Jon Favreau said the New York Times election model projected Democrats controlling the U.S. Senate 55 to 45.
“the New York Times model has this controlling the Senate fifty five, forty five”
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Jon Favreau
7 episodes · 93 quoted claims
Jon Favreau said the New York Times needle estimated Democrats winning the national House vote by about 13 points.
“the New York Times needle estimates up to like thirteen a D plus thirteen”
Jon Favreau reported that Democrat Annie Andrews won South Carolina's Senate race by about four points, taking the seat long held by Lindsey Graham.
“Annie Andrews pulling out a four point win in South Carolina, um, Lindsey Graham's old seat”
Jon Favreau reported that Democrat Adam Hamilton won Kansas's Senate race by about five points, defeating Republican Roger Marshall.
“Adam Hamilton cruising to a five point win in Kansas.”
Jon Favreau said Democrat Angie Nixon came within three points of Senator Ashley Moody in Florida, a state Donald Trump carried by thirteen points in 2024.
“came within three points of Ashley Moody, beating the polls in a state that Trump carried by thirteen points in 2024”
Jon Favreau said that in Louisiana's Senate race, Republican Julia Letlow led Democrat Jamie Davis by just under five points, in a state Donald Trump won by twenty-two.
“Democrat Jamie Davis is losing to Julia Letlow by just under five points. That's a state Trump won by twenty two points.”
Jon Favreau said Democrat Gina Hinojosa won the Texas governor's race, defeating incumbent Republican Greg Abbott.
“Gina Inahosa, Uh, is gonna be the governor of Texas now, defeating Greg Abbott by a bunch.”
Jon Favreau said Democrat Amy Acton led Republican Vivek Ramaswamy by about five and a half points in Ohio's governor's race.
“Amy Acton beat that piece of fucking shit Vivek Ramaswamy, uh, by five and a half points so far.”
Jon Favreau said Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms beat Rick Jackson by more than eight points in Georgia and would become the first Black woman governor in American history.
“Kisha Lance Bottoms handily beat Rick Jackson by more than eight to become the first Black woman governor in American history.”
Jon Favreau said Kristi Noem tweeted that Republicans lost because they were too successful in the first year of the Trump administration, echoing Larry Kudlow.
“This is an actual, an actual quote from Christy Noem. And she she tweeted this. Larry Kudlow is correct. We were too successful the first year of the Trump administration”
Jon Favreau said incoming House Oversight chairman Robert Garcia issued a two-word press release reading "lawyer up."
“a two word press release from incoming House Oversight chairman Robert Garcia. Just says, lawyer up”
Jon Favreau said no president since Harry Truman has been as unpopular as Donald Trump heading into Election Day.
“No president since Harry Truman has been this unpopular heading into election day.”
Jon Favreau argued that if Trump had not been hostile to Brian Kemp, Kemp might have run for Senate in Georgia, which would have made the race hardest for Jon Ossoff.
“maybe Kemp would have run for Senate. And that probably would have given Ossoff the toughest race.”
Jon Favreau said there was reporting that Benjamin Netanyahu was pressuring Donald Trump to resume strikes on Iran as soon as the week of the midterm election.
“lots of reporting the last few days that Netanyahu is pressuring Trump to start striking Iran again as soon as this week.”
Tucker Carlson reported, citing anonymous sources, that Donald Trump might be within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran's Pickaxe Mountain site.
“reporting from Tucker Carlson, who cited anonymous sources close to Trump saying that the president may be within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran's pickaxe mountain”
Representative Haley Stevens endorsed Republican Mike Rogers on the Sunday before the election, attending church with him and holding a press conference.
“Haley Stevens' uh, shocking decision to endorse Mike Rogers on Sunday morning, which included going to church with him and holding a press conference afterwards.”
In the final Times/Siena Michigan poll, Abdul El-Sayed won 96% of Kamala Harris voters and Mike Rogers won 2% of them.
“Abdul is winning 96% of Kamala Harris voters, and only 2% of Kamala Harris voters are voting for Mike Rogers.”
Adam Hamilton's campaign has attacked Roger Marshall over his history, as an OBGYN, of sending patients' unpaid accounts to debt collectors, in some cases leading to jail.
“Roger Marshall's history of sending debt collectors after his patients back when he was an OBGYN, uh, and in some cases, leading to them, uh, going to jail.”
Jon Favreau said the Kansas Bill of Rights bars imprisonment for debt, but that patients were arrested after missing court dates tied to debt collection.
“it is in the Kansas Bill of Rights that you can't go to jail for having debt.”
A federal judge dismissed a Justice Department lawsuit, ordered by Trump, that sought to block certification of Alaska's Senate election if Dan Sullivan lost.
“a federal judge dismissed the Department of Justice's Trump ordered lawsuit trying to block the election certification if the incumbent Sullivan lost.”
Ken Paxton's campaign appeared to cancel the final event of its 'Come and Take It' tour, which had been planned for the Alamo.
“His campaign appeared to cancel the final event of his come and take it tour, which was set to take place at the Alamo.”
In the Times/Siena Texas poll, James Talarico's net favorability was about plus ten and Ken Paxton's about minus twenty-one.
“His favorable rating in this poll is like plus ten, and Paxton is, uh, negative twenty one.”
Jon Favreau said Ohio apparently set a midterm early-voting record.
“the state has apparently set a a midterms early voting record.”
Jon Favreau said Maine independents, who split 47-47 in an earlier Times poll when Susan Collins led by three, now favor Troy Jackson 52% to 41%.
“The independents in the poll, uh, the times poll where she was leading by three, were forty seven, forty seven. It is now fifty two, forty one in favor of Troy Jackson in this poll.”
Jon Favreau said Democrats spent more than $200 million in Texas alone and treated that as a test of how much money matters in politics.
“the 200 million plus that they spent in just Texas alone doesn't do it”
Jon Favreau said the Cook Political Report rated five Republican-held Senate seats that Trump carried by more than ten points as toss-ups.
“Cook has five Republican-held Senate seats in the toss-up column that Trump carried by more than ten points, which is wild.”
Jon Favreau said no election in at least sixteen years has seen the president's party lose more than one Senate seat the president carried by double digits.
“No election in at least the last sixteen years has seen the party in the White House lose more than one Senate seat that the president had carried by double digits.”
A New York Times story reported that aide Natalie Harp works out of Donald Trump's private dining room and that Bill Pulte's role was described by an official as court jester.
“Natalie Harp, who apparently now works out of Trump's private dining room, uh, and Bill Pulte, whose role one Trump official described as court jester.”
Donald Trump dictated a 1,300-word post criticizing Bill Maher to aide Natalie Harp after watching Maher's monologue.
“we did find out that Trump dictated the 1,300 word Bill Maher tirade to Natalie after watching Bill Maher's monologue.”
A New York Times/Siena poll of South Carolina showed Democrat Annie Andrews and Senator Lindsey Graham tied at 48 percent each.
“the South Carolina one was pretty amazing because it has the race in a dead heat with Annie Andrews and Darline Graham at forty eight each”
The final Times/Siena poll in 2020 showed Lindsey Graham ahead of Jamie Harrison by six points, and Graham won by ten.
“the Times Sienna final poll in 2020 did have, um, it had Graham, uh, ahead of Harrison by six, you know, he ended up winning by ten.”
A Times/Siena Minnesota poll showed Peggy Flanagan leading by fourteen points, the largest lead of any poll for her.
“it has Peggy Flanagan up fourteen points, um, largest lead any poll has shown for her.”
Nate Silver's forecast model gave Democrats about a 95 percent chance of flipping the House and about 80 percent for the Senate at the time of recording.
“Flipper Nate's model has the chance of Democrats flipping the House at 95%, uh, and the Senate is around 80%.”
Donald Trump canceled an in-person rally in Kansas and replaced it with telephone rallies, including one on election eve for the Republican Senate candidate in Louisiana.
“Trump just canceled his in-person rally in Kansas this weekend, and he's replacing it with a series of tell rallies, including one on election eve for the Republican Senate candidate in Louisiana.”
Jon Favreau said Trump posted photos of the government-owned East Potomac golf course, which he has been trying to renovate despite a judge's orders.
“Trump spent several hours truthing photos of the government owned golf course, uh, East Potomac, that he's been trying to renovate over over a judge's orders.”
The Times reported that Mary Peltola's team worked with the Democratic Senate campaign committee to find other people named Dan Sullivan to enter the Alaska Senate race.
“Peltola's team worked with the Democratic Senate campaign committee last summer to find other people named Dan Sullivan to get into the race and draw votes away from the incumbent”
Alaska's Republican governor ordered an investigation into the Dan Sullivan ballot effort even though an Alaska court had ruled the second Sullivan could appear on the ballot.
“On Thursday morning, the Republican governor of Alaska ordered an investigation into the effort, even though an Alaska court already ruled that other Dan Sullivan could be on the ballot.”
If no Alaska Senate candidate reaches 50 percent, the ranked-choice tabulation would occur on November 18.
“if Alaska goes to a ranked choice tabulation because, uh, no one hits 50%, um, November eighteenth is the date they do that.”
The federal government tried to force California to set aside ballots it claimed were from non-citizens, but an appeals court ruled it could not.
“They also tried to, uh, force California to set aside, um, a bunch of ballots that the federal government is claiming are non citizen ballots, though an appeals court just said, no, they can't do that.”
Court filings said ICE and FBI agents will not serve as poll monitors, while ATF, DEA and Bureau of Prisons officers will.
“according to government court filings, ICE and FBI agents will not be acting as poll monitors, but ATF, DEA, and Bureau of Prisons officers will”