2008
Nate Cohn said the previous recent high for Democrats was a ten-point win in the 2008 House vote.
“The highest in recent memory was when the Democrats won by ten in 2008 in the House vote.”
Topic
Democratic Party
27 facts from 12 episodes, in date order. These are what speakers said on the shows, each linked to the moment it was said. They aren't independently verified.
2022
Harry Enten says that in the close Senate races of 2022 Democrats outperformed their final polling in every one.
“the Democrats outperformed their final polling in all of them.”
2026
Jon Favreau said Democrats led the generic congressional ballot by just over nine points with eighteen days until the midterm elections.
“All right, eighteen days until the midterms, Dems lead the generic ballot by just over nine points.”
2026
Dan Pfeiffer said Republicans outspent Democrats by 25% on ads in September.
“even despite all the money, like in the month of September, Republicans outspent Democrats by 25%.”
2026
Walter said a generic Democrat leads by about 23 points among independents.
“they're leading right now by like twenty three points, a generic democrat, uh, with independents.”
2026
According to Washington Post and Politico analyses, Democrats have spent more than 30 million dollars on Epstein-related ads in battleground states.
“according to analysis pieces in both the Washington Post and Politico, uh, Democrats have also spent north of $30 million on Epstein-related ads in battleground states.”
2026
The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found Democrats were ten points more likely than Republicans to say they were very enthusiastic about voting.
“Democrats are ten points more likely than Republicans to say that they are, quote, very enthusiastic about voting.”
2026
Democrats need to gain four Senate seats for control, and Domenico Montanaro says they could net only one or two, or as many as six or seven.
“So Democrats could net a seat or two in the Senate, which would not be enough. They need four, or they could win six or seven.”
2026
The poll found Republicans were 20 points less likely than Democrats to expect a fair election and 20 points less likely to say their candidate should definitely accept the results.
“Republicans, though, were 20 points less likely to say so than Democrats, and they were also 20 points less likely than Democrats to believe that their candidate should definitely accept the results of the election.”
2026
Democrats and good-governance groups are worried about a federal election emergency declaration, which Eric McDaniel says does not exist in law.
“these folks are worried about things like a federal election emergency declaration, which is something that doesn't exist in law”
2026
Nate Silver's forecast model gave Democrats about a 95 percent chance of flipping the House and about 80 percent for the Senate at the time of recording.
“Flipper Nate's model has the chance of Democrats flipping the House at 95%, uh, and the Senate is around 80%.”
2026
Nate Cohn said Democrats have done exceptionally well in the early vote, but Republicans may turn out on election day as they did in 2016 and 2020.
“It is very clear that the Democrats have done exceptionally well in the early vote. It is also possible, however, and we've seen this happen before, like in 2020 or 2016, that Republicans just show up to vote on election day.”
2026
Nate Cohn said Democrats' best case in the third scenario is about 53 Senate seats, possibly 54, and the minimum to win is 51.
“I think that the best case for Democrats in this scenario might be something like 53 seats in the Senate, maybe even 54, though I think that would be pretty lucky.”
2026
In the 'tsunami' scenario, Nate Cohn said Democrats could win the House popular vote by double digits and claim about 250 seats.
“In the House, the Democrats could win the popular vote by double digits and claim 250 seats, maybe.”
2026
Jon Favreau said Democrats spent more than $200 million in Texas alone and treated that as a test of how much money matters in politics.
“the 200 million plus that they spent in just Texas alone doesn't do it”
2026
Republicans controlled both the House and Senate going into Election Day, while Democrats had a chance to retake at least one chamber.
“Republicans reach this day in control of both houses of Congress, while Democrats have a chance to recapture at least one.”
2026
Early voting data showed increased turnout among Black voters, especially in the South, and young voters, groups that tend to support Democrats.
“There's a notable increase in Black voter turnout, especially in the South, notable among young voters and pretty much every group that tends to support Democrats.”
2026
Democrats flipped control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate from Republicans.
“Yeah, that party flipped control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate from Republicans with wins in deep red states.”
2026
Barbara Sprung says Democrats are wary of impeaching Trump, which would be their third impeachment of him.
“I think Democrats are wary about jumping into an impeachment of the president. It would be their third time.”
2026
Nate Cohn said Democrats would win at least fifty-four Senate seats, including at least five the president won by double digits.
“the Democrats will win at least fifty-four seats in the Senate, including at least five seats that the president won by double digits in the last election.”
2026
The speaker said Democrats had passed the 218 seats needed to win the House and were heading toward a historically large majority.
“They have surpassed the 218 seats that they need, and they're on their way to potentially historically large majorities”
2026
Nate Cohn said the Times estimates favored Democrats to win the national vote by thirteen points.
“when we entered this room, the Democrats were favored in our estimates to win the national vote by thirteen points.”
2026
In Iowa, Democrats won the governorship and a Senate seat and flipped three of four House seats, according to the speaker.
“In Iowa, you had Democrats win the governor's mansion, the Senate seat, and flip three of the four congressional seats.”
2026
Nate Cohn said Democrats performed especially well in Sunbelt battleground states such as North Carolina, Georgia and Texas.
“the Democrats did really well in a lot of potential Sunbelt battleground states like North Carolina, Georgia and Texas.”
2026
Lisa Lair said Democrats in Minnesota, Michigan and Maine ran self-described progressives, unlike the post-partisan candidates in Kansas, Texas and Iowa.
“those are states where Democrats ran self-proclaimed progressives, candidates who saw themselves on the more left flank of the party”
2030
Mara Liasson says Democrats are expected to lose electoral votes in blue-wall states after the 2030 census and reapportionment.
“They're gonna be losing electoral votes in the blue wall states after the twenty thirty census and reapportionment.”
Undated
Rogan read survey figures saying about 78% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents identify with a religion, compared with about 60% of Democrats.
“78% of Republicans, Republican-leaning independents identify with a religion. So with Democrats, it's about 60%.”
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