Dan Pfeiffer said early-closing races in Kentucky's 6th and Indiana's 5th districts were wave indicators and that Democrats won both.
“And if we won Indiana five, it'd be the size, uh, it'd be a tsunami indicator, and we won both of those races.”
Person
Dan Pfeiffer
5 episodes · 29 quoted claims
Dan Pfeiffer said Florida Republicans tried to eliminate three Democratic House seats through redistricting, but Jared Moskowitz, Darren Soto and Kathy Castor all won easily.
“in Florida, they were trying to eliminate three Democrats. JArREd Moskowitz, Darren Soto and Kathy Castor, all three of them won with relative ease.”
Dan Pfeiffer said Georgia legislative Republicans had planned to redraw congressional maps next year, but a Democratic governor now blocks that.
“already said they're gonna redraw the maps in Georgia next year. And now they cannot do that because we have the governorship.”
Dan Pfeiffer said Elon Musk spent about $200 million in Texas alone trying to help Ken Paxton win the Senate race.
“He spent $200 million in Texas alone.”
Dan Pfeiffer said Democratic campaigns and super PACs reserved ad time early, which lowered their rates and narrowed Republicans' advertising advantage.
“Because if you the earlier you buy your ads, the lower rate you have.”
Dan Pfeiffer argued that Texas must become a battleground state by 2028 and that, by 2032, Democrats would have no sustainable Electoral College path without it.
“Texas has to be a battleground state in 2028, and once you get to twenty thirty two, there is no real path to a sustainable Electoral College majority without Texas.”
Dan Pfeiffer recalled that after Democrats won the House in the 2006 midterms, Nancy Pelosi became the first female Speaker of the House.
“Nancy Pelosi becomes the first female speaker, it's it's a gigantic deal.”
Dan Pfeiffer said the Democratic Congress elected in 2006 got President George W. Bush to sign a minimum wage bill.
“The Democrats actually did get Bush to sign a minimum wage bill in that period”
Jamie Harrison received about 44 percent of the vote in the 2020 South Carolina Senate race against Lindsey Graham.
“forty four percent is what Jamie Harrison got in 2020 in that senate race.”
Democrats invested in North Carolina's 9th congressional district, which Trump won by double digits and is the home district of NRCC chair Richard Hudson.
“Democrats put money into North Carolina nine, which is a district that Trump won by double digits. It's also the home district of Richard Hudson”
Dan Pfeiffer said allies of Trump recruited Kanye West to run for president in 2020 hoping to draw Black voters from Joe Biden.
“allies of Trump recruited Kanye West to run for president in the hope that it would siphon Black voters away from Joe Biden.”
Florida's 27th district is held by Maria Elvira Salazar, who ran an ad breaking with Trump on immigration.
“That's the Maria Elvira Salazar seat. She's the one who did that very aggressive ad, sort of breaking with Trump on immigration.”
Alabama's 2nd district was redrawn by Republicans after the Callais decision, and Democrat Shomari Figures is the incumbent there.
“this is the district that the Republicans redrew after the Clay decision. This is Shomari Figures, who is in this race, is the incumbent Democrat.”
Dan Pfeiffer said Republicans led the 2022 generic ballot by about three points and won the House vote by about two and a half.
“The Republicans never had anywhere near a eight point, nine point, ten point, eleven point generic ballot lead. It was like three points, and they ended up winning by like two and a half.”
Dan Pfeiffer said polls in 2025 underestimated Democrats by about six points in Virginia and about ten in New Jersey.
“That is what happened in 2025 when, um, in Virginia, there was a six point error, and in, uh, north New Jersey, it was almost it was a ten point error, all underestimating Democrats.”
Dan Pfeiffer said Donald Trump won white voters without a college degree with 66% in 2024 but has only 51% approval among them in the Times/Siena poll.
“He won them with sixty six of the vote. In this poll, his approval rating among those voters is now 51%.”
Dan Pfeiffer said the Democratic candidate in the previous Mississippi Senate race lost by only ten points.
“And in the last time there was a Senate race in Mississippi, the Democrat the Democrat only lost by ten points.”
Dan Pfeiffer said Jaime Harrison received about 43.8% of the vote in the 2020 South Carolina Senate race.
“Jamie Harrison got 44% of the vote. It was like 43.8% of the vote.”
Dan Pfeiffer said the site Fifty Plus One, run by former FiveThirtyEight figure G. Elliott Morris, flagged a suspicious Wedgewood poll and reran it, leading them to believe the numbers were faked.
“fifty plus one, which is the site that G. Elliott Morris formerly five thirty eight, and now has, uh, Substack”
Dan Pfeiffer argued that a fake Wedgewood poll damaged Mallory McMorrow's Michigan Senate primary campaign and contributed to her leaving the race.
“there's no question that this fake poll damaged her campaign and kind of kicked off a death spiral that forced her to leave the race.”
Dan Pfeiffer cited Nate Silver's account of two fake polling firms from the 2010s, Strategic Vision and Research 2000.
“two firms in the twenty tens, Strategic Vision and Research 2,000 that were fake poll firms”
Dan Pfeiffer said Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator in 94 years.
“Ninety four years. Herbert Hoover was president. Donald Trump not even born.”
Dan Pfeiffer said Trump won Kansas by 16 points and that the state has not elected a Democratic senator in about 94 years.
“That's a state that Trump won by 16 points, hasn't elected a Democratic senator since Herbert Hoover was president, 94 years.”
Dan Pfeiffer said polls in 2025 underestimated Democrats, particularly in New Jersey.
“And the polls were quite wrong in 2025. They d underestimated Democrats or overestimated Republican turnout”
Pfeiffer recalled that in 2006 Democrat Jim Webb defeated Republican Senator George Allen, then seen as a leading contender for the presidential nomination, in Virginia.
“Jim Webb, a very, very powerful candidate on paper, beating a guy who was the leading contender to be the R next Republican nominee”
Pfeiffer said Trump campaigned in Alabama's redrawn 2nd district, held by Democrat Shomari Figures, where Black turnout could be very high.
“Trump campaigned there recently. Um, and that. But because of what could be a sky high turnout in BL- in among Black voters after the Collette decision.”
Dan Pfeiffer said no Democrat had won a Senate seat in Kansas in 94 years.
“a Democrat has not won a Senate seat in since in 94 years”
Dan Pfeiffer said Republicans outspent Democrats by 25% on ads in September.
“even despite all the money, like in the month of September, Republicans outspent Democrats by 25%.”
Dan Pfeiffer said Barack Obama was coming to Ohio to campaign for Sherrod Brown within days.
“President Obama's coming to campaign for you, I believe, in the next couple days here.”