2023
Lari Hämäläinen said that in 2023 AI models could perform about twenty seconds of work by a human developer.
“in 2023, the models could perform twenty seconds of work by a human developer, which was negligible, right?”
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Lari Hämäläinen
9 facts from 1 episode, in date order. These are what speakers said on the shows, each linked to the moment it was said. They aren't independently verified.
2030
Lari Hämäläinen said US data centers are projected to consume about 10 to 13% of US energy by 2030, up from about 2% the prior year.
“When we go to twenty thirty, the projection to currently is about ten to 13%, depending on the level we end up.”
Undated
Lari Hämäläinen said US electricity generation capacity has not really increased in the last thirty years.
“in an economy where actually the generation capacity has not increased really in the last thirty years.”
Undated
Lari Hämäläinen said about 50% of the generative AI workloads running in data centers now come from programming.
“50% of workloads today that are that gen AI uses, so that I use to run the data centers, actually come from programming.”
Undated
Lari Hämäläinen said the compute used to train leading AI models increases roughly four to five times each year.
“We're putting four to five times more compute to train the models.”
Undated
Lari Hämäläinen described a scenario in which a company with 100,000 employees has 50,000 employees in three years, alongside 500,000 AI agents.
“If you have 100,000 employees as a CEO today, and let's say three years from now, which is actually in our projections, a viable scenario, you might have only 50,000 employees”
Undated
Lari Hämäläinen said AI models crossed a task length of about five hours of human developer work in the previous fall.
“And last fall, we crossed about five hour task length threshold.”
Undated
Lari Hämäläinen said a group of developers that was 20% slower with AI in an earlier benchmark showed a 20% productivity increase when re-benchmarked in February.
“when the same group was ben benchmarked this February from minus 20%, so them slowing down, we actually have gone to 20% productivity increase.”
Undated
Lari Hämäläinen said the McKinsey Global Institute wrote a book called A Century of Plenty arguing that long-run technological change brings large societal and economic benefits.
“We wrote a book by MGI, where Hank is a director, called The Century of Plenty”
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