Topic
16 facts from 1 episode, in date order. These are what speakers said on the shows, each linked to the moment it was said. They aren't independently verified.
1974
Harry Enten says Mike Gravel in 1974 was the last Democrat to win an Alaska Senate race in a midterm year.
“the last time that Democrats won a United States Senate race in the great state of Alaska, and it happens to also be the last time they won in a midterm, was Mike Gravel in 1974.”
1988
Harry Enten says no Texas Democrat has polled as well as James Talerico since Lloyd Bentsen was elected in 1988.
“there has not been any example since Lloyd Bentsen was elected in 1988 of a Democrat polling as well as James Talerico is right now”
1988
Harry Enten says every presidential popular vote since 1988 has been decided by single digits, the longest such stretch since 1824.
“every national presidential election, the national popular vote has been within single digits since 1988.”
2000
Harry Enten says George W. Bush won Florida in 2000 because he carried the absentee vote, while Al Gore won the Election Day in-person vote.
“the reason that George Bush won the state of Florida in the 2,000 election was because he won the absentee vote”
2008
Harry Enten says Alaska has elected only one Democratic senator this century, Mark Begich in 2008.
“Alaska has elected one Democratic senator in the twenty first century, and that was Mark Begich in 2008.”
2018
Harry Enten says Beto O'Rourke outperformed his final polls in the 2018 Texas Senate race.
“Beto O'Rourke actually outperformed his final polls back in 2018”
2020
Harry Enten says Susan Collins beat her polling in 2008, 2014 and 2020, by at least five points each time.
“She's outperformed her polls, and not just by a little bit, but I think in each of those cases, it was at least five points, if not double digits”
2022
Harry Enten says that in the close Senate races of 2022 Democrats outperformed their final polling in every one.
“the Democrats outperformed their final polling in all of them.”
2024
Harry Enten says exit polls showed Donald Trump carrying Latino voters in Texas by ten points.
“Donald Trump carried the Latino vote in Texas by ten points, according to the exit polls.”
2024
Harry Enten says Donald Trump won Texas by thirteen points and Kansas by sixteen points in 2024.
“voted for Donald Trump by thirteen points in 2024. Kansas went for Donald Trump by sixteen”
2024
Harry Enten says presidential polling had a large error in 2020 but was accurate in 2024.
“2020, it was a big error, or historically speaking, but 2024 actually was perfectly fine.”
2026
Harry Enten says forecasters such as Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball show Democrats reaching a House majority without any toss-up races.
“Democrats reach a majority just by combining the lean likely and solid uh categories for them”
2026
Harry Enten says a CNN poll taken just after the primary had Abdul El-Sayed ahead by seven points in Michigan's Senate race.
“So we had a CNN poll that had Elsiad up seven, okay, after just after the primary”
2026
Harry Enten says Ohio Senator John Husted was appointed rather than elected, and that this difference matters to voters.
“Husted is an appointed incumbent, and there's a massive difference between being appointed and being elected.”
2026
Harry Enten says Roger Marshall is the least popular Republican Senate nominee in Kansas this late in a campaign this century.
“Roger Marshall, the least popular Republican Senate nominee in Kansas this late in the campaign this century, for sure.”
Undated
Harry Enten says that in the Trump era, Republican strength has been underestimated by about four points on average in close Senate races.
“It's been four points on average in close Senate races, that is Senate races in which the polling average before election day was within five points.”
Episodes