Midterm Spending Blitz, GDP & Inflations Reports, Israel Election Deadlock & Iran War

This election is the most expensive in the U. S. ever. Oh, I'm sorry. Speaking Layla is stunned by the statement.

what? I thought we were getting money out of politics.

This election is the most expensive in the U. S. ever.

In Kansas, ad spending is up ten times what it was a few weeks ago. We track where else that money is being spent in the final stretch before election day.

I mean, A Martínez, that's Leila Fadel. This is Up First from NPR News. Today we get the last big economic reports before the midterms. Growth is expected to be strong, but prices are rising faster than wages, so Americans are not feeling it.

And with nearly all the votes counted, Israel's election is deadlocked. No one bloc has a clear path to form a new government and choose the next prime minister. Why could attacking Iran break the impasse? Stay with us, we'll give you the news you need to start your day.

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In the final days of the midterms, the data suggests the question is less about if there's a Democratic wave, but how high it could crest.

Yeah, Democrats continue to invest money in Republican-heavy House and Senate races that they feel are in play. Republicans are matching those investments, and President Trump is closing out the campaign visiting states he won by large margins in 2024.

NPR's Stephen Fowler has been on the trail and he joins us now from Atlanta. Good morning, Stephen. Good morning, So last night, former President Barack Obama was in Georgia campaigning for the Democrats there. His closing message talked about affordability.

If you thought everything costs too much before, guess what? Everything is more expensive now.

Stephen, I is it really that simple?

pretty much. I mean, Obama's argument, like most Democrats around the country, is that things are expensive. Trump and the Republican Party made choices that made things more expensive, and so they've made promises that have not been kept. It's a little different than the 2018 strategy, and it's not purely an anti-Trump message because there is an acknowledgement of sorts that during the Biden administration, things were expensive too, and that people who voted for Trump could be forgiven for believing a new administration would fix it.

And look, we've got polling to back this up. Affordability is a top concern. Republicans and Trump are unpopular, and voters tend to think Democrats are better than Republicans at handling these issues too.

Let's do another check-in on where the key races are. Start with Georgia, where you and Obama were.

In the Georgia Senate race, Senator John Ossoff is expected to win. The question's more about the governor's race, where billionaire healthcare executive Rick Jackson, the Republican, has spent nearly a quarter $1 billion on his run. It's one of close to a dozen states we're looking at where there is a Senate and governor race combo where polls show voters could pick one from each party and split their ticket.

What about the House? What places are both parties focused on this last week?

Looking at the numbers from Ad Impact, I found that there are 77,000 districts where both Republicans and Democrats are spending more than six figures in these final days to get out their final message. That includes expected toss-ups and seats in really conservative areas like the Little Rock, Arkansas area and the western part of Montana. These are other places where Trump comfortably won in 2024 and that voters are now uncomfortable with the direction of the country.

And what about control of the Senate?

Man, things have changed so fast, even from a month ago. Take Kansas, where ad spending has increased tenfold over the last few weeks. The Democratic Senate arm is sending more money to Mississippi. President Trump's headed to South Carolina today to campaign for the Senate race there, and he announced a tele-rally for the Louisiana Senate race set for the night before the election. And what do these things have in common? President Trump won them by around twenty-ish points in 2024.

And this year, there is a huge, stronger than normal Black voter turnout and signs of depressed Republican turnout in these states.

Now, millions of people have already cast their ballots. Are there other notable trends you're seeing in the data to watch for?

I mean, there's also increased turnout among Latino voters, young voters in Democratic-leaning areas, not so much in Republican areas, and among people who aren't super voters who show up to vote in basically every primary and other election. That creates a lot of uncertainty around what the final electorate looks like and

points to concerns for Republicans who would have to rely on a larger election day turnout to keep things competitive.

That's NPR's Stephen Fowler in Atlanta. Thank you, Stephen.

Thank you.

Today we get the last major pieces of data about the economy ahead of the midterms.

That includes whether the overall economy grew faster in the summer than in the spring, but many people are feeling gloomy about their personal economies. And the other data point we'll get is on inflation.

NPR's Stephen Bissaha joins us now. So Stephen, let's start with the big picture, gross domestic product or GDP. Economists think, uh, what it's going to be up?

Yeah, there's always room for a surprise here, but the question right now is how much faster the economy grew. We are talking about the broadest measure of the economy here from the Commerce Department, gross domestic product. This one covers July, August, and September. In the spring, GDP grew at an annual pace of 2.2%, which was already pretty solid. So we're waiting to see if the economy picked up on that growth and by how much.

And why are economists expecting GDP to be higher?

Yeah, two reasons. First, there is the continued massive investment from the tech industry into artificial intelligence. We're talking companies like Meta building all these massive data centers. That does boost the economy. I mean, think of all the construction jobs and others needed to build some of these places. Second is that shoppers keep shopping. Consumer spending is the biggest portion of GDP. But this economic growth does feel delicate. That's according to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.

We're growing, the economy's moving forward, but it's a very, very fragile growth. It doesn't feel like we're kicking in on all cylinders.

He blames that fragility on inflation and ties it to the Trump administration's policies, like tariffs and the U. S. war against Iran, which has driven up energy prices.

Since you brought up inflation, Stephen, how high is it and what are we gonna learn today?

Yeah, inflation is still higher than the Federal Reserve wants. A few weeks ago, we got data showing consumer prices rose 3.7% in September from a year earlier. That was from the Labor Department and is the most widely reported read on inflation. Today, we get a separate reading on inflation for September, this one from the Commerce Department, and it's the one the Fed pays the most attention to. And it's not just that prices are going up, it's that prices are going up faster than people's wages.

People like Siri Steven, she's a resale store manager in Decorah, Iowa. She says higher prices mean her family can't put money away for emergencies.

It's more noticeable now with, like, the price of gas going up and the price of food going up and bills like our utilities go up. Like, everything is increasing and wages just aren't really increasing with that.

All right, so consumers are not happy about inflation, neither is the Fed, and yet the central bank decided not to raise interest rates yesterday. Why?

And so the Fed already raised interest rates once in September, and that was their way of applying the brakes to the economy and slow down inflation. But the Fed knows even a small rate hike can be painful for consumers. It often leads to rising mortgage rates and credit card interest rates, both are already high. So the central bank wants to be cautious, it wants to make sure it's just tapping those brakes, not slamming them. And then, you know, there's the midterms right around the corner.

The Fed denies that elections play any role in their decisions, but economists do believe they're reluctant to cause any waves right before Americans head to the polls.

All right, that's NPR's Stephen Bissaha. Stephen, thanks.

Thanks, A.

Israel's election has reached a deadlock.

More than 90% of the votes have been counted, and none of the candidates have a clear path to forming a coalition. So what will it take to break the impasse? Now, one option could be renewed war with Iran.

Let's break this down with NPR's Daniel Estrin in Tel Aviv. Good morning, Daniel.

Good morning, Leila.

First, let's just talk about the election results now that the vast majority of votes have been counted. Where do things stand?

Well, neither side has a clear majority. The remaining votes yet to be counted are not expected to change that. Parties need sixty-one seats in Parliament for a majority. Netanyahu and his allies so far have won fifty-three seats. Gadi Eisenkot and his allies have won forty-eight seats, so neither has the sixty-one seat majority that they'd need to form a government.

So what could break the impasse?

Well, uh, there are some options here. Eisenkot's camp could win if they would be willing to partner with Arab-led parties, which have gained about nineteen seats in Parliament. That is a record for parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel, but that does not appear to be likely. It's too risky politically for Eisenkot. There has been a lot of demonization of Arab political leaders in Israel. Another option is that Israel could hold repeat elections, but Eisenkot doesn't want that either.

And, you know, the opposition would probably have a very hard time getting out the vote again if they couldn't beat Netanyahu this time around. So it seems that Eisenkot would be under a lot of pressure now to agree to enter a unity E- government with Netanyahu. And what could pressure him to do that is if Israel launches a new war with Iran. That is what one expert told me, Danny Citrinovich. He used to head the Iran desk in Israeli military intelligence.

Netanyahu definitely has an incentive to go to war. He understand that returning to war against Iran while forming a government will serve his interests.

And Netanyahu actually campaigned on this vow to join the U. S. and attack Iran.

How would attacking Iran help Netanyahu stay in power?

Well, we've seen Netanyahu use this playbook before twice. He has taken advantage of an emergency situation to enter power sharing deals. Once was In 2020, during COVID, Netanyahu persuaded his main political rival to enter a unity government. And the next time was right after the October seventh attacks. Netanyahu actually persuaded Eisenkot himself to join an emergency war cabinet. So he could do something similar now. It depends if Trump agrees to actually strike Iran together with Israel.

Our reporting last week tells us that the U. S. and Israel could be preparing for a possible attack as early as next week after U. S. midterm elections.

But on election night, Eisenkot called on Netanyahu not to go to war with Iran for political interest. So would an Iran attack actually convince Eisenkot to join forces with Netanyahu?

You know, Layla, the moment Israeli fighter jets are actually in the air attacking Iran, Israeli political leaders, we've seen this in the last round, they unify to support the troops. So it will be very hard for Eisenkot to oppose a war if it's already happening. We may see Eisenkot and opposition parties now race against the clock to do something else, to try to gain political leverage in Parliament. They can appoint a new speaker, they can start an October seventh investigation commission.

That's very contentious for Netanyahu. All these moves could give Eisenkot an advantage for when he may need to come to the table and negotiate

The terms of potentially sharing power with Netanyahu.

NPR's Daniel Estrin in Tel Aviv. Thank you, Daniel.

You're welcome.

And that's up first for Thursday, October twenty-ninth. I'm Leila Faldin.

And I mean, A Martínez, today's episode of Up First was edited by Megan Pratz, Rafael Nam, Tina Kraja, Mohamad ElBardicy, and Alice Woelfle, was produced by Iman Maani and Nia Dumas. Our director is Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Carleigh Strange. Our technical director is Zac Coleman, and our deputy executive producer is Kelley Dickens. Join us again tomorrow.

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This week on the NPR Politics Podcast, a massive blue wave, a history-making realignment in American politics. What will Democrats do with their power, both in Washington and in states around the country? Listen as we unpack what a new political era could look like this week on the NPR Politics Podcast.