Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain has been reduced to a skeleton staff from about 8,000 military personnel before the war.
“this base is now down to a skeleton staff from what was 8,000 military personnel here before the war.”
Arab Gulf states are upgrading radar systems and racing to buy cheaper technology to shoot down Iranian drones and missiles because traditional interceptors are running low.
“So you have Arab states upping their radar systems and racing to purchase new technology, not just traditional interceptors that are running low”
Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish officials, who have a new defense alliance, visited Tehran the week before to urge de-escalation and dialogue.
“There was a visit last week to Tehran from the Saudis, Pakistanis, and Turks. They have a new defense alliance, those three countries”
Introduces the Michigan Senate shock days before the election and why a Democratic congresswoman backing a Republican is so damaging.
“A despicable betrayal.”
Greenblatt describes the collapsed unity event and Stevens's appearance with Mike Rogers, plus the Israel dispute behind it.
“Stevens emerged from that service with Rogers by her side”
Staff resignations and Stevens's removal from the state party show how serious the rift is, with consequences for 2028.
“This turmoil re-exposed fault lines within the party that have been deepening all year”
A judge threw out the Justice Department's attempt to block certification, though the department is appealing and the politics remain unsettled.
“dismissed a Justice Department lawsuit that had tried to block the certification”
Keith lays out the economic and political factors putting red-state Senate and House races in play.
“The average price of regular gasoline is over $4 a gallon.”
Keith recounts the earlier botched restoration controversy and calls the venue a strange choice for a closing argument.
“the Reflecting Pool was at the heart of controversy over the summer”
Iran says a two-day proposal could halt ship attacks and restart talks, while Trump hints at more strikes.
“there is a two-day plan on the table to halt attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz”
Batrawi describes damage to the US Fifth Fleet base and why Gulf states want pressure on Iran without more war.
“this base is now down to a skeleton staff from what was 8,000 military personnel”
How was your Halloween? How was, uh,
We have so much candy, candy and ramen, cause we give out ra- ramen too, ramen why do noodles,
you give out ramen?
cause that's what all the kids want. My
Really?
god, that's what, oh my god, yeah. One kid goes, Oh, I'd rather take the ramen because my parents don't wanna cook tonight.
Democratic congresswoman Haley Stevens switched sides and endorsed the Republican in Michigan's Senate race.
She lost the primary to Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. Her party is calling her a traitor. So what's behind her change of mind?
I'm Leila Fadel, that's a Martinez, and this is Up First from NPR News. A judge rejected the Justice Department's attempt to block Alaska from certifying its Senate election results. The fight centers on a spoiler candidate with the same name as the Republican incumbent. We'll look at how Alaska and other bread territories became battlegrounds this election cycle.
And Qatar has a new plan on the table to stop Iranian attacks on ships and reopen talks between the U. S. and Iran. Can diplomacy head off another round of war? Stay with us, we've got news you need to start your day.
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A despicable betrayal. That is how Democratic Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is describing the eleventh hour drama unfolding in the critical Michigan U. S. Senate race.
Yeah, Congresswoman Haley Stevens, who lost the Democratic primaries to Abdul El-Sayed, has said Sunday she's not only revoking her endorsement of him, she's backing his GOP opponent.
NPR congressional reporter Sam Greenblatt has been tracking the story from Michigan, joins us now from Ann Arbor. So Sam, I mean, this is the question I think everyone has on their mind. Why is this happening now, with just a few hours left in the campaign?
Yeah, so, a, we talk about October surprises in campaigns. You don't often get a November surprise, which is exactly what we have here. Stevens endorsed El-Sayed after losing the primary by about a percentage point, but aside from a unity event right after that, they never campaigned together. And in recent days, Stevens started ramping up criticism of El-Sayed. The two Democrats traded seething statements, an attempted unity appearance for a Sunday souls to the polls event was scheduled at a church in Detroit and then fell apart.
And instead of attending that event on Sunday with El-Sayed, she showed up at another Detroit church with his GOP opponent, Mike Rogers.
Yeah, so how is Stevens explaining her reversal?
Stevens emerged from that service with Rogers by her side and told reporters her endorsement was a personal decision. I'm not trying to harm anyone. I've worked really hard for Democrats. I'm not turning my back on Democrats. It is this one vote. When you see repeated hate, it's not acceptable. I still love the party. Everyone should be fired up for Democrats. El-Sayed has made comments around Israel that have unsettled some Jewish voters. He's a vocal critic, she's a staunch defender.
Stevens says El-Sayed did not do enough to reassure these voters or to disavow rhetoric made by some of his supporters, she says, is dangerous. But up to the last minute, multiple Democrats have said publicly that Stevens was affirming to them she was still backing El-Sayed. And, you know, as we talk about campaign rhetoric, I should also note the Rogers campaign has focused its closing argument, trying to paint El-Sayed, who'd be the first Muslim U. S. senator, as un-American.
What has, uh, El-Sayed had to say?
I was at the Detroit Church El-Sayed and Stevens had been slated to attend together, and El-Sayed told reporters there he does not think about Haley Stevens at all. None of this matters. You know what matters? You can go like fifteen minutes that way or fifteen minutes that way. And there are families who are preparing to send their kids to schools tomorrow that look like they did fifty years ago. They're worried about what they're gonna feed their kids for lunch.
I have met Democrats who did not support El-Sayed in the primary and struggled with their vote this fall. Now, will this latest drama sway a bunch of late deciders? Maybe not. Still, this cannot be the closing discussion El-Sayed's campaign was hoping for.
No, uh, uh, how are other Democrats then responding to the situation?
Holding this seat is key to Democrats retaking the Senate. A lot of them are fuming and have rallied around El-Sayed. Uh, Stevens' longtime chief of staff announced he and many staff have now quit, saying they're shocked and heartbroken by her actions. And the Michigan Democratic Party chair wrote that Stevens was no longer a member.
So this matters because a Senate majority is on the line. But do you think this episode will reverberate beyond Tuesday in any way?
This turmoil re-exposed fault lines within the party that have been deepening all year, not just over Israel, but about the party's identity going forward. Even if Democrats reclaim one or both chambers of Congress on Tuesday, that won't resolve these questions. So this debate is gonna continue, especially as Democrats prepare to choose a presidential nominee in 2028. One of the earliest primary states to weigh in will be Michigan.
That is NPR congressional reporter Sam Greenblatt. Thanks a lot, Sam.
You're welcome.
Michigan is obviously not the only hotly contested race that'll be decided by voters this week.
Well, there are plenty of warning signs for Republicans. Many key races also appear to be very close.
NPR senior political correspondent Temer Keith is following all the twists and turns. Joins us now. So, Temer, let's start with the Alaska Senate race, where the, uh, double Dan Sullivan drama is at a fever pitch. Uh, what's, uh, the latest there?
Yeah, a U. S. district judge dismissed a Justice Department lawsuit that had tried to block the certification of the results of that race. If the incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan doesn't win, DOJ tried to argue a second Daniel Sullivan on the ballot would confuse voters. The Justice Department is appealing. Um, that's the legal side of things. In terms of politics, it is an open question of whether Alaska voters will punish the Democrat in that race, Mary Peltola, for the whole Dan's Sullivan situation.
Uh, the New York Times tied her campaign to getting Daniel J. Sullivan on the ballot, but Peltola denies it. President Trump and Republicans are making a very big deal of it, though.
Yeah, w- so more broadly, what's the political environment looking like as the election season winds down?
Voters are unhappy, and that has taken an election that was on favorable ground for Republicans Between between
a Senate map that runs through red states
a Senate map that runs through red states and and all the gerrymandering in House districts and moved it into a very uncomfortable place for the President and his party. The average price of regular gasoline is over $4 a gallon. Inflation is up, people are worried about artificial intelligence and data centers. The war with Iran is unpopular and looming over everything, and voters are increasingly voicing concerns about corruption. The message from Democrats is if you're unhappy, give us a chance to force change.
And the pitch from Republicans, as summed up by House Speaker Mike Johnson yesterday, is this is a contrast election between common sense and crazy. But midterms aren't usually about contrast, they are almost always referendums on the President and his party. all
All right, so what does that referendum look like on the ground?
All year, Democrats have been more motivated to vote than Republicans, and we're seeing that reflected in early voting data. Uh, the nonpartisan groups that rate races have continued moving their ratings toward Democrats. There are House battlegrounds in districts where President Trump won by ten points or more just, uh, two years ago, and in the Senate, states like Kansas and South Carolina could be in play. Iowa and Ohio
And Alaska are toss-ups, and Republicans are left putting a lot of hope in the bad blood among Democrats in Michigan, giving their candidate, uh, a better chance there.
giving their candidate, uh, a better chance there.
So how is, uh, President Trump closing out the election?
You know, he's actually set to deliver remarks this afternoon at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool. According to a White House official, it's going to be sort of a combo closing argument and update on his projects in Washington, D. C. And a reminder that the Reflecting Pool was at the heart of controversy over the summer after Trump hastily restored it and then blamed vandals when the restoration went south. Uh, the Justice Department tried to prosecute people before having to admit that the damage was actually the result of a rushed and botched job.
It's fixed again, but remains a glaring symbol of Trump's focus on aesthetics. You know, this is just a strange choice of venue at a time when a majority of voters say the president hasn't paid enough attention to the country's most important problems.
Right, that's NPR's Tamara Keith. Tam, thank you very much.
You're welcome.
After Tuesday's elections, President Trump could decide to bomb Iran again. It's an option he's floated and one that's been discussed with Israel.
But he hasn't yet made a decision. The uncertainty about the possibility of a new round of attacks on Iran has U. S. partners in the Gulf on edge and bracing for more war.
Join us from Bahrain is NPR international correspondent Aya Batrawi. So, Aya, Qatar's been leading intense negotiations over the past seventy-two hours with Iran to try and stave off another round of fighting. How's that been going?
Yeah, and we've been here before, right? So Qatar is tight-lipped, but the Iranians are making statements. They say that there is a two-day plan on the table to halt attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and to restart talks again between the U. S. and Iran directly. But Iran says what comes next hinges on the U. S. response to what's in this latest offer. And President Trump over the weekend was at a Halloween party at Mar-a-Lago, and he told reporters that the U.
S. had already taken out Iran's Navy and Air Force and nuclear sites. But he said there were still one or more or two sites, uh, to take care of, and that this could be done in quote ten minutes. But the view from the Gulf is that attacks will wreak more havoc on the region and world energy supplies. I was at a security summit over the weekend in Bahrain, and here is what senior UAE diplomat Anwar Gargash said.
Military solutions will only complicate the current, very complicated scene that we have and will not actually bring any quick off-ramp to the solution. So this idea that this is not going to lead to a quick off-ramp by more military strikes was echoed by other senior Arab officials at the summit. You know, these U. S. partners, um, wanna see more pressure on on Iran, but not more strikes.
Mentioned that you're in Bahrain right now, uh, that's a country that's really been hit hard by Iran in this war. What are you seeing there?
Yeah, and Bahrain is a small island nation in the Persian Gulf, with Iran to its, you know, east, a much bigger neighbor there. And it is home to the U. S. Navy's fifth fleet. But on the first day of this war, when U. S. strikes hit Iran and Israeli strikes killed Iran's supreme leader, uh, Iran hit back at U. S. military sites across the region, including the fifth fleet here. And you can't take pictures of the damage, it's illegal here to do that, but I rode right past the logistics hub of the fifth fleet, and this is what I saw from the car on the highway.
From the highway, you can literally see a radar that's been damaged. You can see what looks like, um, some kind of storage facilities or some kind of warehouses that have been, um, badly hit. Uh, they look charred. Uh, I mean,
It's all there. The damage is just there.
and a this base is now down to a skeleton staff from what was 8,000 military personnel here before the war.
Wow. Now, given that, uh, it it is very unpredictable right now, uh, and no one knows what President Trump is gonna do. How are Gulf countries dealing with this?
So you have Arab states upping their radar systems and racing to purchase new technology, not just traditional interceptors that are running low, but, you know, they're looking for things that can more cheaply shoot down Iranian drones and cruise and ballistic missiles. But they are also talking directly with Iran. There was a visit last week to Tehran from the Saudis, Pakistanis, and Turks. They have a new defense alliance, those three countries, and they made clear to Iran that they want de-escalation and dialogue, not more war.
So, again, these Gulf Arab states, they want U. S. pressure on Iran. Think of, like, U. S. economic sanctions, but they do not want a return to war with Iran, and Iran has vowed powerful counterstrikes if it's hit.
That's NPR's Aya Batrawi in Manama, Bahrain. Thank you very much, Aya.
Thanks, a.
Don't forget to tune in to this week's Sunday story for an election primer. We're halfway through Trump's final term in office, and he sits at a near historic low approval rating. Republican redistricting efforts may fall short as voters shift away from the president and his party.
These new lines were drawn based on But President Trump's
as his second term has gone on,
2024 base, and since then, key components of that base he built have soured on him.
This week, dissatisfied voters take to the ballot to decide the future of America. Listen to yesterday's episode of the Sunday story right now in NPR's Up First podcast. And that's up first for Monday, November second. I'm A Martínez.
And I'm Leila Fadel. Today's episode of Up First was edited by Jason Breslow, Brett Neely, Miguel Macias, Mohamad ElBardicy, and Taylor Haney. It was produced by Ziad Buchh and Nia Dumas. Our director is Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Neisha Heinis. Our technical director is Carleigh Strange. Join us again tomorrow.
This week on the NPR Politics podcast, a massive blue wave, a history-making realignment in American politics. What will Democrats do with their power, both in Washington in states around the and
country? Listen as we unpack what a new political era could look like this week on the NPR Politics podcast.
Oh, Kevin, it feels good to be back. It sure does, Casey. And what a time. The world is talking about AI and what's going on in Silicon Valley, and we are here with a new show to tell you all about it. That's right, Kevin, on our new show, Machine Guys, twice a week, we'll be bringing you the biggest news in tech and bring you unmatched access to the real titans of this industry. You can find Machine Guys from NPR on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Thinking about learning to be a pickpocket for his new movie and how growing up in a volatile home helped him as an actor.
My brother said to me once, I've given you a lot of material. And I said, You know, you're really right, you're right. I said, but at a high cost.
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