Undated
Thomas Holmes says refitting complex models can produce rate impacts on some policyholders that insurers cannot explain.
“you're going to have some people that have impacts that you just can't explain”
Topic
Thomas Holmes
14 facts from 1 episode, in date order. These are what speakers said on the shows, each linked to the moment it was said. They aren't independently verified.
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Thomas Holmes uses Netflix recommendations to illustrate a case where inconsistent model output has low consequences, unlike insurance pricing.
“And for something like a vastly different Netflix recommendation, that's fine.”
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Thomas Holmes gives a 200% rate increase caused by a refit model finding a different niche as an example of an unexplainable pricing result.
“why did this person get 200% rate increase? And the answer is the models did something different, they found some different niche spot.”
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Thomas Holmes says wider rate dislocation causes more policyholders to leave, and that retention is extremely valuable to insurers.
“everyone insurance knows that the wider your dislocation, the more people leave, and retention is gold for insurers.”
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Thomas Holmes says no single AI governance framework exists.
“there is no single AI governance framework. There just simply isn't there.”
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Thomas Holmes recalls a hundred-question model governance questionnaire in which about 60% of the questions did not apply.
“answer the these these hundred questions about your model. And about 60% of them were were NA.”
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Thomas Holmes defines an opinionated framework as one customized to an industry rather than a general algorithm.
“it is customized to your industry and not just throwing out this this general algorithm for for use”
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Thomas Holmes says he has built software tools as an actuary but is not a good software engineer.
“As an actuary, I have built tools. I am not a very good software engineer.”
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Thomas Holmes says the maintenance costs and technical debt of in-house tools are greatly underestimated.
“maintenance costs and this technical debt are just criminally underrated.”
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Thomas Holmes says companies should build in-house only things that are proprietary and highly differentiated.
“there are things to build in-house, and those should be the things that are proprietary and highly differentiated.”
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Thomas Holmes says he has not seen anyone rebuild Microsoft Excel, using it to illustrate not rebuilding commodity tools.
“I haven't seen anyone rebuild Excel. Everyone uses it.”
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Thomas Holmes says actuaries asked where their rating plan lives may point to an Excel file, showing there is no single source of truth.
“When I go to an actuary and ask them, Where is your rating plan? Well, it's an Excel.”
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Thomas Holmes says re-programming actuarial rates for the rating engine causes errors through handoffs and re-implementation of rating logic.
“It's a huge source of error because there's not only a a handoff, there's re-implementation of of rating logic”
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Thomas Holmes says actuaries should own the rating order of calculation throughout the process, with IT handling data in and out and implementation testing.
“But that rating order of calculation can, and I think should be owned by the actuaries the entire way through the process.”
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