Topic
20 facts from 2 episodes, in date order. These are what speakers said on the shows, each linked to the moment it was said. They aren't independently verified.
1932
Nate Cohn noted that Kansas has not voted Democratic for the Senate since 1932 and said a Democratic win there is possible in the tsunami scenario.
“Maybe the Democrats win Kansas, a Senate state that hasn't voted Democratic since 1932, again, not just by a little bit, but by five points or more.”
1974
Nate Cohn said a Democratic tsunami would be the biggest election for either party since perhaps 1974, the election right after Watergate.
“I think you'd have to go back maybe to 1974, the election right after Watergate, to come up with something that felt this big.”
2010
Nate Cohn said it has been 16 years since a party won a Senate seat in a state that voted for the other side by double digits in the prior presidential election.
“It's been 16 years since a party won even one seat that voted for the other side by double digits in the prior presidential election.”
2026
Nate Cohn said Democrats need to win at least two Senate seats in states Donald Trump carried by double digits to take control of the Senate.
“whether they can win the Senate, where they need to win at least two seats that Donald Trump won by double digits.”
2026
Nate Cohn said the Times's final polls of the seven likeliest Senate-deciding states showed Democrats ahead in all seven.
“Our final polls of the seven states likeliest to decide the Senate show the Democrats ahead, even if sometimes only narrowly,”
2026
Nate Cohn said Republicans redrew congressional maps to their advantage over the past year, which shields many Republican House members from a Democratic wave.
“one factor is that the Republicans have redrawn the nation's congressional maps to their advantage over the last year.”
2026
Only one third of Senate seats are up in 2026, and Nate Cohn said few of them are vulnerable Republican seats.
“Only one third of the seats are at stake, and it so happens that this year there aren't very many vulnerable Republican seats up for grabs.”
2026
Nate Cohn said Democrats have done exceptionally well in the early vote, but Republicans may turn out on election day as they did in 2016 and 2020.
“It is very clear that the Democrats have done exceptionally well in the early vote. It is also possible, however, and we've seen this happen before, like in 2020 or 2016, that Republicans just show up to vote on election day.”
2026
Nate Cohn said Alaska's ranked-choice tabulation, if needed, would happen around November 18th.
“Yeah, and so, like in Alaska, I think that's November 18th.”
2026
Nate Cohn said Democrats' best case in the third scenario is about 53 Senate seats, possibly 54, and the minimum to win is 51.
“I think that the best case for Democrats in this scenario might be something like 53 seats in the Senate, maybe even 54, though I think that would be pretty lucky.”
2026
In the 'tsunami' scenario, Nate Cohn said Democrats could win the House popular vote by double digits and claim about 250 seats.
“In the House, the Democrats could win the popular vote by double digits and claim 250 seats, maybe.”
2026
Nate Cohn explained that typical pollsters now give extra weight to Trump voters so they match their share of the past vote, for example 50% in Pennsylvania.
“If I take a poll of Pennsylvania and Trump voters are 40% of the sample, and we know they were 50% of the vote, the typical pollster will make them 50% of the vote right now.”
2026
Nate Cohn said the Times's polls make sure to reach the correct number of registered Republicans in each state, which he said other pollsters do not guarantee.
“First is that we do everything we can to make sure we reach as many Trump voters as possible, including by ensuring that in any given state, we reach the correct number of registered Republicans.”
2026
Nate Cohn said the Times's final polls would have been three points more Democratic under the methodology it used in 2022 and 2024.
“And I'll note that our final polls, as blue as they were, would have been three points bluer.”
2026
Nate Cohn said two thirds of the Texas vote had already been cast, and that the Times's data showed it leaning Democratic.
“Or take Texas. Two thirds of the vote has already been cast in Texas. It's a big proportion, and in our data, it looks really Democratic.”
2026
Nate Cohn said the Times estimates favored Democrats to win the national vote by thirteen points.
“when we entered this room, the Democrats were favored in our estimates to win the national vote by thirteen points.”
2026
Nate Cohn said Mississippi's Senate race was essentially tied and that provisional ballots there have leaned Democratic in the past.
“where the race is essentially tied and where, in the past, provisional ballots have leaned Democratic.”
2026
Nate Cohn said Democrats performed especially well in Sunbelt battleground states such as North Carolina, Georgia and Texas.
“the Democrats did really well in a lot of potential Sunbelt battleground states like North Carolina, Georgia and Texas.”
2026
Nate Cohn said Donald Trump was the least popular political figure heading into a midterm since 1946 and his party suffered its worst drubbing in half a century.
“now he's the least popular political figure heading into a midterm since 1946, and his party just suffered the worst drubbing in a half century.”
Undated
Nate Cohn said Alaska's vote count takes about a week because of its far-flung, mail-voting population.
“Alaska, I think, has a better excuse, which is that it has this huge, far-flung population that's voting by mail, but that takes them a week to count.”
Episodes