Democrats Lead In NPR Poll, Preparations For Election Challenge, Israel Voting Begins

Democrats maintain their edge in the race to control the House.

An NPR survey gives Democrats an eight-point lead among likely voters, but younger voters are not enthused. Does that leave the Senate out of reach?

I'm Michel Martin, that's Steve Inskeep, and this is Up First from NPR News. President Trump routinely claims fraud in election after election, his allies never found widespread evidence. Now he's using the power of the federal government to amplify his claims. How are election officials preparing to respond?

Also, Israelis vote in the first election since the October seventh attacks. Plane loads of people have flown home to cast their ballots. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under pressure. What coalition, if any, could replace him? Stay with us, we've got the news you need to start your day.

This week on the NPR Politics podcast, a massive blue wave, a history-making realignment in American politics. What will Democrats do with their power, both in Washington and in states around the country? Listen as we unpack what a new political era could look like this week on the NPR Politics podcast.

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Election day is one week away. A new NPR PBS News Marist poll is out this morning with insights into how likely voters are viewing this election.

Here to break down the numbers is NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro. Domenico, welcome.

Hey, good morning, Michelle.

So what does the poll say about where things stand?

Well, it's a lot of what we've been seeing, you know, Democrats have an eight-point advantage among likely voters in this poll. It's on what's known as the generic congressional ballot. Uh, that's when pollsters ask who would you vote for if the election was held today in your district? Historically, that eight-point edge is a pretty big number that Democrats need to do well. President Trump continues to be unpopular, with an approval rating among likely voters at 40%, which is actually a tick up or two from what it's been with registered voters.

But it's not surprising when voters continue to say that the cost of living is their top issue, as they do in our poll. And Democrats also retain an enthusiasm advantage overall. Democrats are ten points more likely than Republicans to say that they are, quote, very enthusiastic about voting.

Would you say that this puts Democrats in a strong position heading into election night?

I mean, generally, yes, you know, with some caveats, you know, everyone would rightly be shocked if Democrats don't win the House at this point. You know, the polling error would have to be bigger than almost anything we've ever seen before, but there could be limits to how big those gains are that Democrats would make. And the Senate is genuinely a toss-up. When we look at the targeted seats in the House, nine and ten are in districts that Trump won and in the Senate, remember, just because the landscape has shifted toward Democrats doesn't mean those toss-ups are definitely going to go their way.

At the end of the day, toss-ups are toss-ups for a reason, after all. So Democrats could net a seat or two in the Senate, which would not be enough. They need four, or they could win six or seven. Plus, again, Democrats are playing on red turf. All five Senate toss-up seats are in states that Trump won by double digits on average in 2024.

So Democrats have a solid outlook, but is there anything in the numbers in our poll that might give them some caution and Republicans some hope?

Yeah, I mean, there is, I mean, when you look at key groups for each party that are very enthusiastic to vote, for example, some key Democratic pillar groups drop off. Young voters, just 42% say that they're very enthusiastic about voting. Independents who have soured on Trump, uh, just 48% said that. Non-white voters, just 53%. All are lagging behind some more pro-Trump groups like MAGA voters, white women without college degrees, and white evangelical voters.

That happens in midterms, where traditionally younger voters and Black and Latino voters turn out at disproportionately lower rates than in presidential elections. That said, there's been a political realignment in this country under Trump, where college-educated whites have been siding with Democrats, and they show up at, you know, much larger numbers, uh, proportionally to vote. So midterms, even more so than presidential elections, are something of a volatile stew of uncertainty, really.

So we mentioned at the top that there's one week until election day, but we might be waiting for results, you know, longer than that, right? So did the poll get at that?

Right, you know, patience is really gonna be key here because the outcome of lots of races probably won't be known before people go to bed on election night. And there's nothing nefarious about that. That's just how vote counting goes, especially when we have so many close races in this country. You know, we asked about trust in elections, and we found that large majorities of all political groups said that they thought that their state and local governments would run a fair and accurate election.

Republicans, though, were 20 points less likely to say so than Democrats, and they were also 20 points less likely than Democrats to believe that their candidate should definitely accept the results of the election. You know, that could lead to a huge mess if Trump again stokes the flames of false election conspiracies, as he did after the 2020 election that led eventually to January 6th and the violence at the Capitol. There's also a lot in here in this poll on guns, immigration, government efficiency, and AI.

That's all worth reading. All of it's posted to npr.org.

That is NPR's senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro. Domenico, thank you.

You're welcome.

If Democrats should win Tuesday's voting, their next task will be securing the vote.

The Trump administration has used the federal government's power to highlight the president's constant claims of voter fraud. Today, a judge hears arguments over the administration's effort to force California to set aside some ballots. The administration wants that treatment for people it claims are likely not citizens. An appeals court last night declined to get involved in that case.

NPR congressional reporter Eric McDaniel is here in Studio 31 to give us an update on how Democrats are preparing to respond to all this. Eric, good morning.

Good morning, good morning.

Okay, what do the preparations look like?

Well, I'll just say for Democrats in this constellation of good governance and nonpartisan groups, the election disruption effort is ongoing, right? They point to things like a million-dollar bounty offered by President Trump yesterday for election fraud tips that lead to a conviction, though it's unclear how or if that would be paid. Department of Justice lawsuits in Alaska and California, like you'd mentioned, the failed effort by the administration to restrict mail-in voting. It's all been the subject of legal fights and will be.

Next, these folks are worried about things like a federal election emergency declaration, which is something that doesn't exist in law, troops at the polls, illegal, or the president saying without providing any evidence that a foreign enemy has hacked voting machines. So they've been trying to link up with local election officials, pre-write legal filings, and get all of their talking points ready to go out and say the truth, which is that people should feel comfortable casting their ballots.

Okay, understand that. You just mentioned a number of things that the president might say or do that would be illegal if he said or did them. What is the pattern about how the president talks about elections?

Well, I I mean, I think you've mentioned this. The president's claimed fraud in every election he's been involved with, just for the benefit of folks who are too young to remember. In 2016, Trump said he'd won the popular vote. He just won the electoral college. When you discount millions of illegal votes, in 2018, he claimed there was electoral fraud in states like Arizona. The January 6th insurrection was about fraud claims in the 2020 presidential election. He told CNN that there was rigging going on in 2024.

It goes on and on. Last week, I talked to Representative Jim Himes. He's a Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, the ranking member there. He reminded me that he was actually in the Capitol during the January 6th insurrection and said it would be irresponsible for him and other Democrats not to be ready to combat fraud efforts.

And I guess we should just mention once again, uh, even the president's allies have never been able to substantiate the various claims of voter fraud in 2020 and other elections. But how does the White House describe what it's doing this time around?

Well, they say all of their work is to secure elections, which I should point out, election experts say is are already secure. Like Domenico mentioned, folks trust elections and election officials. I spent a good amount of time, though, this year reporting on the effort to get the Save America Act passed, which the White House claimed would protect the election by restricting mail-in voting and requiring folks to show proof of their citizenship status in order to stay registered to vote.

It failed due to a lack of Republican support in the Senate. Earlier this month, a reporter actually pressed the president on if he would honor the results. Listen to this.

What do you think? The answer is to that. What

This is a great example.

Of course I will. But we don't want you to.

And he went on to talk about I don't want cheating, I don't want cheating in an extended back and forth, which is part and parcel for how he's talked about this the whole time. And again, just to make it really explicit, there has never been credible evidence of voter fraud anywhere near the level to impact results of elections in the United States.

NPR congressional reporter Eric McDaniel, thanks so much.

Thanks, Steve.

Israelis are casting their ballots this morning in an election that many see as critical to their country's future.

This is the first time Israelis have had the chance to vote on their leaders since the Hamas attacks on October 7th, three years ago, and the wars that have followed in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, all conflicts that will be influenced by the outcome of this vote. Israel's far-right, longest-serving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu now faces a key challenger.

NPR's Ruth Sherlock is in Tel Aviv, out and about on the streets. And Ruth, where are you exactly? What are you seeing?

Hi Steve, I'm at a polling station near Tel Aviv, and, you know, we're seeing that the sense is that this is a really vital election for Israelis. We're expecting a very high voter turnout, well over 70% of the voting age population, and Israelis abroad are flying in to vote for what polls suggest is going to be a very close race. At this polling station, we're meeting people like Itamar Ariel, who support Netanyahu.

The best.

Says, Yes, there are problems in Israel, but nobody can replace Netanyahu, he says. For him, this is about security for Israel. But here's the thing, Steve. In the country, there are many people here who believe that it's for the security failures that Netanyahu should be voted out. They want to see a full investigation into exactly how the October 7th Hamas attacks in Israel could happen, something Netanyahu has blocked, and they're tired of the wars he's championing.

He says he's a straight man, an honest man. That's the grandfather. Netanyahu posted an AI generated image at the weekend of an atomic bomb exploding over Tel Aviv to remind Israelis of what he sees as the nuclear threat from Iran. One man at the polling station here said he called that sick, uh, saying that he thinks Netanyahu was trying to win votes by scaring Israelis.

I want to underline this though, Ruth. There's clearly a lot of Israelis who don't like the prime minister, yet he's won election after election after election. He finally was pushed out, he got his way back in. So what are the options for Israelis who don't support him?

Well, there are many parties running, but his primary challenger is Gadi Eisenkot. He's a former military chief of staff who's actually been part of Netanyahu's war cabinet. One of his sons and two of his nephews died in the war in Gaza. He now leads a center-right opposition, and that's promising more diplomacy, less extremism, an end to this Israeli increasing isolation of Israel abroad. Uh, we spoke with Ido and Itay, Opher Ami, a young man and his grandfather.

Itay was voting for the first time, and they s both support Eisenkot for change.

Shinoi, Kodokko, Niraali Ishamini, Shiasar, Estorikodnissim.

Says he's a straight man, an honest man. That's the grandfather. And his grandson says he wants less war and to address the cost of the living crisis here. And, you know, the issues that many voters care about, I really want to underline this, are not necessarily the ones that people focus on abroad, like the destruction of Gaza. It's also here about domestic questions, like whether Orthodox Jews should serve in the military.

Yeah, and I heard you mention cost of living, which is something that Americans are thinking about here in our election. So what's the timeline? When do we find out who won?

We should have a clearer picture by Wednesday morning, who which side has the most seats in Parliament, but the vote count can continue for days. And we won't know who the Prime Minister is because That will be determined by the parties in days and possible weeks of negotiation.

Listen to that helicopter go over. NPR's Ruth Sherlock at a polling station near Tel Aviv. Thanks so much.

Thank you.

And that's up first for this Tuesday, October 27th. I'm Steve Inskeep.

And I'm Michel Martin. Today's episode of Up First was edited by Jason Breslow, Tina Kraja, Mohamad ElBardicy, and Alice Woelfle. It was produced by Iman Maani and Nia Dumas. Our director is Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Neisha Heinis. Our technical director is Ariel Lopez. Our supervising senior producer is Vince Pearson, and special thanks to our colleagues at Michigan Public. We hope you'll join us again tomorrow.

And I'm Michel Martin. Today's episode of Up First was edited by Jason Breslow, Tina Kraja, Mohamad ElBardicy, and Alice Woelfle. It was produced by Iman Maani and Nia Dumas. Our director is Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Neisha Heinis. Our technical director is Ariel Lopez. Our supervising senior producer is Vince Pearson, and special thanks to our colleagues at Michigan Public. We hope you'll join us again tomorrow.

Hi, it's Terry Gross, host of Fresh Air. I interviewed Jon Turturro and he was great talking about learning to be a pickpocket for his new movie and how growing up in a volatile home helped him as an actor.

My brother said to me once, I've given you a lot of material. And I said, You know, you're really right. You're right. I said, but at a high cost.

Find it on the NPR app or wherever you listen to Fresh Air.

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